generic-user-1 said:
the ecomony in greece will turn at somepoint (1), when the instability is gone europe will make greece its factory for cheap stuff (2), the wages are allready lower than in china (3), and its a lot closer than china. northern europe is doing fine atm (4), and even states like france have way better chances for a real recovery than the us (5). on the other hand, working 10 years or so in SE asia could be way cooler than working in a small town n southern germany or denmark, or sweden (6). |
(1) Not disputing that. But "somepoint" could be a lifetime away. A lost generation.
(2) Instability seems to be increasing, that's why the Euro is sliding recently. Again, one day stability will return to the region, but there's no saying when.
(3) Unfortunately, it requires a lot more than low wages. For many decades, the United States was the largest exporter in the world with the highest wages in the world, wages are only a tiny, tiny piece of the puzzle. There needs to be easy access to capital, young workforce, business-friendly regulatory and tax environment, the EU itself makes the last two things impossible. And Greek businesses won't have access to capital for, well, generations. Not only does this crisis need to end, but there's also going to have to be a whole lot of confidence-growing and a whole bunch of savings going on. Capital comes from savings, that's the true secret to Asian success. People here save up to a third of their incomes.
(4) The economies of Northern Europe may be chugging along, but they have a lot of fundamental problems that are yet to rear their ugly heads. Large sovereign debts, and huge unfunded liabilities. These things will be a drag on these economies in the near future.
(5) Large population of French expats here in Hong Kong. All share similar mindsets - they love their home country, but they'll never go back. These are the smartest people that France are producing, and they are fleeing the country. They do not believe in the future of France, and there's little evidence suggesting they should. French politics seems to be driven more by jealousy and greed than by sound economic policy. France's best and brightest don't want to pay half of their incomes to the tax man.
(6) Agreed.