No, you guys always say the same, Captain Toad is gonna be a fail , Hyrule Warriors is not even going to reach 0.5m and now Splatoon is niche and all the hype is only an illusion that only exist on this single forum. No, there´s actually hype around the game, you can see it on internet, and you will see it climbing  on the pre-order charts in few months, the less you believe it, the more you´ll be surprised. 

(So you think is going to sell like w101?... 300k on 2 years... really??)

whatever nintendo did to make tomodachi life a success needs to happen again with splatoon

Of course not. It won't push anywhere close to the amount of systems Mario Kart 8 or Smash pushed. (That's a prediction, hold me to it)

I don't know about SYSTEM seller, but it could be a big seller simply because it's going to be a big online game. I would like to say that perhaps Devil's Third could also be a similarly big online title, but only IF Nintendo feels like getting their money worth, and actually promotes it hard.

Absolutely not. It won't even do decent numbers. At this point, Nintendo just wants to keep the fanbase happy and look forward to the next platform.

Splatoon is interesting in that it could serve as a sort of "my first FPS". It will let kids whose parents won't by them COD still get that kind of experience. It will be interesting to see how the genre does without violence as a selling point.

Could be a big seller. Could also fall flat on its face.

It will likely provide a temporary bump, especially if it has a bundle. Also, where the Wii U's price is at when it launches will be a big factor. If it falls to $250 before it launches, it could have a bigger impact. But the ammount of selling power it has also depends on marketing and so on. Nintendo's been giving it a lot of attention in Directs and of course it had a major presence at E3 and a lot of the press seem to love it. But there's still a lot of variables. So I'm going to give it a "maybe" for it being a serious seller. I do think it's a good choice for a summer title and a nice game to lead into the season.

No it isn't and I'll be surprised if that game even breaks a million sold.

That story sounds incredibly made up.

As for Splatoon, I have no idea how it'll do.

Captain Toad is a recognizable Nintendo character and the game was sold for $40 during the holiday season. Hyrule Warriors had a Zelda theme which made it more popular in the West. And hype on the internet? If the internet and gaming forums are to be believed then Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, and other big yearly releases should be commercial flops and games like Bayonetta 2 should sell in droves, yet that isn't remotely true. The average consumer has a much different mindset than gamers on the internet.