After popular demand, I present you my 2015 prediction. My 2014 where I predicted 20M http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=176130
Sony sold 18.5M LTD by the end of 2014, and they should have at least shipped 20M. Which means it shipped ~15.5M units in 2014 alone. So I'm roughly predicting it will sell-in 17M units this year, and I'm justifying that by a few factors:
-In 2015 PS4 will have better exclusives and real system sellers like Uncharted 4 coming out
-2015 will be a better year overall for more, better and bigger games like MGS5 coming out which will be a system seller on PS4. PS4 is becoming the default console for multiplat games.
-Japanese sales will be better with better support this year but it will not mean much in the grand scheme of things
-PS4(and Vita) are launching in China and likely in more more markets
-PRICECUT TO 299 USD/EUR, the Xbone will also get a price cut to this level, could even be a bit more like 279. But it's PS4 that will benefit the most. Remember the revival of PS3 when it reached 299, it sold 2M more YoY in the holidays, PS4 will propagate that much more.
Q1 ~2.5M (~22 million by March 31)
Q2 ~2M (~24M by June 30)
Q3 ~4M (~28M by Sept 30)
Q4 ~9M (~37M by Dec 31)
Feel free to bump from time to time if it's on track or not and if I'm getting it wrong big time.