That's my opinion as well.

Your avatar is on the line. Don't be fooled. I made this bet because it seems impossible. But it's actually kind of doable.

Don't confuse "doable" with "theoretically possible". Would be awesome if it did but I'm still very pessimistic about the whole gen in general.

It seems kinda unreal and actually I'm seeing PS4 barely at 2:1 weekly.

Again, average weeks is misleading. ps4 is very capable of 200k per week..

ok look, here's just a small breakdown, because now I want that avatar.

last year, ps4 sold 65% of it's total sales over a 42 week period starting january.
And almost 47% by September 1st.

Over the same time it took x1 42 weeks to hit 45% of sales. 55% of sales in the last 10 weeks, and only 2.2m by sept.1 out of 8m....barely 26%

Looking at the numbers for the year:
If ps4 does 18m, then we'll see somewhere around 8m by sept 1.
Same for x1 at say 8m, and we'll see 2m

This would put numbers at sept 1 at 26.8m ps4 and 13.1m x1...even if ps4 sells a full million less (on course for under 15m YTD) it will be close.

I am expecting a ps4 price drop at e3 or even in march, alongside bloodborne.

Chinese national release
Price drop
Big first party releases

How bout this. If I win, I get your avatar for life or until I decide to give it back to you.

Simple math says you are wrong. 

As of January 2014, PS4 was ~4.2M and XB1 was ~3.3M. Approximately 30% lead to the PS4.

As of January 2015, PS4 is 18.5 and XB1 is ~11M. That's approximately a 42% advantage to the PS4.

As long as the PS4 keeps selling better than the XB1 every year, then it means its overall lead is growing and it will just be a matter of time. Having said that, I don't think its happening this year, but maybe around 2016/2017.

That math doesn't add up. Even if from now on the PS4 sold double as much as X1 weekly it would never reach 2:1 LTD. People forget that to close a gap you need to sell the ratio you desire and then some. PS4 didn't even manage to sell 2:1 last year. I'm almost confident that it will manage to do it this year but it will lack the additional sales to lock it down LTD.

*eats popcorn*

OT: theprof00, you still didn't tell me if you accept my bet. :(

I could only see this happening if Sony dropped to $299 by June. I don't see that happening so be very surprised if it doubled X1 even in 2016.

The mistake you are making is you're predicting a boost for PS4 while pretending X1 will stay flat. Sure, there is no Titanfall this year but overall the base will be higher, which will make up for the big sellers.

I never bet everything, no matter how sure I am about things.

Let's make it a gentlemen's agreement. If your prediction is correct I will choose myself an Avatar in honor of your mad preduction skillz, or maybe just something in my sig if I can't find something nice. If you lose, you may choose a way to atone in a way you see fit.

Yep, I'm also waiting for a confirmation.