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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

kirby007 said:

m

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

 

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

WII U

NINTENDO TAB

Total NEW hardware sales

2012

0

0

2.200.000

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

0

8.600.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

0

26.900.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

0

33.000.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

0

31.500.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

2.000.000

12.000.000

40.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

0

18.000.000

41.500.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

0

19.000.000

42.500.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

0

19.500.000

38.500.000

           

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

23.700.000

68.500.000

 

Dunno if serious.....

Can you tell that your predictions are already grossly off? There is so much wrong with it that i don't even know where to begin. Its like a prediction someone will make if living under a rock or in a bubble of some sort void of any kinda statistical or historical analysis whatsoever. You have to be joking right?



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I had something like this, though I'm not that sure about XBox One and I'm not going to search back two years worth of posts of mine ;

WiiU: 64m
PS4: 90m
XBox One: 50m

3DS: 118.69m (I said it would tie the GameBoy)
Vita: 20m

Now I'd say I would revise WiiU and 3DS substantially, and PS4 and Vita mildly.

WiiU: 20m
PS4: 100m
XBox One: 50m

3DS: 80m
Vita: 15m

I don't think PS4 will get that far past PS3, because the effective life of gen will be much shorter than last and it will be quite front-loaded. Plus, like it or not, mobile gaming is having an impact. Not everyone on PS360 was a 'core' gamer. As PS3 never got the legs of PS2, PS4 won't get the legs of PS3. Vita's sales are so slow it isn't even having a holiday uptick and it won't get to double the sales it has now. 3DS with maybe three more decent years could get within a distance of the PSP and the GBA, which would be good enough considering. WiiU could get near GameCube, which is still bad of course. Right now it looks worse, but people often forget GameCube's latter years were atrocious. If WiiU remains consistent enough and gets a full life I don;t see why it couldn't get to 20m.



DarkRPGamer007 said:

The end of the year is almost here, and with that wraps up the first year of full next gen. Let's just start out by saying, my predictions have completely changed from the beginning of this gen until this point. I honestly didn't see any of this coming from any console or handheld (other than Vita failing and PS4 succeeding) but please tell me your predicitons!

Pre-launch predictions

3DS- 130m

PSV- 50m

Wii U- 80m

PS4- 80m

XB1- 65m

 

Current predictions

3DS- 85m

PSV- 12m

Wii U- 27m

PS4- 92m

XB1- 46-48m

 

Also, PS4 may have seemed low at first, but look at my predictions from the end of 2011 for the last gen consoles

Wii- 110m

XB360- 80m

PS3- 75m

 

So you probably see why the PS4 was a bit lower. Also, I didn't expect Wii U to have this terrible blow, I thought it would sell much, much more. XB1 honestly was on the fence, but I thought it would sell less.

 

Yeah XBOX One's predictions are a bit rough as of now but as you see, they've chagned. So how about your guys predictions? Have they been any different?

 

My original prediction never changed save for slight adjustments up and down, due to price cuts etc. Your predictions for XB1 and PS4 are now closing in mine. With more time, you'll get there.

by the end of 2014,

PS4 : 13.7 - 17 million

XB1 : 6.3 - 9.8 million

original:http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=182332&page=1

adjusted  : http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187926&page=1

the only deviation is XB1 selling slightly more than estimated due to agressive price cuts and free games (which is not accounted for in the estimation). Otherwise the estimates are nearly perfect.

by the end of 2020

XB1 sales estimate : 47.5 to 73.3 million
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178350&page=1

PS4 sales estimate : 132.3 to 168.9 million
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178353&page=1

These estimates will be updated in January after the dust in 2014 settles, depending on the sales rates, and relative market share. It's likely that the (confidence) intervals will get smaller and expected XB1 sales will improve to something like (55-75 million).
 



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

my predicitions:

WII U: 20 million and nintendo can say thank you..
PS4: 110 million
ONE: 60 million and can say thank you.

new console from nintendo 2017 and wii u will be dead at the end of 2015.
new console from microsoft on 2018.



SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft



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ExplodingBlock said:
SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft

It won't tho, it's so far behind Gamecube and looking at how the Gamecube did over the next year alligned it's not gonna close that gap, rather increase it.



 

ExplodingBlock said:
SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft


It won't. Unless a major price cut happens early next year, this is the Wii U's peak year, and you would have to assume the Wii U maintains this years sales for the next 3 years to even hit 20 million.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Seece said:
ExplodingBlock said:
SocialistSlayer said:
you cant honestly believe wiiu will still sell 27 million, it will be lucky to get much over half that.

It will be lucky to sell over 13.5m? 

It can sell 21m lft

It won't tho, it's so far behind Gamecube and looking at how the Gamecube did over the next year alligned it's not gonna close that gap, rather increase it.

That's categorical...!What gamecube did?I know what it did...After selling fast 13m units(60% of lt sales)in its first two years because of the two big consecutive price cuts(-50$ -50$),it sold 4m in the third year,facing a huge decline!Can you say that this isn't insuperable?

Who can be sure with similar price cuts that wii u won't destroy gc's 3rd and 4th year?I know,you!

I m still wondering why what you are saying everytime oozes an inconceivalbe certainty,dear seece!:P



Why are some people writing 3DS over 80 million, Delusional.
On vgchartz front page its 47.9 million sold and this year its 7.5 million, OK the years not finished but it won't sell 10 million we can all agree, its hugely down year on year and is only going to get worse in 2015 and 2016
and it will probably get replaced in 2017 so how on earth can it sell another 35 million?



I think my WiiU prediction was 60m? Can't remember. Don't think I predicted anything at the beginning of the gen for PS4 and XBO.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!