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Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

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I think my WiiU prediction was 60m? Can't remember. Don't think I predicted anything at the beginning of the gen for PS4 and XBO.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

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3DS - 60-65M: Similar to GBA in Japan, much weaker than GBA in the west

Wii U: 9-13m: Similar to GC in Japan, much weaker than GC in the west

PS4: 85-95m: Similar lifetime figures (but flipped EU & NA) but much weaker in Japan than PS3 + X360 (80-85m west...+Japan)

X1: 50-60m: Between X1 and X360 in West, very weak in Japan

Vita: Weak Everywhere. Won't top 15m

 

3DS is past peak, X1 and PS4 peak next year - they're much cheaper than X360 / PS3 were adjusted for inflation, and core gamers into graphics will bleed back to the PC faster this round since the machines weren't overengineered like crazy. My numbrs are actually high too, if you reckon that Kinect / Move added 18 months or so of life to X360 / PS3 late, and that won't happen this time.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

3DS - 60-65M: Similar to GBA in Japan, much weaker than GBA in the west

Wii U: 9-13m: Similar to GC in Japan, much weaker than GC in the west

PS4: 85-95m: Similar lifetime figures (but flipped EU & NA) but much weaker in Japan than PS3 + X360 (80-85m west...+Japan)

X1: 50-60m: Between X1 and X360 in West, very weak in Japan

Vita: Weak Everywhere. Won't top 15m

 

3DS is past peak, X1 and PS4 peak next year - they're much cheaper than X360 / PS3 were adjusted for inflation, and core gamers into graphics will bleed back to the PC faster this round since the machines weren't overengineered like crazy. My numbrs are actually high too, if you reckon that Kinect / Move added 18 months or so of life to X360 / PS3 late, and that won't happen this time.

You think Wii U will only sell 1-5m units more in it's lft?



Predictions: PS4: 110m, XB1: 65m, Wii U: 15m, 3DS: 70m, PSV: 15m

Curl - 6 was right about Zelda U never being a wii u exclusive, I should have never bet against him :p  

why do all of you have the Wii U at over 20m ?!? O.o It barely hits 10m and this was it's peak year.



Intrinsic said:
kirby007 said:

m

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

 

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

WII U

NINTENDO TAB

Total NEW hardware sales

2012

0

0

2.200.000

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

0

8.600.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

0

26.900.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

0

33.000.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

0

31.500.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

2.000.000

12.000.000

40.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

0

18.000.000

41.500.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

0

19.000.000

42.500.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

0

19.500.000

38.500.000

           

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

23.700.000

68.500.000

 

Dunno if serious.....

Can you tell that your predictions are already grossly off? There is so much wrong with it that i don't even know where to begin. Its like a prediction someone will make if living under a rock or in a bubble of some sort void of any kinda statistical or historical analysis whatsoever. You have to be joking right?

it is off, but that is the beauty of a prediction made before this generation isn't it?



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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Intrinsic said:

First, your windows argument is a bad one. Simply because the thing about windows is that no one really has a choice. Everyone buying a laptop in the past 2 years automatically is buying into windows 8. Anyone trying to buy a new OS for their PC is automatically buying into windows 8. There isn't a single other OS that is directly competing with windows. You can't just walk into a store and buy a OSX and install it on your laptop at home without some serious tech savvy.

Now back to the wiiU. I feel for nintendo and al, but lets call a spade a spade. The wiiU was DOA and is still dead and will when compared to everything else in its market, will remain dead. Thats not saying that it may not hit 20M in lifetime sales, or maybe a little more. The way I see it; its the cheapest console on the market, and not just selling the worst, but has been grossly outpaced by the other two consoles on the market within their first years of being on the market while costing significantly more. Its a sad place to be for nintendo or its fans if they are somehow looking to a price drop making the cheapest console already cheaper just to get maybe 4M sales in a single year. 

Eh, Chromebooks? Linux? Macs? If you do a little research you can install mac to a PC with no knowledge at all. I have 2 chromebooks and 4 PCs running Ubuntu/Fedora. I know I am the miniority but these markets are growin not shrinking



tak13 said:
Seece said:
ExplodingBlock said:
SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft

It won't tho, it's so far behind Gamecube and looking at how the Gamecube did over the next year alligned it's not gonna close that gap, rather increase it.

That's categorical...!What gamecube did?I know what it did...After selling fast 13m units(60% of lt sales)in its first two years because of the two big consecutive price cuts(-50$ -50$),it sold 4m in the third year,facing a huge decline!Can you say that this isn't insuperable?

Who can be sure with similar price cuts that wii u won't destroy gc's 3rd and 4th year?I know,you!

I m still wondering why what you are saying everytime oozes an inconceivalbe certainty,dear seece!:P

WiiU won't do 4m in 2015, and it'll decline beyond that. At best it'll start matching Gamecube, not surpassing it enough to make up a 5m deficit.

And that's because I am certain, if anything since WiiU debuted I've only ever overpredicted what it'll do, hardly ever under.





 

ExplodingBlock said:
SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft


no i said it would be lucky to sell much more than have of that. meaning lucky to get more than 15-16 million.

my prediction is slightly less than 15 million lifetime.

it will sell about 3 million in 2015



 

I was hoping 40 million units for Wii U, but then... puff, the possibility exploded in the beginning of 2013.

I also never expected the incredible performance of PS4.