How much do you think the PS4 will sell LTD by the end of 2015? I'm predicting it'll be in the range of 36-39M. 40M+ is a possibility, but that is if Sony is willing to be really aggresive.

China is an intriguing market and if it's as big as Japan, the PS4 can possibly sell close to 1M this year (assuming that the delay isn't that long).

Lol that was funny.

LTD will be somewhere around 39-42M by the end of 2015 IMO, that's with the games we know about and 41M if there's a reasonable price cut down to £299/$349 officially. If GT7, a few other AAA exclusives launch by the end of the year and Sony gets a bit more aggressive dropping the system down further to £279/$329 (likely IMO) then I think 45M isn't out of the question by the end of the year.

If Sony or Rockstar come out of left field, reannounces Agent as a fall 2015 full on for life exclusive for PS4, TLG gets the same and GT7 releases in Nov/December time the system wouldn't even need a dropping down to £279/$329 to sell 45M units by the end of this year, it'd do that at £299/$349 with the right marketing.

Good PS+ games will help, along with some more decent marketing, maybe the odd limited time PSN giveaways like how PVZ at PSX was handled, that would be great for the system's image.

To be clear I think coming close to what Japan has done in it's 1st year could be what China does sales wise in it's 11 months or so. I think Japan will be well on the rise this year, with all of the games that are more targeted to the area like Disgea, Bloodborne, MGSV, Dragon Quest, etc the drought will be a river with some pretty constant releases this year over there and even some 3rd party western games have started to sell better in Japan, the likes of The Witcher 3, maybe Arkham Knight, BF Hardline could do well. I can see 2-3M consoles selling over there this year.

I dare to predict 33.5-34.5M

reasonable, we should just keep this thread on ice until 12/31/15 to shame all these people predicting 45m or 50m in sales by then...

Define "people" because so far, I've only seen one person who predicted 45M...

using sony's murky 18.5m "sold through" ltd figure and vgchartz's own 14.3m figure for ps4 in 2014 alone....

a 50% increase yoy (you said "at least 50%" based on a bunch of shitty games and psp/ps2 ports) = 21.45m in 2015 alone. 21.45+18.50=39.95m.

a 66% increase yoy = 23.74m in 2015 alone. 23.74+18.50=42.24m.

a 70% increase yoy = 24.31 in 2015 alone. 24.31+18.50=42.81m.

you're cutting it pretty damn close. those figures? neva gonna happen. don't get exercised over this, you've made your predictions, now all that remains is to see how wide of the mark they really are. 33-35m. again, want to bet?

Moderated,

-Mr Khan

You did not really answer my question. Define "people"...

EDIT: Also, I did not claim a 50% increase. If the PS4 sells 36M, then it will have sold 17.5M in 2015. That is a 20% increase YOY (or 1.2x, decimal-wise). My upper limit, 39M, assumes that the PS4 will have sold 20.5M in 2015. That is about a 40% increase YOY (or 1.4x). You really need to look before you leap because you're metaphorically punching yourself in the face, right now.

you predicted 43m (70% increase). people includes you as far as i'm concerned. when you're 7m higher than what will actually happen next year, what does it matter how much farther upwards you go? 15m, 10m, 7m? they're equally absurd, easily two quarters worth of sales.

finally, that bet?

Who said 50M?

I know I said 45M was possible, but there are a pretty decent number of factors that all need to come into play for that to happen, GT7 release, good/great price cut, more AAA exclusives that have weight and haven't been announced yet, great bundles too.

From where I'm standing expecting virtually no growth in sales is unreasonable, because it never happens on platforms like PS4. Even 360 with all of the negative RROD PR, a weaker line-up compared to the previous in terms of volume of quality titles still managed like 33% growth. Even if you low ball the estimates for PS4 at 360 levels (which is highly unlikely given the factors mentioned in my previous replies like the greater weight of games and such) that puts PS4 in line with doing liek 37M by the end of the year.

Expecting similar sales to last year just doesn't make sense when you compare the games line-up this year to the last one, even without any kind of permanent price reduction and just having the games that have been confirmed releasing. When you add in other likely factors, maybe certain games that people think are digital only (like Rime, WiLD, possibly others) maybe getting retail releases, localization of Japanese games to the West, games like Drawn to Death getting released too. Like I say newly announced AAA exclusives launching in a similar fashion to how LBP3 was done, only with a game like that being purely a PS4 exclusive, that all adds to the impact on sales,.

A price cut along with all the games incoming will just be like throwing fuel on a fire.