34m

microsoft has shown it will lose money to gain market share. it did just that this past holiday. 700k is nothing with an aggressive pricing scheme/promotion from microsoft. anyway, i tend to agree with your low-end predictions, but i think it will not sell more than 2014, and to be honest i think part of the reason will be the absolute lack of compelling, tent-pole exclusive software outside of uncharted 4.

but hey, we'll see. my predictions are here in this thread for the record. you dredge them up and rub them in my face if i'm wrong. i'm fairly sure i won't be tho.

You do know that Sony will also be competitive price and advertising-wise. Also, MS released the AC, COD, and SO bundles during the time of year where shopping is at its peak in America. If MS is willing to lose money to gain marketshare, why hasn't it made the pricecut official instead of temporary? 

Also, whether Uncharted 4 is the only "tent-pole" exclusive is merely your opinion. Some of the PS4's exclusives are big. Some are smaller. However, the collective effect will be significant regardless of whether you like those other exclusives or not.

you go ahead and name me the other major (2m+ sales potential) ps4 first- or second-party exclusive in 2015. because there isn't one. bloodborne won't do those numbers and you know it, and this is from a souls fan. sony's holiday exclusive in 2014 was littlebigplanet 3 for goodness's sake. their first-party operation has some serious shaping up to do (and people say nintendo has first-party development cycle problems). driveclub was an f'n disaster. 1886 was supposed to be a launch game. it's coming a year and a half later, if they don't delay it once more (and it looks like it's going to bomb big time, driveclub-style).

as for microsoft's promotions, they did two different promotions in 2014, first with the free game in september (during destiny week) and then throughout the holidays. january is a pretty low sales month across the board. it makes no sense to take a loss when volume isn't going to help make up for it... so they are, indeed, strategically creating a price advantage at high-volume sales periods. i see them continuing to do this (perhaps for evolve and/or witcher 3) before a permanent drop of $50 to $100 this holiday and if sony remains unwilling to match them, it will erode the ps4's lead. sony should be wary of their own arrogance.

you go ahead and name me the other major (2m+ sales potential) ps4 first- or second-party exclusive in 2015. because there isn't one. bloodborne won't do those numbers and you know it, and this is from a souls fan. sony's holiday exclusive in 2014 was littlebigplanet 3 for goodness's sake. their first-party operation has some serious shaping up to do (and people say nintendo has first-party development cycle problems). driveclub was an f'n disaster. 1886 was supposed to be a launch game. it's coming a year and a half later, if they don't delay it once more (and it looks like it's going to bomb big time, driveclub-style).

Driveclub is also digitally distributed and digital sales aren't counted in major trackers. I agree that its launch was horrible, but actually, it's doing decently LTD. Also, did you not see the latest UK charts? It ranked #7 in software sales. Not bad for a "f'n disaster". Whether Bloodborne and The Order: 1886 won't hit 2M+ is your opinion, to say the least. You don't really have evidence that strongly suggests that they can't reach that kind of milestone, merely opinions of other people's. As for Sony's 1st party operations, you'd rather have R@D release a broken product a la AC: Unity?

as for microsoft's promotions, they did two different promotions in 2014, first with the free game in september (during destiny week) and then throughout the holidays. january is a pretty low sales month across the board. it makes no sense to take a loss when volume isn't going to help make up for it... so they are, indeed, strategically creating a price advantage at high-volume sales periods. i see them continuing to do this (perhaps for evolve and/or witcher 3) before a permanent drop of $50 to $100 this holiday and if sony remains unwilling to match them, it will erode the ps4's lead. sony should be wary of their own arrogance.

While January's sales are obviously lower than November and December's, just why is the PS4 ranked #6 in the Amazon hourly rankings (and still at $399, too!)? The best consoles in history have always sold well consistently throughout the year, rather than just banking on the last two months. I can't imagine seeing the sales when the PS4's pricetag goes down to $299, but what's the point if the X1 lacks exclusives for the first half of the year and cannot outsell the PS4 even with two free games.

The Order will easily do +2M

Bloodborne might do it though it'll take time, probably not in 2015

Btw if you want to spread FUD you might want to be up to date instead of linking old stuff http://www.ign.com/videos/2014/12/06/the-order-1886-and-why-we-liked-the-new-demo-ign-conversation-psx-2014

PS4 selling more in 2015 than 2014 is a certainty, not a supposition.

dark souls 2 did ~2.5m on a combined install base (360+ps3) of ~165m. you, however, think bloodborne, without the name recognition of the souls series, will do 2m on an install base of 20-21m (by march)? yeah... i don't see that. especially since demon's souls, the last from software exclusive on a sony platform, did only 1.76, and that after years and years of discounts (it was a greatest hits). it did barely 500k worldwide its first year. don't be silly.

also, we'll see about your 'certainty.' i mean, time's just going to keep on going, eventually the year will be over and we'll have the figure. i think it'll be closer to mine (33-35m) than yours (whatever that may be).

dark souls 2 did ~2.5m on a combined install base (360+ps3) of ~165m. you, however, think bloodborne, without the name recognition of the souls series, will do 2m on an install base of 20-21m (by march)? yeah... i don't see that. especially since demon's souls, the last from software exclusive on a sony platform, did only 1.76, and that after years and years of steep discounts (it was a greatest hits). it did barely 500k worldwide its launch year. don't be silly.

also, we'll see about your 'certainty.' i mean, time's just going to keep on going, eventually the year will be over and we'll have the figure. i think it'll be closer to mine (33-35m) than yours (whatever that may be).