Meaning no tablet controller, no over emphasis on making a super tiny console that ran at the lowest power consumption (which is where Nintendo apparently sunk a lot of their R&D into). Traditional controller + Wiimote support, maybe keep the NFC chip (amiibos are cool). Basically maybe a console about this big:
With this controller:
That $60-$70 production cost of the tablet all goes into a better chipset, maybe not quite as good as the XB1, but lets say 4GB DDR3 RAM + a 1TFLOP GPU. A pretty huge upgrade over the PS3/360 at least.
1 year headstart, lots of restless PS3/360/Wii owners wanting a new console.
Spend a little more money on outsourced projects to ensure no droughts for year 1 (C'mon Nintendo you made a metric ass ton of money off the Wii/DS, why not greenlight an extra 3-4 games for the launch window just in case?). Best versions of Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, NBA 2K, etc. for a year ...
RESULT: In my opinion they wouldn't win this generation, but they'd have a pretty good shot at a solid no.2 finish. MS banked way too hard on the Kinect stuff with a good first year I don't think MS would be able to catch Nintendo.