By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sony Discussion - Prediction: PS4 will sell 37,000,000 by Dec 31. 2015

biglittlesps on 10 January 2015
bonzobanana said:
Seems we are mostly all agreed the ps4 will have a fantastic year, approximately doubling its numbers. It will have a larger catalogue of games and no doubt a price reduction and there may be new developments coming in like a VR headset that may be officially announced if not launched this year. While I don't have a ps4 yet I'm building up a library on psn plus for one and expect to get one sometime this year.

I think its more interesting what will happen with wii u and xbone. Microsoft had a brilliant fight back to get back in the game but Nintendo seems to have given up on wii u. Those numbers are less easy to predict.

My prediction for 2015 year end is;

PS4 39m
Xbone 22m
Wii u 13m

Despite being a wii u owner myself I just can't see the wii u doing well this year. I'm only expecting to make 2-3 purchases for it myself and now with a complete lack of third party major titles I just don't see many buying it. It desperately needs a re-designed controller but not sure Nintendo will invest in it as the underlying console hardware is so weak and that won't restore third party support.

I think wii u will get even more marginalized this year with more retailers not stocking it. I think Nintendo have left it too late to fight back and will be forced into more aggressive pricing this year just to keep sales ticking over at low levels.

Microsoft will continue to offer exclusive titles in a console close to ps4 performance and do well in distant 2nd place but I feel as more aggressive pricing comes in European sales will recover.

22m for Xbox1? Are you sure about this? I can expect around 15-18m at max. They wont be able to sell more than 2-3m for the next 6 months as its barely nothing is there to attract, normally sales are slow and PS4 got big exclusives along with big 3rd party games marketing. You can only except another 5m only for the last 6 months.

EDIT: MS did not have fight back and they just made it cheaper and gave free games to increase user base when PS4 is weak with its games last holiday. It wont happen this year as sony prepared everything needed all year and MS is in weak place(at least for 6 months) this year.



GAMING is not about spending hours to pass/waste our time just for fun,

its a Feeling/Experience about a VIRTUAL WORLD we can never be in real, and realizing some of our dreams (also creating new ones).

So, Feel Emotions, Experience Adventure/Action, Challenge Game, Solve puzzles and Have fun.

PlayStation is about all-round "New experiences" using new IP's to provide great diversity for everyone.

Xbox is always about Online and Shooting.

Nintendo is always about Fun games and milking IP's.

Around the Network
bonzobanana on 10 January 2015
biglittlesps said:
bonzobanana said:
Seems we are mostly all agreed the ps4 will have a fantastic year, approximately doubling its numbers. It will have a larger catalogue of games and no doubt a price reduction and there may be new developments coming in like a VR headset that may be officially announced if not launched this year. While I don't have a ps4 yet I'm building up a library on psn plus for one and expect to get one sometime this year.

I think its more interesting what will happen with wii u and xbone. Microsoft had a brilliant fight back to get back in the game but Nintendo seems to have given up on wii u. Those numbers are less easy to predict.

My prediction for 2015 year end is;

PS4 39m
Xbone 22m
Wii u 13m

Despite being a wii u owner myself I just can't see the wii u doing well this year. I'm only expecting to make 2-3 purchases for it myself and now with a complete lack of third party major titles I just don't see many buying it. It desperately needs a re-designed controller but not sure Nintendo will invest in it as the underlying console hardware is so weak and that won't restore third party support.

I think wii u will get even more marginalized this year with more retailers not stocking it. I think Nintendo have left it too late to fight back and will be forced into more aggressive pricing this year just to keep sales ticking over at low levels.

Microsoft will continue to offer exclusive titles in a console close to ps4 performance and do well in distant 2nd place but I feel as more aggressive pricing comes in European sales will recover.

22m for Xbox1? Are you sure about this? I can expect around 15-18m at max. They wont be able to sell more than 2-3m for the next 6 months as its barely nothing is there to attract, normally sales are slow and PS4 got big exclusives along with big 3rd party games marketing. You can only except another 5m only for the last 6 months.

EDIT: MS did not have fight back and they just made it cheaper and gave free games to increase user base when PS4 is weak with its games last holiday. It wont happen this year as sony prepared everything needed all year and MS is in weak place(at least for 6 months) this year.


I'm definitely not sure about 22m as its a prediction but I do feel Microsoft has done a good job of getting some exclusives,  I feel MIcrosoft will be more likely to drop their prices before ps4 and they are expanding into new markets.  Let's not forget the ever increasing software library with some very good prices.  Like the ps4 more titles for the xbone will better exploit the power of the console this year.  Again though predictions like this are about predicting Microsoft's decisions. They could do something stupid and lose momentum. Also I feel there will be a recovery in Europe in Xbox sales. 



ethomaz on 11 January 2015
jetforcejiminy said:
your signature notwithstanding, the ps4 didn't even outperform the wii in its first full year (fell short by 2-2.5m)... this system is not headed for 100m. it's not even headed for 90m, probably closer to ps3 figures (~80-85m ltd) with a reverse trendline (ps3 peaked late, ps4 just peaked).

33-35m more realistic, and i'm inclined to go short rather than long on that prediction, especially with an aggressive serial bundler and discounter like microsoft as its main competitor.

I won't reply to your delusionals thinking but I will correct you where you put number from I don't know.

Wii shipped 20.17m in the first full year.
PS4 sold 18.5m in the first full year.

That can mean PS4 shipped 19.5m to 20m... just wait the financial results do know... it won't be 2-2.5m behind because it is IMPOSSIBLE even with the 18.5m SOLD.

BTW to be compared with the phenomenon Wii is a compliment... track at the same pace is something amazing for itself.



Riverstyx on 11 January 2015

I would predict the ps4 would get to 40m by the end of the year. Especially if they do something similar to what microsoft did this holiday. Also the ps4 will get that little extra boost from japanese publishers finally putting some games on the system.



 

jetforcejiminy on 12 January 2015
ethomaz said:
jetforcejiminy said:
your signature notwithstanding, the ps4 didn't even outperform the wii in its first full year (fell short by 2-2.5m)... this system is not headed for 100m. it's not even headed for 90m, probably closer to ps3 figures (~80-85m ltd) with a reverse trendline (ps3 peaked late, ps4 just peaked).

33-35m more realistic, and i'm inclined to go short rather than long on that prediction, especially with an aggressive serial bundler and discounter like microsoft as its main competitor.

I won't reply to your delusionals thinking but I will correct you where you put number from I don't know.

Wii shipped 20.17m in the first full year.
PS4 sold 18.5m in the first full year.

That can mean PS4 shipped 19.5m to 20m... just wait the financial results do know... it won't be 2-2.5m behind because it is IMPOSSIBLE even with the 18.5m SOLD.

BTW to be compared with the phenomenon Wii is a compliment... track at the same pace is something amazing for itself.

not clear what sony's ridiculous "sold through" nonsense actually means, so i'd keep your powder dry on that score, at least for the time being.

but since my thinking is delusional, why don't you enlighten me with your rational predictions? and what are they, ps4 150m? because someone in this thread predicted that the ps4 will sell more in 2015 than it has sold since its launch. by a lot. if i'm the delusional one, we'll have to find a new word for those people. and perhaps yourself, depending on what figure you give.



Around the Network
ethomaz on 12 January 2015

jetforcejiminy said:

not clear what sony's ridiculous "sold through" nonsense actually means, so i'd keep your powder dry on that score, at least for the time being.

but since my thinking is delusional, why don't you enlighten me with your rational predictions? and what are they, ps4 150m? because someone in this thread predicted that the ps4 will sell more in 2015 than it has sold since its launch. by a lot. if i'm the delusional one, we'll have to find a new word for those people. and perhaps yourself, depending on what figure you give.

More clear impossible.

Sold to consumers... you, me and others gamers lol

PS4 will sell more in 2015 than it sold in 2014... that is certain... so you can expect someting between 15 and 20 million for 2015... Sony will give you a Forecast next quarter.



jetforcejiminy on 12 January 2015
ethomaz said:

jetforcejiminy said:

not clear what sony's ridiculous "sold through" nonsense actually means, so i'd keep your powder dry on that score, at least for the time being.

but since my thinking is delusional, why don't you enlighten me with your rational predictions? and what are they, ps4 150m? because someone in this thread predicted that the ps4 will sell more in 2015 than it has sold since its launch. by a lot. if i'm the delusional one, we'll have to find a new word for those people. and perhaps yourself, depending on what figure you give.

More clear impossible.

Sold to consumers... you, me and others gamers lol

PS4 will sell more in 2015 than it sold in 2014... that is certain... so you can expect someting between 15 and 20 million for 2015... Sony will give you a Forecast next quarter.

we're in agreement about the low-end of your prediction. i think it's more like 15-17m, which is what led me to say 33-35m by the end of 2015. no way is it doing 20. i just don't see it when microsoft is quickly catching up (or trying to) in america and the wii u is beating the ps4 in japan. europe is its only hope, and europe has been in depression/recession (depending on the place) since 2007, with negative growth projected across the board in 2015.



ethomaz on 12 January 2015

jetforcejiminy said:

we're in agreement about the low-end of your prediction. i think it's more like 15-17m, which is what led me to say 33-35m by the end of 2015. no way is it doing 20. i just don't see it when microsoft is quickly catching up (or trying to) in america and the wii u is beating the ps4 in japan. europe is its only hope, and europe has been in depression/recession (depending on the place) since 2007, with negative growth projected across the board in 2015.

MS is not catching anywhere.

The gap is bigger at end of 2014 than end of 2013 in US... it will grow again from January to October and in November MS will take some but it won't catch what PS4 get from Jan to Oct.

It is clear... Sony sold more in US than MS in 2014.

I don't know where people come with this nonsense about Xbone catching... the gap growed to close to 8 million WW and about 700k in US.



Ezquimacore on 12 January 2015

34m



jetforcejiminy on 12 January 2015
ethomaz said:

jetforcejiminy said:

we're in agreement about the low-end of your prediction. i think it's more like 15-17m, which is what led me to say 33-35m by the end of 2015. no way is it doing 20. i just don't see it when microsoft is quickly catching up (or trying to) in america and the wii u is beating the ps4 in japan. europe is its only hope, and europe has been in depression/recession (depending on the place) since 2007, with negative growth projected across the board in 2015.

MS is not catching anywhere.

The gap is bigger at end of 2014 than end of 2013 in US... it will grow again from January to October and in November MS will take some but it won't catch what PS4 get from Jan to Oct.

It is clear... Sony sold more in US than MS in 2014.

I don't know where people come with this nonsense about Xbone catching... the gap growed to close to 8 million WW and about 700k in US.

microsoft has shown it will lose money to gain market share. it did just that this past holiday. 700k is nothing with an aggressive pricing scheme/promotion from microsoft. anyway, i tend to agree with your low-end predictions, but i think it will not sell more than 2014, and to be honest i think part of the reason will be the absolute lack of compelling, tent-pole exclusive software outside of uncharted 4.

but hey, we'll see. my predictions are here in this thread for the record. you dredge them up and rub them in my face if i'm wrong. i'm fairly sure i won't be tho.