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Forums - Politics Discussion - Thoughts/predictions on the 2016 USA presidential election

 

Who will be the next president?

Hillary Clinton 47 51.09%
 
Joe Biden 3 3.26%
 
Martin O'Mally 0 0%
 
Mitt Romney 5 5.43%
 
Jeb Bush 5 5.43%
 
Chris Christie 2 2.17%
 
Rand Paul 15 16.30%
 
Marco Rubio 3 3.26%
 
Scott Walker 0 0%
 
Other 12 13.04%
 
Total:92

Rand Paul vs Jerry Brown and the whole world will watch and be jealous or bush vs clinton and one half of the world will start digging holes to hide and the other will laugh histericaly



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Bush versus Clinton show down and I have a feeling Jeb Bush will beat Hillary Clinton. Third Bush for President in 2016!



Pretty sure Huckabee will make a successful run for the Republican primary. The last few elections has shown that it isn't who is best that will win. But who has been waiting in line the longest. Huckabee didn't run last election since he was up against an incumbent.

I can see him going up against Clinton. Then they will slog it out over Benghazi and how Arkansas is barely a state. With Clinton winning in the end.

 

Edit: The unintended side effect of this is that Arkansas will lose its statehood. 



gergroy said:
BraveNewWorld said

I hope we see one of Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Donald Trump, or Gary Johnson as President.

How does Jeb bush appear in the same sentence as the rest of those people... Also Donald trump?  You want donald trump to be president?  The guy who's catch phrase is "you're fired"?


I have them all listed for different reasons. The only person I'll ever totally agree with is myself. Trump is a take-no-shit kinda guy and would make the debt a top priority. And if Ronald Reagen, an actor, can become President, then a reality TV star can.



"On my business card I am a corporate president. In my mind I am a game developer. But in my heart I am a gamer." - Satoru Iwata

BraveNewWorld said:
gergroy said:

How does Jeb bush appear in the same sentence as the rest of those people... Also Donald trump?  You want donald trump to be president?  The guy who's catch phrase is "you're fired"?


I have them all listed for different reasons. The only person I'll ever totally agree with is myself. Trump is a take-no-shit kinda guy and would make the debt a top priority. And if Ronald Reagen, an actor, can become President, then a reality TV star can.

It's not like reagan went from being an actor to president.  He was governor of California before that, trump has no government experience.  Having someone in charge of the debt who has filed for bankruptcy 4 times also doesn't seem wise, but whatever.  It isn't a scenario that will ever happen so there really is no point in arguing about it...



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I hope Hillary wins this time. Would be interesting to see a lady in charge for the first time.



    

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badgenome said:
Kerotan said:

Yeah great let's go for another bush type president who's mad for war and too proud to back down.  If bush was there instead of Obama god knows how many more nations would have been invaded.  

 

I didn't just say any woman,  I said hillary who is very smart and experience and married to an ex president who did a good job. I think she'll be a positive figure.  The fact she's a woman is an added bonus because woman need way more powerful representation around the world plus they are a lot more cool headed than most men.  

Haha, you really had me going until that last line.

But in case you're serious, Hillary never met a war she didn't like.

haha you caught me out! i'm irish so i've no vote lol. Doesn't bother me, once america's economy improves and they don't start too many wars. 



Shadow1980 said:

If Hillary runs, she wins. She already has a lock to win the Democratic nomination, plus she's relatively popular at the national level. Meanwhile, the GOP has had a post-Bush issue of being able to field candidates that are electorally viable at the national level. Winning a state-level or local election is different from winning an election where people in every state are voting. A Tea Party candidate for Congress can handily win in a rural district in a red state (or any district in any state that's been Gerrymandered in the GOP's favor), but that doesn't translate into the kind of national appeal a Presidential candidate needs.

In addition, the electoral map itself has been sliding in the Democrats' favor. States that were once swing states have been leaning increasingly Democratic (New Mexico went from solid red to solid blue), while former red states like Virginia and North Carolina have moved firmly to swing state status, and early polling data suggests even Georgia may be in play. Currently, the states typically classified as unambiguous swing states are Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Assuming those eight are toss-ups and the others are guaranteed to be either blue or red states, this gives us a map that looks like this:



If we add up the electoral votes for all states that are likely or guaranteed to go to Hillary, it amounts to 247, only 23 short of the 270 needed to win. Meanwhile, the GOP candidate will have 191 guaranteed EC votes (assuming early polling data for Georgia is just a case of early poll weirdness), 79 short of what they need. Hillary would already be in striking distance, while the GOP candidate has to make up a lot of lost ground. The GOP candidate absolutely must win Florida. If Hillary picks up Florida, she can lose every other swing state and still win. If she loses Florida but wins Ohio she'll be five short of what she needs, meaning she only needs to pick up only one of the following: Colorado, Iowa, NC, or Virginia. Even if she loses both Ohio and Florida, she could still win by picking up any combination of the six remaining swing states that would give her 23 EC votes, such as Virginia + NC, or Virginia + Nevada + Iowa.

For the sake of argument let's say that the GOP candidate wins NC and Colorado. That would bring them up to 215 votes, still 55 short of what they need. If they also win Florida in addition to NC and CO, that would give them 244, 26 short of what they need to win. If they pick up Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and NC, that still only gives them 262, which means they would also need to pick up either Virginia or a combination of NH & Nevada, NH & Iowa, or Iowa & Nevada.

Due to their built-in deficit in electoral votes, the GOP candidate has a lot of work to do. They must be palatable to people of all walks of life, not just white Tea Party conservatives. Unless Hillary does something that really hurts her reputation (hammering her on Benghazi won't work; that's beating a dead horse at this point), she's going to be a tough candidate to beat. There's very little they can run on.

Even in 2012 Obama quite soundly defeated Romney despite things being worse than they were today, and Romney was perhaps the most viable GOP candidate that ran that year. If he couldn't beat Obama, then Hillary should have minimal trouble beating whoever the GOP fields in 2016. Granted, a lot can change over the next 20 months, but so far Hillary seems to have an extremely high chance of becoming President.



the gop just have a chance with a moderate pro latino candidate. and no chance in hell they will elect such a person as candidate...

Kerotan said:
I hope hillary gets it. First black president followed by first female president would be great. Also think she would be way more peaceful than a another bush type president.

Why, she was one of the most vocal supporters of restricting the sales of violent video games and expressed her own warped views on video games.

As for her being peaceful she voted for the Iraq war and blamed the US not arming Syrian rebels for the rise of ISIS despite huge numbers of ISIS members being former rebels.

Also Im so tired of these race and gender arguments and could not care one whit for them beyond their politicals opinions.



This is the Game of Thrones

Where you either win

or you DIE

Eh. Who can raise the most money? That's who will get the nomination.