I think it will be down, because of Japan as you say.

Just no. That would be something very, very surprising. The next game is always supposed to push a lot more than the last one. (See MK8's disappointing boost and Nintendo fans looking towards Smash for a "much bigger" boost).

Would you expect Pikmin to be a bigger HW pusher than lets say Super Mario? It did though with wiiu (japan).

That said i doubt it for Mario Maker, though it could be a small surprise.

This thread is talking worldwide.

The Wii U is already saturated with platformers so I don't see Mario Maker convincing people to make the plunge more than NSMB, Rayman, DKCTF, etc. already are. Really Splatoon and Xenoblade have better system selling potential due to being their IP's first Wii U entry and being of genre's that are barren on Wii U.

The only reason for that was that WiiU was newer then and less Nintendo fans had already bought the system. Super Mario provided a bigger boost though (sustained), especially worldwide

Wii U had a poor Holiday last year because of lacking of games, and this year it have some games, so it must be sold more than last year.

Still think December should be better than November in the West. In Europe it looks so so far, I'm hopeing for something good from the US. Disappointing from Japan though, I did expect a bit better.

People are also forgetting that last year WiiU didn't have any competition in Japan, this year it has PS4.
And my answer is yes, it will be down yoy for Q4, shameful.

Of course not, Japan is only market where is Wii U is selling worse than last year, US and Europe are selling better this year (from Mario Kart releasing).

Wii U numbers for last holiday quarter were 1.95m (Nintendo numbers), I think this year will be around 2.5m.

For this holiday season Wii U have Mario Kart and SSB. two very big hitters, much stronger than last year games.

Meh. Japan's home console market is terrible.
Hanhelds aren't what they used to be over there either, but they're doing ok.
Home consoles, they're dead in Japan.