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Xbox Undertracked!!

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Ka-pi96 said:
binary solo said:

Freudian slip? LoL. if you want to make sure there is no accidental or deliberate misinterpretation you should write "...for XB1 and a dying 360."

Anyway, 3.3M on shelves across both systems is not as big a discrepancy as it looks. I wouldn't be surprised if Xb one had 1.5 million on shelves at present. That's about the maximum extent of what I think might be in the retail channels so for a what's possible analysis I think you can say 1.5M of that 3.3M is Xb one.

So that leaves 1.8M for 360, I agree that's too much, but not so much as to be an outrageous discrepancy. Even for a dying system 1 million in the retail channel is within the bounds of possibility, considering all the markets and retail outlets they need to have covered. 360 is still being actively marketed, indeed here it's probably being marketed more strongly than XB one. All the boxing day sale ads were PS4 and Xbox 360 for instance, no Xb one boxing day promotions. In terms of what's possible I think 800K-1 million on shelves is theoretically possible. MS could, for instance, have decided to ship out half a year's worth of projected 360 sales. And if MS is looking to kill off 360 manufacturing this year they might want to get end of life inventory out into the retail channels sooner rather than later.  

360 could be, IMO, up to 1 million undertracked, which is only 1.16% error. but even at 1.5M it's still only a 1.74% error. If it wasn't for the fact that this error rate is the difference between being ahead of PS3 and being behind PS3 would this thread actually exist? Or would we say, actually VGC's LTD tracking of 360 isn't too bad. IMO, objectively speaking if the LTD for a console on VGC is within 2% of actual sales (which no one knows with 100% accuracy) that is good enough for all practical purposes.

Most of the current 360 sales and marketing is in the US though, one country doesn't need that much stock. Besides I remember people claiming 400k on shelves was way too much for the Wii U, because of its low sales, earlier in the year. Of course I disagree and think 400k was pretty reasonable, but considering the 360 is selling less than the Wii U it is logical that retailers would order less stock right? So the stock levels would be more likely to around the 400k level than the 800k-1m level.

Besides that 1.5m for Xbox One really does seem a lot. This is the stock levels at the end of December we are talking about, right after all of their sales and deals and all the xmas shopping. Stock on shelves would probably be at their lowest at that point of the year.

It's about what's possible. No one knows stock inventory absolutely and as far as we know no one knows sell through absolutely. Until MS comes out and says X.Y million sell through it's all largely guess work. Is it possible for 1.5M Xb one's to be on shop shelves? Yes, I think that's possible. Is it possible that there's less than that? Yes it's possible. I don't think it's likely there's more than 1.5 million on shelves. For the purposes of assessing the tracking performance of VGC it would seem that the curernt Xb one LTD is pretty good, perhaps a little over tracked, probably not undertracked. Potentially dead on to within just a few thousand units. 

In terms of 360 LTD, being less than 2% out (undertracked) is objectively pretty good. As I said, the only reason people are making a thing about this level of potential undertracking is becuase it's the difference between 2nd and 3rd for gen 7. In 5 year's time if PS4 is at 80 million and Xb one is at 35 million will people really get animated about Xb one being 1 million undertracked (or over tracked)? 36 (or 34) million vs 35 million is neither here nor there in terms of Xb one's objective performance for the generation. And 84.5M vs 86M is also neither here nor there in terms of 360's objective performance for gen 7.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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DJEVOLVE said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Annnnd you've derailed the thread.

Nice one!

The thread is about xbox numbers, putting Xbox 360 in second place is about it's numbers and has everything to do with the thread, However your post about derailing the thread is actually the post to do so.

NICE ONE!


If you can't see it then I can't convince you. Didn't think the thread was about the PS3 at all but about Xbox numbers.

Even if it was about PS3 vs 360 he put his OPINION over as FACT and in antagonising way to flame.

What he did is make the thread about PS and Xbox. Now instead of people talking about the Xbox numbers, which is what the thread is about, they are arguing over PS vs Xbox.

That my friend is derailing.

Notice how my "derailing" comment didn't sway the whole nature of the thread!



Seece said:
psrock said:
You don't think there could be 3 million consoles out there for two consoles. I'll be more worried by the fact MS hasn't announced 10 million sold to consumers yet for the one.

Nobody is worried about that psrock. (They won't announce it either).

And no I don't, XB1 I admit can be high, not 360, not at this point.

They will when they reach it. There are tons of Xbox out there. It's a big milestone.



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)

But the XBox sold ~24M and VGC has it at ~24M... i see minor undertracking at best.



psrock said:
Seece said:
psrock said:
You don't think there could be 3 million consoles out there for two consoles. I'll be more worried by the fact MS hasn't announced 10 million sold to consumers yet for the one.

Nobody is worried about that psrock. (They won't announce it either).

And no I don't, XB1 I admit can be high, not 360, not at this point.

They will when the reach it. There are tons of Xbox out there. 

They've already reached it. Their 10m announcement (which was shipped) has come and gone, they're not going to do another 10m figure regardless of what it is.



 

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Going with the radios XB1 is still 100-300k undertaked and 360 was number 1 last gen if you look at hardware and software sales.



Seece said:
psrock said:
Seece said:
psrock said:
You don't think there could be 3 million consoles out there for two consoles. I'll be more worried by the fact MS hasn't announced 10 million sold to consumers yet for the one.

Nobody is worried about that psrock. (They won't announce it either).

And no I don't, XB1 I admit can be high, not 360, not at this point.

They will when the reach it. There are tons of Xbox out there. 

They've already reached it. Their 10m announcement (which was shipped) has come and gone, they're not going to do another 10m figure regardless of what it is.

I agree that they have shipped over 10 million. Sold , that's no way confirmed anywhere.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
psrock said:
Seece said:
psrock said:
Seece said:
psrock said:
You don't think there could be 3 million consoles out there for two consoles. I'll be more worried by the fact MS hasn't announced 10 million sold to consumers yet for the one.

Nobody is worried about that psrock. (They won't announce it either).

And no I don't, XB1 I admit can be high, not 360, not at this point.

They will when the reach it. There are tons of Xbox out there. 

They've already reached it. Their 10m announcement (which was shipped) has come and gone, they're not going to do another 10m figure regardless of what it is.

I agree that they have shipped over 10 million. Sold , that's no way confirmed anywhere.

We have a good enough idea with the figures we have. 11m sellthrough VGC shows seems to be accurate given what's on shelves.

And you don't need to "agree" they've shipped over 10m, that ones a fact.



 

colafitte said:
kowenicki said:
Seece said:

So MS just released figures and they shipped 6.6m Xbox consoles during the holiday Q.

My estimates (though they are irrelavant to overal Xbox console sales if you notice the title) are that 4.5m are XB1 and 2.1m are 360. This puts 360 at around 86.9m and XB1 around 11.9m.

However you spin the ratios, it's a fact that combined they're at 98.8 million shipped.

We have 95.5m sold, that leaves 3.3m on shelves which is a lot for dying 360 and XB1.

FYI, I don't think XB1 is undertracked, just 360, heavily. (like 1.5m~)

yeps.  undeniable.

360 still in 2nd, never left 2nd and will remain 2nd.  PS3 is dying much quicker.

fact.

Xbox 360 is undeniably undertracked here, but you base PS3 is behind and dying much quicker based on....???

I want the receipts to consider it a FACT, please.

His argument is that if the PS4 is overtracked, then most likely the XBO is still pretty much spot on, making the gap smaller.  And if the 360 is undertracked, then the PS3 is pretty much spot on, which means the 360 remained in 2nd.  Of course, it's probably safer to assume they are both undertracked.  360 is still doing ok in the US and UK, while the PS3 is still doing ok in the rest of EU.

@OP

Well, going by AMD's numbers the XBO shipped ~11M so far.  So that leads to ~87.8M for the 360.  Depending how much MS put into channels, it looks like your estimate of an undertracking of ~1.5M is correct.  Might even be a little more.



teigaga said:

PS3 is gonna win the race regardless of whether its 2nd or 3rd atm


PS3 already won in my opinion since its software still sells the best nowadays and it gets the most games coming out for it from the 7th gen