Will we see a 30 million seller on a single console this gen?

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will we see a 30 million seller on a single console this gen?

What game on which system?

GTA VI on PS4 112 32.84%
GTA VI on Xbox One 1 0.29%
New IP on PS4 19 5.57%
New IP on Xbox One 5 1.47%
Mario game on Wii U (10 million) 36 10.56%
Other (post what you think it will be) 11 3.23%
Not going to happen 157 46.04%

I doubt it, but if it does the install base will need to be at least 60mill.

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On a single console? Nope. Not unless GTA 6 is exclusive or something improbable like that.

Well, this is new.


DanneSandin said:
It's probably not gonna happen, the only chance is GTA VI on PS4 or if Nintendo went 3rd party

No game Nintendo makes would approach anything near 30m on another console.

Well, this is new.


Only possible way for this to happen would be bundling Knack in all consoles sold. Maybe Knack 2.

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I doubt it. Only bundled successful title might manage it. For example if Sony sold GT7 with every PS4 for 2016 on.

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I don't think there will.


Microsoft only got close the once with Kinect Adventures on Xbox 360 with 24 million copies sold. I don't see a a Kinect game doing that again mainly because nobody really cares about the latest Kinect model, specially now Microsoft has made bundles without Kinect and now the Xbox 360 gets a 10% GPU increase without it.


Sony hasn't even managed to pass 20 million with an exclusive, even on PS2 so I doubt that. PS Vita is the least likely. I don't think the Vita has had any million seller titles yet or at least they haven't updated on their sales like they haven't with the sales on the handheld. NPD hasn't spoken about anything Vita for 1-2 years now.


Nintendo has had exclusives pass 30 million before, but sadly with how the Wii U is doing, they will struggle to make their exclusives pass 10 million. The only change we have is the Nintendo 3DS, but then even the DS only had one exclusive manage that so that isn't promising.



One a single console? o.O -> We will never see that again... :(

GTA Something (not necessarily the next one) on PS4 would be the best option, but only if PS4 becomes really dominant (Xbox looks to have came back a bit at the end of this year and if they can remain strong in US that will make a difference, since a game will need the US to get near 30 million). Or if it somehow got GTA or COD exclusive, or perhaps some sort of Rockstar new IP GTA clone / spiritual successor as an exclusive. If Xbox One stays even kind of close to PS4 in the hardware race it will be hard though, since I expect even a big GTA or similar game would end up with ~40 million to split between them.

As for 10 million on the Wii U, I don't think it will happen but there's maybea slightly better chance than 30 million on PS4 or Xbox One. NSMBU is currently the top seller but I expect Mario Kart 8 to pass that next year and be the best selling Wii U game overall barring any huge surprises (on a tangent, my prediction is 1. Mario Kart 8, 2. NSMBU, 3. Super Smash Bros U, 4/5. Zelda U / Nintendoland (or else a surprise game not on our radar right now)). So the question is really will Mario Kart 8 sell 10 million. It looks like it could be close to 4 million by the end of this year, it would need incredible legs to sell another 6 million. Mario Kart Wii had those kind of legs (released at a similar time of year as Mario Kart 8, was ~13m at the end of 2008 but ended well above 30m) but that was a much bigger game so I don't know if the ratios will be comparable. Mario Kart 7 ended its first year with similar sales to Mario Kart 8 and reached 10m this year, but it was released in the holidays, and also on a much bigger install base. The obvious comparison might be the Gamecube but I don't know where to look to see how much Double Dash sold lifetime compared to its first year. But anyway, I imagine the Wii U's software sales will look similar to the Gamecube's in the end except with Mario Kart on top and Super Smash Bros below, and the Gamecube sold 21 million but Melee only 7 million, so it doesn't look too likely.

spemanig said:
DanneSandin said:
It's probably not gonna happen, the only chance is GTA VI on PS4 or if Nintendo went 3rd party

No game Nintendo makes would approach anything near 30m on another console.

I would love to hear your reasoning for this; I dont disagree with you,  mind you, but it would be interesting to hear nonetheless. Id argue that the ps/xbox gamers dont really care about those kind of games, but Ive heard counter arguments to that

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