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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Beginning of gen predictions vs. predictions now

Wii U wont cross 18 million. PS4 will certainly pass 100 million. Xbox One numbers are unpredictable but it will pass 50 million.



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I don't get why some people still predict PS4 sub-100M. Why would the clear leader of the gen end up almost tied with the troubled PS3? And people are predicting a massive market contraction. Some predictions won't sum up even the 160M current base of PS360.

There isn't any evidence of a shrinking market, what's the alternative to consoles? People aren't going for PCs, since we still have a lot of console exclusives and gaming on PC demands way more knowledge and money than the average Joe can get. People aren't going to mobile, since 16 or 32 players online shooters are the main genre and you won't get that on your iPad. Any prediction that doesn't sum up at least a good 220 or 240M is crazy.

PS4: 130M
X1: 70M
Wii U: 25M



vkaraujo said:

Here is my problem with your prediction.

You are aiming for 180M to PS4+X1. PS3+X360 only managed to reach almost 170M until now and they had a big life span. We also have to consider japan that had 10M PS3, something i am not sure PS4 can make, and almost 1.7M X360, which i am 100% sure the XONE won't make.

We also have to consider how powerfull those consoles were compared to PC, and how this will affect this gen. 

What i want to say is that i don't expect big growth over those 170M, if any.

I wil just start by saying that PS2 alone managed over 150M in as many years as the 360 has been on the market. But let me go on and address your issues.

  1. 180M PS4X1, 170M PS360... it doesn't really matter. What you should look at is the fact that unlike last gen when all 3 players did very well, this gen only one of them is going to do really well, the second will do great and the third will be a failure. So that just means that there will be a larger sales bias this gen than last gen, last gen we had a 100/80/80 split. The person that did the 100 last gen is not going to manage 30M this gen. One of the people that did 80 last gen will not push past 60M this gen, all those supposed extra sales have to go somewhere. Also consider that last gen the most expensive console was $600. The fact that the consoles will get cheaper faster this gen pretty much ensures a more rapid adoption rate.

  2. I stll believe that sony will sell up to 10M PS4s in japan this gen, but even if they don't the ROW market which now includes china is growing bigger and bigger with every passing gen. 

  3. How powerful those consoles were compared to PCs is completely irrelevant. Like I couldn't stress it enough just how irrelevant the power argument is if comparing consoles to PCs and using that as some sort of marker for how sales will trend. ESPECIALLY with the current gen of consoles. Look at it this way, how much different are cross platform games bewteen current gen and last gen right now? Then ask yourself this, do you think in another 6-7yrs games running on PCs will look soooooooooooo much better that it would demand new consoles to be able to keep up?

  4. I don't expect a big growth either. Like I have said already. Thats why I pointed out that last gen we had a total of ~260M across 3 consoles. This gen it will be under 200M.  Difference here is just that one player is doing really well, one is doing ok and one is doing extremely poorly. 


Wii U
2012: 2,247,216
2013: 3,113,285
2014: 3.7m
2015: 6.2m
2016: 5.5m
2017: 3.5
2018: 1.5m
2019: 1m
26.8m I just rounded up to 27m for Wii U predictions. But with a new game almost every month in 2015, there won't be droughts, and most importantly, they'll have an excuse to advertise. Maybe people will finally see the difference between Wii and Wii U and I guarantee that will bring in a few. Pokken Fighters, Shin Megami Tensei, and I say save Star Fox U for 2016 plus maybe Animal Crossing, a GC HD remake, and Paper Mario U along with a price cut and other games like The Wonderful 102 and Metroid to $199 should keep the system chugging. Finish up the lifecycle in 2017 with Bayonetta 3, some other games, and have another price cut toward the holiday reducing the console to $149. Finally in 2018 sell it for $149, then 2019 cut it to just $99 with a few games. Also, if Nintendo doesn't include backwards compatability on their next console, but releases a few desired games late 2017, it should still have an OK holiday then. It seems optimistic but I don't see why this couldn't happen.



XBOX ONE/Wii U/3DS/PC

RIP Iwata 12/6/1959-7/11/2015

Thanks for all the great memories!

WiiU 27million? lol that says enough about your prediction. It's a little better if you'd switch the Vita and WiiU one.



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bubblegamer said:
WiiU 27million? lol that says enough about your prediction. It's a little better if you'd switch the Vita and WiiU one.


Nice attitude,well done...!How?wii u destroys ps vita in the west...



tak13 said:
bubblegamer said:
WiiU 27million? lol that says enough about your prediction. It's a little better if you'd switch the Vita and WiiU one.


Nice attitude,well done...!How?wii u destroys ps vita in the west...

What attitude? Are you feeling attacked or something like that? Vita is more likely to sell 27 Million than WiiU is.



tak13 said:
Seece said:

27m for WiiU? How on earth does anyone reach that sort of prediction. Look at what it's doing. Look at what it's done over 25/26 months including 3 holiday seasons, not even 10m.

In fact you expect it to sell the same as it has been up to early 2019 to reach 27m.


Stiil wii u hasn't get a price cut,it's being the most expensive nintedo system ever,do not dooming so hard these predictions!13m gamecube sold in two years, its first two years,that's the 60% of its total sales.

This happened thanks to the two consecutive price cuts of -50$ & -50$ respectively,which is logically the reason that wii u is currently being dominated by gc!

The repeatitive comparison of gc and wii u will be more interesting now that we are going on the third year,because gc sold really fast in its first two years due to the brave price cuts and then fell dramatically,wii u will possibly get it first real price cut in 2015!

27m for WiiU? How on earth does anyone reach that sort of prediction. Look at what it's doing. Look at what it's done over 25/26 months including 3 holiday seasons, not even 10m.

In fact you expect it to sell the same as it has been up to early 2019 to reach 27m.



 

m

 

 

Gen Prediction Time

 

 

 

-

Xbox One

Playstation 4

WII U

NINTENDO TAB

Total NEW hardware sales

2012

0

0

2.200.000

0

2.200.000

2013

2.100.000

3.500.000

3.000.000

0

8.600.000

2014

7.900.000

13.000.000

6.000.000

0

26.900.000

2015

14.000.000

13.500.000

5.500.000

0

33.000.000

2016

13.500.000

13.000.000

5.000.000

0

31.500.000

2017

12.500.000

13.500.000

2.000.000

12.000.000

40.000.000

2018

11.000.000

12.500.000

0

18.000.000

41.500.000

2019

11.500.000

12.000.000

0

19.000.000

42.500.000

2020

9.000.000

10.000.000

0

19.500.000

38.500.000

           

TOTALS

81.500.000

91.000.000

23.700.000

68.500.000

 


 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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I predicted WiiU was going to win back before it came out lol. I did have PS beating Xbox though




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