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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Sony and MS have the courage to compete with Nintendo in 2016?

 

How will this play out?

Sony will compete but MS will status quo 98 24.02%
 
MS will compete but Sony will status quo 21 5.15%
 
Both twins will compete 152 37.25%
 
Nintendo won't be hindered. 137 33.58%
 
Total:408
kristianity77 said:
Even if Nintendo do release a console in 2016 (which I believe is doubtful and too early) the chances are it will only be on a par with the PS4 and Xbox One anyway in terms of power (at best!) By which time both the consoles out now you'd think will have had hefty price cuts so unless Nintendo comes in at a ridiculously cheap price, they still wont really affect anything.


Well, they actually might be able to surpass PS4 and One in terms of power. But then what? Everyone jumping on the Nintendo boat? Or PS4 and Xbone gamers waiting for their next gen consoles to fire the guns and sink that Ninti lifeboat?

And it's not just power. I really don't care for that and give a shit about my gamerscore, but most gamers seem to love their gamerscore/trophylist, their friendlist etc., their exclusives of course and tons of other stuff. Nintendo would have to move lightyears in some points and have to do the opposite of what theyy have done the last thirty years in others.

It's by far not only the hardwarepower.

Then there's the Nintendo gamers.

Bought my Wii U last year. I'd actually be pissed off if there was a Wii U successor in late 2016. By the way that would probably mean no big Wii U title after Zelda U.

A 3DS replacement in late 2016 would be fine though and Nintendo could still use the same API and OS for both systems. The API hopefully not being totally proprietary by the way because that again just makes ports more difficult.





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padib said:

@Cheebee. Sweet. Given we're on the same page, how do you think Sony and MS will react?

That's a tough question, but I'd think they'll largely ignore Nintendo's efforts, at least initially anyway.

We're fast approaching a scenario where Nintendo's becoming self-sufficient, in part because they need to. They cannot rely on 3rd parties anymore, as is blatantly obvious. Sure, there will definitely be 3rd party games, but imo they'll be exclusives catered to Nintendo's systems and their audience. I doubt any of the relevant 3rd parties will want to put their games on Nintendo systems, even if they'd be on par with PS4/X1. There will definitely be a lot of indie support, I'd guess.

But Nintendo can't rely on others to carry their system anymore, so they'll have to make sure they can completely sustain their own platform(s). Which they're fully on their way to achieving, going by reports of their merging teams, hiring new talent, and streamlining anything and everything as much as possible, opting for unified OS's, re-usable assets and whatnot.

So in that sense, Nintendo will be in a different league entirely compared to Sony and Microsoft, enough for both sides not to care too much about the other camp. I should think they'll just continue on with PS4/X1, with Sony phasing out the Vita slowly, and not opting for another handheld. This is all initially of course. Whatever happens in the long run will depend on Nintendo's measure of success and the success and longevity of both the PS4 and X1.

Also, lol @ all the people in this thread completely oblivious to the way Iwata's outlined Nintendo's future and that of their systems, and who keep ignoring your posts meant to educate them about the subject.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

padib said:

The next console we both foresee releasing in 2016 will neither be a handheld or a home console in the traditional sense of the term. It will simply be a first of many Nintendo "brother" devices which will all run largely the same software. So for Nintendo the arms race in hardware is over. They are gearing up to take it over with software. One, beefed-up, unified software library.

They make the games on one console, they are playable on all. So your analysis based on "home console" or "handheld console" is just ineffective because it is based on a soon to be outdated paradigm.


Unifying home and handheld won't solve their software issue. The Wii U has way less software than the PS4, since it won't get any 3rd party game. But the 3DS isn't in a much better shape. Aside of Japanese games (Persona, MH), most of them being niche, it has very few 3rd party support. A lot of the 1st party offers already intersect: MK7 vs MK8, NSB2 vs NSBU, Smash, etc.

And these "unified software" thing isn't easy from a technical standpoint. What's the advantage? What's the catch? Let's see:

- Both run the same software, handheld versions downgraded: It would be like iPhone and iPad, like you said. This have a big, big drawback. It will need a middleware, something to make 2 hardwares that are distinct look like they are the same. And this will remove the magic optimization and will immediatily halve the power of the console. It would be a disaster. And anyway, it isn't possible to simply downgrade the game. When you talk about PS4 and X1, both have the exact same hardware capabilities, with one just being slight more powerful. But everything the PS4 does, the X1 can do, even if it ended with an unplayble framerate. But mobile hardware lacks a lot of the modern functions. Console and mobile hardware aren't even on the same league. Current consoles have the same hardware and shader functions of modern PCs. Current mobiles aren't even on full PS360 hardware functions.

- Both run softwares with similar APIs, software is developed immediatilly: the problem is that the APIs will differ significantly, like I said above. You will end up just developing 2 versions, but with less hassle since the APIs are similar and the learning curve is lower. But that isn't new: PS Vita uses libGDM and it makes it very similar to develop for to the PS4. 

The second bolded part is simply impossible, unless you aren't interested in having console optimization. You would need to sacrifice a lot of power to do it, it would be hard even to make it beat PS4/X1 in power.



padib said:
captain carot said:
There's no real difference between an app and a 'Windows program' or any other program except the name. file management on the other hand is one thing, that is just much less important on a handheld, tablet or console as if you are handling with thousands of files of different types.
Having your single app for example does not mean it is really one file. You just see the single file. More like only seeing a zip-file and not all those nice little subfiles.

The actual game changer was how tablets, smartphones and all those not so smart devices have evolved within the last decade. That was a lot different some years ago.
Basic problem is the same. Microsoft needs an easier to handle, unified eco system. One that by the way might look totally different on a Lumia than on a pc.
But that software environment has to make it easier for devs of any kind.
At the same time that will reduce needed ressources, even for Microsoft themselves.

Nintendo basically needs the same. But that will just make things easier. It's not as much unified as some might think.

Then there is this wizardry 'put your game on a more powerful device and...'
It will run in a higher resolution and with more fps, but that is it. Except you put new textures, meshes... on it. Stuff like parallax occlusion mapping is just not done by itself. Tesselation is not done by itself. Even if some might think.

Basic job for OS stuff: Check, what iOS actually is, where it derrived from and why that makes live easier to some degree for Apple devs but why there still are lots of differences.

Then you actually might understand.

I understand quite fine. Microsoft is having a headache to unify their systems while Google has already achieved it. I know why that is and I don't need a lesson from you for what I already know.

Bottom line is, Google and Apple have been able to blend the underlying operating systems and apps across a variety of devices. Nintendo is also able to achieve this because they don't have the constraints MS has with Windows.

MS trying to consolidate Windows with tablets would be like Apple trying to consolidate Macs with iPads. They didn't try it, I wonder why.

For the record there is a huge architectural difference between apps and traditional windows programs. All are called programs but their architecture is vastly different.

Thing is, MacOS and iOS are the same in many ways. The kernel basically is the same, lots of libraries are.

 

And no, there isn't neccesarily a difference between apps and programs. Mobile apps are just optimized for mobile devices in terms of UI etc. and you have your own integrated environment. Still, basically it just is a program like any other one.



After the incredible success of the WiiU proved that Nintendo can survive purely on 1st party support I haven't a doubt in my mind they will achieve the same level of success with their next console. Furthermore, with the failure of the iPhone and Android it's clear that dedicated handheld gaming is here to stay.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

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Fusioncode said:
After the incredible success of the WiiU proved that Nintendo can survive purely on 1st party support I haven't a doubt in my mind they will achieve the same level of success with their next console. Furthermore, with the failure of the iPhone and Android it's clear that dedicated handheld gaming is here to stay.





KLXVER said:
Fusioncode said:
After the incredible success of the WiiU proved that Nintendo can survive purely on 1st party support I haven't a doubt in my mind they will achieve the same level of success with their next console. Furthermore, with the failure of the iPhone and Android it's clear that dedicated handheld gaming is here to stay.



I'm always serious. But I'm also always trolling. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

It baffles me to see people actually having to point out that Sony, MS and Ninty all start working on their next console as soon as the previous one is released! What would their hardware teams supposed to do until the next hardware launch? Take leave? Enjoy tea parties? Or do people think that designing a console takes mere months?



routsounmanman said:
It baffles me to see people actually having to point out that Sony, MS and Ninty all start working on their next console as soon as the previous one is released! What would their hardware teams supposed to do until the next hardware launch? Take leave? Enjoy tea parties? Or do people think that designing a console takes mere months?

Why yes! I mean, we can all build a gaming PC in a matter of days or weeks, can't we? Surely those big companies can have a fabulous new console ready in no time at all! It's silly they need entire R&D departments for that, anyway.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

A better question would be does Nintendo have the courage to compete with Microsoft and Sony ?

It is Nintendo at a disadvantage compared to the twins since their the one's that came up late with a real competitor!