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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi's preliminary Black Friday week estimates (W.E 29th Nov)

man-bear-pig on 01 December 2014

Thought this warranted it's own thread cos not everyone will see it where it was posted.

Anyway, as you can see these are his preliminary estimates based on incomplete data and it's subject to change but even so these figures are amazing! Over 1m for both the Xbone and PS4. Xbone must've beaten the PS4 by quite a substantial amount in the US in order to come so close to it WW. 

Thoughts?



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

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Seece on 01 December 2014

Glad XB1 is on fire.

PS4 is a lock for 20m+ year end, XB1 a lock for 11m+



 

celador on 01 December 2014

I don't really think we need a thread for preliminary numbers, no matter how interesting. He says himself they may change either way by as much as 20%.



bananaking21 on 01 December 2014

ill wait for official data.



Ninsect on 01 December 2014

PS4 about as I expected WW, but XB1 quite a bit higher. Not sure I believe the difference was that great in the US. PS4 was ahead everywhere online on BF but maybe the rest of the week was too big to overcome



The One and Only

VizionEck.com

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Jizz_Beard_thePirate on 01 December 2014

God, the x1 has come soooo closeee if the real data is anything like that! Congrats none the less!



                  

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man-bear-pig on 01 December 2014

Using his +/- 20% margin of error this leaves us with:

Xbone 880k-1,320k
PS4 960k-1440k

Amazing.



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Angelv577 on 01 December 2014

Nice xbox one comeback, expect gap to be more than 150k in US



Jaywood2010 on 01 December 2014
Ninsect said:
PS4 about as I expected WW, but XB1 quite a bit higher. Not sure I believe the difference was that great in the US. PS4 was ahead everywhere online on BF but maybe the rest of the week was too big to overcome


I said this a few times on the forum, but Black Friday is more about the mass audience lining up at retailers and buying them.  Its not nearly as big online.  Most stuff in stores sells out in the first hour.  Its first come, first serve.  Not saying XBO will have a substantial lead (or a lead at all since the final numbers could be different) but you guys really need not make Amazon the be all, end all retailer, especially on Black Friday where the majority of sells that both companies specifically ship for are at stores within the first hour of black friday.  And yes Im aware PS4 did well on other websites 




       

NewGuy on 01 December 2014
Ninsect said:
PS4 about as I expected WW, but XB1 quite a bit higher. Not sure I believe the difference was that great in the US. PS4 was ahead everywhere online on BF but maybe the rest of the week was too big to overcome


AFAIK XBO was ahead on amazon, walmart, best buy, and target

PS4 was only ahead @ gamestop AFAIK. Shogun (trusted gamespot gaf insider with access to large data sets) said he thinks XBO won Nov NPD. We can guess that the numbers from gamestop's website were online only and/or the difference from the previous 3 weeks were too large to overcome.

From the above, we can see XBO was ahead at every retailer. A +300K on BF (to add to the previous 3 weeks of +200K) would mean the XBO has cut the PS4's lead in half in the US in just one month.