I don't want this to sound like just another NINTENDOOMED post, but I think this is a discussion worth having. So yesterday we learned that the Wii U was up 10% in sales over last November. This modest bump came despite the fact that Smash Bros, one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, had just released. In addition, there seems to be more positive feelings around the Wii U lately, with the apparent strong 2015 lineup. There were also some great games that had been released throughout the year (MK8, HyWa, Bayo2, etc.). All of these factors should have led to the Wii U greatly increasing it's sales YoY, and yet, we only saw a 10% increase over what most people considered to be a pretty terrible 2013 holiday for the Wii U. I think it's worth discussing whether the Wii U has essentially reached the peak of it's market saturation, at least in the US. I mean, it's not like software sales have done poorly, with a 90% increase over last year. This indicates, however, that most of these software sales are coming from people who already have Wii Us, and these new games aren't really encouraging people to buy Wii Us. Obviously, the Wii U will continue to sell at some rate throughout it's lifespan, but I can't help but wonder if November 2014 was the month that officially confirmed that the Wii U basically reached the limits of it's market saturation in the US. 

No, it won't. But Wii U will not grow 10% anymore

It will most likely have healthy numbers (I mean... not horrible) throughout 2015, and then die... UNLESS Nintendo keeps more and more constant releases, instead of waiting 3-5 months for anything worthwhile.

I would say no, but I have reset my total sales expectations for the Wii U several times

Pre-Launch = 50 million
Mid 2013 = 40 million
Early 2014 = 30 million
Now = 20 million

Much of this depends on how low Nintendo can get the price down. I think at sub $200 it can find a second wind as a solid secondary console for many folks. If not, then may have to adjust down to 15 million for total sales.

I believe that there ARE still some gains to be had left in the US so no, I don't fully agree that the WII U has reached market saturation.

It is plateauing but it's still not there yet. With the beginning of next I think the the WII U will have reached a high amount of saturation already in Europe, Japan, and the rest of the world ...

Its doing bad... but its not done yet :0

Yup. Look at my sig. Plus Nintendo prefers making profit rather than selling more at loss.

Saturation would imply 75% of its intended market to me.

So, I think that it is not quite there yet. But, it may be there by the end of 2015.

I also think that Nintendo will launch a replacement by 2016 sometime.

Plateau at the current price level, is the key. Means that even with Smash and what not, they can't get too many more people to bite.

Maybe but like daredevil said, Nintendo is happy with profit alone.