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Forums - Sales Discussion - OK, I faced it: WiiU can't sell over 15M

 

15M, too low or just ok?

With my heartbroken, I agree. 291 32.96%
 
A pricecut can still push it to 20M-25M. 426 48.24%
 
Nonsense. WiiU is an assu... 165 18.69%
 
Total:882
qwertyDANIELqwerty on 29 December 2014

Does that mean I can say the PS4 will not sell 20 million?



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wangjingwanjia on 29 December 2014
zorg1000 said:
wangjingwanjia said:
zorg1000 said:
wangjingwanjia said:
I absolutely think that the Wii U will pass 15 lifetime, no doubt in my mind. But to make a guess for an actual lifetime sale I can not, it's really difficult to know how much it will sell in the end.

I usually say 30-40m, but to say 20-30m would be much more safe.

The GC and N64 that didn't sell all too well still made 4-6m lifetime in Japan so my bet is that the Wii U will do the same. It is already at 2m with a 1m/year average, similar to the two other systems.

When it comes to NA it would need to continue selling around its current numbers to reach 10-14, similar to the GC.

For EU the GC and N64 made 4-6 like in Japan, extremely low numbers actually. And just looking at the Wii U's numbers it seems to do worse than the other two, but not too worse, so it could make the same numbers.

For RoW I would think 1-2m would seem possible.

Add those numbers up and I will get 19-27m consoles WW lifetime sales.

Still I'm hoping for pricecuts and some wind in the sails for Nintendo. If things goes better in the coming years it could reach 40m, which for me would be a victory in itself, given the poor situation it has now. But yes, this is wishful thinking.

So can it make 15? Yes it will. Make 20? I do think so, yes. Make 30? Perhaps, it's not impossible but also not probable. Make 40? Seems impossible at the moment, something must really change for it to happen.

Does anyone have any numbers for how well(poorly) the GC, N64, Saturn and DC actually did in their 3 first years on the market? It would be really interesting to see. :)

Ur actually wrong on a few things here. Wii U is tracking behind GC by a pretty large margin in every territory.

In terms of shipments, Wii U was at 7.29 million at the end of Sept, in the same time frame GC was at 10.45 million. Wii U is down over 3 million and the gap is getting larger. GC shipped a further 3.5 million for a total of 13.95 million at the end of its 2nd full year.

Wii U shipped 1.95 million last holiday and this year's sales are pretty similar so we should expect similar shipments, let's just say 2.2 million. That would put Wii U around 9.5 million compared to about 14 million for GC. Down 35% compared to GC thru 2nd full year, if it continues to be down by 35% then Wii U will only sell about 14-15 million.

Also N64 was at 23 million by Mar 1999 (2.5 years on market) so Wii U is tracking less than half as well as N64 which again would put Wii U less than 15 million lifetime.

If the numbers you have are indeed right then I can understand why people think that the Wii U might not even make it to the 15 millions mark.

When I did my brief calculation I simply looked at what N64/GC had sold lifetime and compared it to what Wii U had sold now, and used those numbers as the base, so I used a 4m/year average. Of course the sales goes up and down, especially in the beginning where as they rise and then decline at the end, so 4m in their second year is nothing to cheer about at all.  

Where did you find your numbers anyway? I would love to dig into some old numbers too, especially for the GC since Wii U seems to be heading down the same old road.


vgsales.wikia.com

Thanks!

I see that the GC sold around 5 millions in NA by the end of year two, compared to Wii U that according to VGC will be somewhere around 3.5-4 millions.

They seemed to have had about the same start, both hitting around the same numbers. But then the Wii U really fell behind. Seems to be around 2 millions behind after the first year and then another 3 millions after the second. Japan sales seems to be about equal however, but NA and EU are the big losses.





黑色沙漠 - Black Desert - 검은사막

 

Metallox on 29 December 2014

Seece said:
2012: 2.3m
2013: 3m (5.3m)
2014: 3.6m (8.9m)
2015: 3.1m (12m)
2016: 2m (14m)
2017 & beyond: 1.5m (15.5m)

Think it will just surpass 15m.

Fact of the matter if everyone and their grandma thought WiiU would do amazing this year/holiday with Smash and MK, and it's barely been on par for most of it. A price cut is not going to be more impactful. Price is NOT the problem with the WiiU.

All the games in 2015 bar Zelda are niche, and even that is small compared to MK and Smash.

2016 will see WiiU rapidly fall off like all past Nintendo home consoles have done, there is nothing to suggest it will have a leggy lifespan.

A 3D Mario title, Metroid and more sequels to already existing games on Wii U, such as Pikmin 3, a price cut and new approaches from Nintendo for the console in 2016 could help to push sales to another 3 million units. Also, many people that haven't even considered the console as a choice could grab by this point. 

 

That being said, I don't think the console will sell less than 3 million units in 2016. It wil definitely start to die out in 2017, and very hard, it's my assumption. A new platform could be announced and support from Nintendo could die by then as well. 

 

So I think annual numbers will go like this:

-2015: 2.7 million

-2016: 3.4 million

-2017: 1.6 million 

 

Overall, I think the console will barely surpass the 15 million units, unless Nintendo lauches something as incredible as Goldeneye, Metroid Prime and Wii Sports successes were. It has already one thing, Splatoon, but the company would need to be very smart, so I doubt this game will do anything. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

Gammalad on 29 December 2014

30M by its discontinue date.



"I think it will be the HDS"-Me in regards to Nintendo's next handheld.

KyleeStrutt on 29 December 2014
qwertyDANIELqwerty said:
Does that mean I can say the PS4 will not sell 20 million?

You can say it if you want, it just won't be true.



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TheSting on 30 December 2014

Count me as buying one next year. The perfect compliment to my Xbox One



AshKetchum1992 on 30 December 2014

Some time ago my prediction was that it still could outsell the Gamecube but now I'd say it'll do between 15m and 18 m



zumnupy10 on 30 December 2014
captain carot said:
zumnupy10 said:
Nintendo must definetely be thinking about the possibility of a new console in 2016.


Why should they? Showing up first isn't necessarily bad. But to early is pretty much like to late. No, try to get as much money out of Wii U as possible, roll out a new handheld in late 2016 and do the next home console right.


If sales are this low now.  Can you imagine how they will look to investors by then ?



captain carot on 30 December 2014

Investors are not only up to sales but also making money or not. And if Nintendo is making money again, low sales will likely be better than high sales without making money.
Think about MS, where investors still want them to get rid of Xbox. Or Sony two, three years ago. Some of the major investors wanted them to seperate media and finance/insurance services. Playstation was one of the things they didn't want to keep.

We will see a handheld first. Something, we wont see ever gain from Sony. That handheld should actually be out late 2016, at least in Japan.

And don't forget, investors faces often look like that: $_$

If we go for big investor oppinions, then Nintendo should quit making consoles and hendhelds yesterday and make smartphone games.