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Forums - Sony Discussion - Bet: PS4 won't sell under 180k any week in 2015

Nice thread man! and I fully agree with u, it wont sell any lesser than 180k a week.



Add me if u want :)

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Since TLOU remastered came out on PS4 it hasn't dropped below 144K a week according to VG Chartz, so an increase of 36K per week would be needed, not that impossible IMO, I think China could add similar numbers to Japan's lowest point as a minimum, so about 5.6K a week, although the potential is there for a lot more than that. PS4 launches in China on the 11th of Jan and that should help out with early Jan because there aren't a tonne of new games launching until later in the month.

Maybe the beginning of Jan may be lower than 180K, after that I don't think it'll go below that.

Throughout the year the library will be growing a lot compared to what's been released this year, so that will no doubt increase the baseline after January.
Post China release I think 180K per week is probably a pretty fair minimum number for PS4 to sell, although I wouldn't be shocked if the baseline is higher than that.

Ratchet & Clank is meant to be coming out in the first half of 2015, Until Dawn is a summer release, Tearaway Unfolded could be a mid year release.
Uncharted 4 has placeholders for July 31st, so that could be an early Q3 release.

There are a lot of 3rd party releases, like Batman in the middle of the year. New buyers won't just look at a few games coming around when they want to buy the console, but the complete library they can get hold of on that system.
There will be more Japan focused releases throughout the year for that region too, so that will boost sales in Japan.



LordLichtenstein said:

Yes, there I said it. Is anyone willing to make that bet with me - or against me? 


Hear me out, while I make my argument.




Every week under the red line, is a 179.999 or less week. 

- There were 26 weeks in 2014, when PS4 sold less than 180.000.
- PS4 sold an average of 149.982 units in those 26 weeks (30.018)

*Another thing worth remembering is, that PS4 was heavily supply constrained the first 6 months of 2014.


So what will Sony do to make PS4 sell more next year? Nothing? Of course not, but maybe they actually don't need to do anything.



Sure, it is never good thing comparing a generation to the one before it, but still. Generation after generating, after a new Playstation is launched, the following years always beats the one before it in terms of sells. Just look at this picture; PS3 almost sold 30% more in 2008, than in 2007. And again, in 2009 it almost sold 30% more, than in 2008. I believe this exact same thing will happen in 2015.


And now, to the most important thing of all - the games.




And another one including both digital and retail





As you clearly can see, PS4 won't be dealing with any "drought" period in the first half of 2015. Same goes for our friends in Japan.





And not to forget, Playstation 4 will also launch in China on January 11th 2015. 
It is not yet clear how well it will perform, but we do know that it will launching at a cheaper price point, than Xbox One.



So, this is my argument, is anyone willing to make that bet with me? :D



Thread inspired by DarkRPGamer007


To your credit, all recent reports show that the Chinese are far more interested in PS4 than X1.



Great thread Lord "Listenstein"! :D

I'm very much a list man myself (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4). Not for list wars but for the complete overview.

 

Regarding your bet I think the PS4 could get unlucky and sell below 180k during a few weeks in spring/summer due to numerous factors such as post christmas saturation, summer drought, customers awaiting an announced price cut/bundle with a new release, supply constraints, stronger competition (permanent XB1 price cut to $330/$350), etc.

If PS4 price is cut to match XB1 and more games get a release date in the summer months you could end up being right though. Regardless I admire your courage. Just don't go with starcraft's bet (joke, I hope). Permaban vs. 1 week sig control.. Those conditions are laughable.



Sony-For-Life said:
Nice thread man! and I fully agree with u, it wont sell any lesser than 180k a week.


Wuhu :D

JustBeingReal said:
Since TLOU remastered came out on PS4 it hasn't dropped below 144K a week according to VG Chartz, so an increase of 36K per week would be needed, not that impossible IMO, I think China could add similar numbers to Japan's lowest point as a minimum, so about 5.6K a week, although the potential is there for a lot more than that. PS4 launches in China on the 11th of Jan and that should help out with early Jan because there aren't a tonne of new games launching until later in the month.

Maybe the beginning of Jan may be lower than 180K, after that I don't think it'll go below that.

Throughout the year the library will be growing a lot compared to what's been released this year, so that will no doubt increase the baseline after January.
Post China release I think 180K per week is probably a pretty fair minimum number for PS4 to sell, although I wouldn't be shocked if the baseline is higher than that.

Ratchet & Clank is meant to be coming out in the first half of 2015, Until Dawn is a summer release, Tearaway Unfolded could be a mid year release.
Uncharted 4 has placeholders for July 31st, so that could be an early Q3 release.

There are a lot of 3rd party releases, like Batman in the middle of the year. New buyers won't just look at a few games coming around when they want to buy the console, but the complete library they can get hold of on that system.
There will be more Japan focused releases throughout the year for that region too, so that will boost sales in Japan.


I agree with everything, but I don't think Uncharted will release in Q3 :)

Insidb said:

To your credit, all recent reports show that the Chinese are far more interested in PS4 than X1.


Really? I didn't know. I would love to read those reports - do you have link :D

Mike_L said:

Great thread Lord "Listenstein"! :D

I'm very much a list man myself (e.g. 1234). Not for list wars but for the complete overview.

 

Regarding your bet I think the PS4 could get unlucky and sell below 180k during a few weeks in spring/summer due to numerous factors such as post christmas saturation, summer drought, customers awaiting an announced price cut/bundle with a new release, supply constraints, stronger competition (permanent XB1 price cut to $330/$350), etc.

If PS4 price is cut to match XB1 and more games get a release date in the summer months you could end up being right though. Regardless I admire your courage. Just don't go with starcraft's bet (joke, I hope). Permaban vs. 1 week sig control.. Those conditions are laughable.


Awesome, maybe we can help each other out in the future! :D



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Tagged.

I think 2015 will be a great year for PS4, but i also think there is a good chance you lose this bet.



Very nice and well presented argument OP. But I will say no. I think the PS4 will definitely have at least one week under 180K, but with the PS4 we can never say "never"... Good luck



I can see this happening if PS4 exclusives and major multiplats are critically well-recieved and if PS4 gets a $50 price cut. Its existing library also helps.

But if XB1 continues its $350 price with bundles then PS4 will have a tough time mostly due to USA (Damn you USA!).



This bet has a chance to fail in the first weeks of the year.

Other than Batman AK I can´t see any game pushing console sales.

2014 was the perfect storm for the PS4, in the hardcore eyes. Anything can happens but I think part of the public got a hangover from this year overhyped games.



Dark_Feanor said:
This bet has a chance to fail in the first weeks of the year.

Other than Batman AK I can´t see any game pushing console sales.

2014 was the perfect storm for the PS4, in the hardcore eyes. Anything can happens but I think part of the public got a hangover from this year overhyped games.

A price cut is more likely next year though, and with all of Sony's big guns (Uncharted 4, Gran Turismo 7 and God Of War IV) yet to come out they have many games left to push console sales. Also I'm sure multiplatform games like The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt will also push many consoles.