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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 and X1 shipped nearly 30 million consoles at the end of 2014 according to AMD

GribbleGrunger on 24 January 2015
Aura7541 said:

But the publicly available data from Microsoft have been shipments. The only time we got sold through numbers from MS was at the beginning of 2014 and then, MS combined 360 & X1 shipments.

I'm just reporting what gaf is now talking about. I haven't got a clue myself.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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Aura7541 on 24 January 2015
GribbleGrunger said:
Aura7541 said:

But the publicly available data from Microsoft have been shipments. The only time we got sold through numbers from MS was at the beginning of 2014 and then, MS combined 360 & X1 shipments.

I'm just reporting what gaf is now talking about. I haven't got a clue myself.

I see. I'm confused as well because AMD makes it sound like it is almost 30 million sold to consumers with the use of "end users". However, AMD's mention of "publicly available data" just brings us back to square one.



Jabbamk1 on 24 January 2015

It says "mostly" public data. AMD have access to sell through figures for both, after all they supply both MS and Sony. 

AMD is talking sold through to end consumers. 

Nearly 30 million cumulative units have been sold through by Microsoft and Sony.

We know 18.5m is PS4. Xbox One will be less than 11.5m. 



GribbleGrunger on 24 January 2015
Aura7541 said:

I see. I'm confused as well because AMD makes it sound like it is almost 30 million sold to consumers with the use of "end users". However, AMD's mention of "publicly available data" just brings us back to square one.

Exactly. Are they using Sony's and Microsoft's numbers to evaluate those numbers? If so, where are they getting Microsoft's numbers from? I'm really confused now.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


czecherychestnut on 24 January 2015
GribbleGrunger said:

Perhaps 11m XB1 is actually right. I've been reading Gaf and it appears as if AMD is talking in terms of 'sold through' to customers and not 'shipped' in the sense we are normally used to:

We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.

Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.

So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.

I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.

Here is the link to the earnings transcript where the above comes from:  http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=200&d=2&id=5178684

 

Looks like it comes down to how much inventory is in the channel and what the sellthrough is. If PS4 shipments are at 19 million, it would make XB1 shipments around 11 million, which would still make sell-through less than 11 million, but in this case we are talking an overtrack of 300-500k, not 1 mil+ like we thought earlier



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GribbleGrunger on 24 January 2015
czecherychestnut said:

Here is the link to the earnings transcript where the above comes from:  http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=200&d=2&id=5178684

 

Looks like it comes down to how much inventory is in the channel and what the sellthrough is. If PS4 shipments are at 19 million, it would make XB1 shipments around 11 million, which would still make sell-through less than 11 million, but in this case we are talking an overtrack of 300-500k, not 1 mil+ like we thought earlier

I've always considered the potential overtrack to be between 500k - 700k anyway. We can meet halfway and call it 500k. :)



 

The PS5 Exists. 


thismeintiel on 24 January 2015
czecherychestnut said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Perhaps 11m XB1 is actually right. I've been reading Gaf and it appears as if AMD is talking in terms of 'sold through' to customers and not 'shipped' in the sense we are normally used to:

We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.

Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.

So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.

I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.

Here is the link to the earnings transcript where the above comes from:  http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=200&d=2&id=5178684

 

Looks like it comes down to how much inventory is in the channel and what the sellthrough is. If PS4 shipments are at 19 million, it would make XB1 shipments around 11 million, which would still make sell-through less than 11 million, but in this case we are talking an overtrack of 300-500k, not 1 mil+ like we thought earlier

It's also kinda hard to know exactly what AMD considers nearly.  Is it Sony's nearly, where they are just a few 10K-100K out.  Or is it MS's recent nearly, where they were most likely 1M-2M away from their 10M figure.



 

fleischr on 24 January 2015
Jabbamk1 said:

It says "mostly" public data. AMD have access to sell through figures for both, after all they supply both MS and Sony. 

AMD is talking sold through to end consumers. 

Nearly 30 million cumulative units have been sold through by Microsoft and Sony.

We know 18.5m is PS4. Xbox One will be less than 11.5m. 


Nope. AMD only tracks the goods they supply MS and Sony.

Some millions of units are still in distribution, still on the shelf



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

Jabbamk1 on 24 January 2015
fleischr said:
Jabbamk1 said:

It says "mostly" public data. AMD have access to sell through figures for both, after all they supply both MS and Sony. 

AMD is talking sold through to end consumers. 

Nearly 30 million cumulative units have been sold through by Microsoft and Sony.

We know 18.5m is PS4. Xbox One will be less than 11.5m. 


Nope. AMD only tracks the goods they supply MS and Sony.

Some millions of units are still in distribution, still on the shelf

You're right, they do track the number of units they supply MS and Sony. 

But in this case they are explicitely stating sell through numbers in their earnings call. It does become clear when you read the report. 

 

AMD are not reporting sell in number, nor are they reporting production or supplied amount of SOC's. If they were the number would be much higher than 30m as you need to account for production yield as not ever SOC will be used in a device + not ever device produced will be shipped to channel straight away. 

 

Read their report, do some research on supply chain and production. Then come back to me. 



Insidb on 25 January 2015
thismeintiel said:
czecherychestnut said:
GribbleGrunger said:

Perhaps 11m XB1 is actually right. I've been reading Gaf and it appears as if AMD is talking in terms of 'sold through' to customers and not 'shipped' in the sense we are normally used to:

We are pleased with the full-year performance of the semi-custom business and the strong sell-through reported by our customers. Nearly 30 million Sony and Microsoft consoles have now shipped.

Let me just clarify. In terms of the unit shipments, those are unit shipments from our customers to end users, and most of that is publicly available data from what Sony and Microsoft have published.

So relative to historical, I think most people will say that historically, the game console shipments in this generation are higher than in the previous generation. And you can come up with all kinds of reasons for that; some of that is the price points that they've chosen. I think that certainly helped the holiday season. Some of that is its software titles that are available at a given point in time.

I think the main thing is as we look at any holiday season, we want to make sure that there's not a lot of inventory that's sitting with our customers, and we see that that's fairly well balanced. So that gives us confidence as you go into 2015 and you see new titles that are launched, and those come out, that it should be a fairly normal market.

Here is the link to the earnings transcript where the above comes from:  http://ir.amd.com/mobile.view?c=74093&v=200&d=2&id=5178684

 

Looks like it comes down to how much inventory is in the channel and what the sellthrough is. If PS4 shipments are at 19 million, it would make XB1 shipments around 11 million, which would still make sell-through less than 11 million, but in this case we are talking an overtrack of 300-500k, not 1 mil+ like we thought earlier

It's also kinda hard to know exactly what AMD considers nearly.  Is it Sony's nearly, where they are just a few 10K-100K out.  Or is it MS's recent nearly, where they were most likely 1M-2M away from their 10M figure.

By AMD's own verbatim, these are units shipped by Sony and MS ("our customers") to retailers ("end users"). Sony and MS only ship directly to final purchasers from their own stores, which is the vast minority of sales, and it makes no sense that AMD would know the sales data of their customer's customers. I work with chip suppliers, and they only ever ask what we will need and sell us the lot (We have to put the order in up front.). To build on that, Sony has publicly stated sell through to end users (us) for Q4Y14, but MS has not. MS has announced shipment numbers quite consistently, however, so the only logical conclusion I can draw is that this is a reference to shipments from MS and Sony to distributors.