I was waiting for today's NPD to pose the question. MS's price cut also makes things more interesting now.

Going by the assumption that the gap is currently somewhere between 500k and 600k, what do you think it'll land on by October?

500 or 600k the other way

Personally, I see it tie up but october. And by the end of the year, I see around 500k-1000k in favor of XBOX ONE.

the thing is...

Ps4 line for Q1 and Q2 Destroys x1 line, plus the impact of the $350 from january 16 will not be as massive as the first $350 from 2014.
I have to say, even at $350 X1 is going to lose in Q1 and Q2, in US and worldwide, so i think that at october 2015 the gap will be at 1M in favor of Ps4.

I guess you know what the result would have been by December 2015, so you shortened it to October. I say by October 2015 the gap will be XB1 +200k, unless a huge AAA exclusive is released.

1.8 millions ps4 favor

PS4 got some heat for the first half of 2015. I don't see anything projected for Xbox One. Hopefully they'll have something that can keep their sales stable. The exclusives from PS4 will keep the sales ahead in the U.S.

No. Just easier to predict because of less holiday wildness.

I went for 1M. While the X1 has a slight price advantage, it lacks a sufficient library for the first half of 2015 to compete against the PS4's. Not to mention, the PS4 has several other upcoming games outside of the ones for Q1 and Q2.

1.2 Million for Ps4 favor.

Both consoles will drop to 300 $/€/30000 yen for E3 2015.