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Prediction: PS4 will sell 37,000,000 by Dec 31. 2015

Forums - Sony Discussion - Prediction: PS4 will sell 37,000,000 by Dec 31. 2015

After popular demand, I present you my 2015 prediction. My 2014 where I predicted 20M http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=176130 

Sony sold 18.5M LTD by the end of 2014, and they should have at least shipped 20M. Which means it shipped ~15.5M units in 2014 alone. So I'm roughly predicting it will sell-in 17M units this year, and I'm justifying that by a few factors:

-In 2015 PS4 will have better exclusives and real system sellers like Uncharted 4 coming out

-2015 will be a better year overall for more, better and bigger games like MGS5 coming out which will be a system seller on PS4. PS4 is becoming the default console for multiplat games.

-Japanese sales will be better with better support this year but it will not mean much in the grand scheme of things

-PS4(and Vita) are launching in China and likely in more more markets

-PRICECUT TO 299 USD/EUR, the Xbone will also get a price cut to this level, could even be a bit more like 279. But it's PS4 that will benefit the most. Remember the revival of PS3 when it reached 299, it sold 2M more YoY in the holidays, PS4 will propagate that much more.

 

Q1 ~2.5M (~22 million  by March 31)

Q2 ~2M (~24M by June 30)

Q3 ~4M (~28M by Sept 30)

Q4 ~9M (~37M by Dec 31)

=37,000,000 sold-in.

Feel free to bump from time to time if it's on track or not and if I'm getting it wrong big time.



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Bump

You are getting it wrong big time...



I don't think % increase with PS4 is going to be that big this year. I think about 35 million is possible at a stretch



But...but... that's what I predicted



It definitely won't get a price but, but I can see it getting 36m by the end of 2016 without one, so 37m doesn't seem like much of a stretch. Don't think China will help either. All in all, though, I agree with your prediction.



Well, this is new.

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37m is possible since the ps4 will probably sell a few millions this year in Japan with all the Japanese games coming out... FF Type-0, Bloodborne, Persona 5, Disgaea 5, FF X/X-2 and maybe FF XV and KH3... The only Japanese game that came out in 2014 was Knack.



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    I agree on around 37 mill but math is wrong. It 18.5 million at years end and you have 2.5 mill by end of March thats 21 million not 22 million.
    Also I really don't see a offical $299 PS4 price cut, mabye unofficial in December mabye BF. They don't need too, there still dominate. I do see the XB1 go back to $349, mabye maybe a offical price cut to $379 for PS4 but not till October or November Area.
    They would never officially price drop $100. Xbox temp $50 price cut and they were hurting really bad and as a whole company they can afford it and Sony will lose a lot of money on there almost only profitable enterprise when there massively dominating.



    36 million is exactly what I predicted so I definitely think that your prediction is possible.



    PS4 is going to sell 14 to 15 million consoles this year. I'd say LTD sales by december 31st 2015 will be about 33 million.



    I think it will move about the same amount it did this year, As it was selling at a very high pace during the early months of last year, I do not think it will do the same this year. However if will gain those sales back with a price cut. Making it sell about the same amount of units as this year.

    I also don't see it moving that amount of units during the summer months.