I expect most games pushing graphics on the next-gen go 4k checkerboard rendering. So 4k CB with 30fps will give us a decent upgrade, but yes lower graphics improvement than ps4 gave us.

Why would a console that probably would be 2 times more powerfull than ps4 pro run 4k checkboard 30 fps. That would be almost like native 2k. PS4 pro can reach native 2k now  or 4k chb. And don´t tell me that they are going to make better 2k (4k checkboard)graphics. They would improve native resolution instead to medium quality native 4k, is more marketable. Also as more TVs sold are 4k, PS5 will run natively at the same resolution and be less blurry if the amount of memory is enough.

PS4 had 256Mb of DDR3 dedicated for the OS. It worked so well that they increased the amount to 1GB in the Pro. It's cheap and add memory for the OS, usually OS don't need fast memory.

I don't see how PS5 could not have DDR3 or DDR4 for the OS. The only question is how much. I'd say 4GB minimum.

If AMD's upcoming Zen 2 core complex has six cores instead of four, it would make sense to fit a single 6/12 CCX at 2-2.5 GHz. So, I'm going with that for the CPU. GPU and RAM are a bit more difficult to predict but there is a very, very low chance it will be more than thrice the PS4 Pro (at best).

Other than that I'm sure most games will be 1440p/1800p at best instead of 2160p: it's just too demanding to make the games look noticeably better and still up the resolution. It should be like the last generation, "HD" consoles which render games at 720p or even below. Not sure why people are so fixed on native 4K (besides the Pro console) when there's plenty of precedent for what's probably going to be like.

This is the funny thing..... the PS5 more than any sony console is in a better position to launch at $500 than say $400. Winning the 8th gen at a time digital distribution and paid PS+ with years worth of free games came into its own; pretty much ensures it. This will be a transition where (as long as the PS5 is BC) a bulk of the people that own a PS4 will buy the PS5. If nothing else to carry their existing libraries over. 

Winning the 8th gen by as much as they have also allows them even take a $100 hit on selling cost of the PS5, so they could be selling a $485 console for $399 knowing fully well that they would make that money back from the consumer in less than 3 months. 

But with how they started this gen, with the XB2 most likely also releasing in the same month or even worse a year later than the PS5, and it being the start of the new gen; power isn't an area they can afford to drop the ball on. Especially when achieving it boils down to a slightly better (more expensive)cooling solution.

No... you are looking at this from some strange perspective that I can't understand. Doesn't make sense.....

The OG XB1 APU had a chip size (with all of its 1.2TF GPU) of 368mm sq. The 16nm XB1X (with a 6TF GPU) has a chip size of 360mm sq. Its not only smaller than the OG XB1 but its drawing less power and generating less heat. The reason MS went with a more expensive cooling solution is cause they wanted to go for that super slim form factor. Hence its even smaller than the OG XB1 and the PS4pro.

If going from 16nm in the XB1x to 7nm in say the PS5, in the same 360mm sq area scenario above, hitting 12TF would be a walk in the park, and that is not even accounting for running at a higher clock than what the XB1X clock currrently is. And they dont have to go with better cooling. They can just have a bigger console (which is actually a form of better cooling) remember the XB1X is smaller than the PS4pro. 

In truth, they will have room even after doubling the GPU from 44 computes units as found in the XB1X to 88CUs to also increase clock speeds by around 15-20% while still all being more thermally efficient than the XB1X.  And what I have just said already guarantees well more than 12TF and they haven't even had to start getting creative yet. 

I really don't know how else to say all this to you anymore. 

Agreed. I can see Sony adding a custom audio chip, dedicated RAM for the OS, chip to help boost VR performance and sticking to dedicated 12TF for gaming to keep the price down.

Dedicated 12TF will help get the native 4k performance across most games without compromising on a sloppy OS and losing performance in VR. 

A 12TF GPU will be more than adequate for 4k games at well above 30fps if all other aspects of the GPU sees similar tech advances. Not all TFs are the same. Basically, 6TF in whatever GPU architecture used in 2020 will be better than the 6TF found in the polaris architecture today. And this is something else a lot of posters here aren't taking into consideration.

And not all aspects of game design scale up with the resolution. Eg; if a game is using a 2TF GPU to render at 1080p@30fps, you dont need 8TF GPU to render it at 4 times its rez. There are also a lot of other things like bandwidth for instance that affects how a game performs.

Fact is, with a much better CPU, and as little as an 8TF GPU on a more advanced GPU architecture, memory bandwidth in the 500GB/s range and 16GB of dedicated games app ram, we will have games that look significantly better than what we have on the PS4 today and running in 4k@30fps with high quality textures across the board. Maybe some games will run at 1800p if targeting 60fps. with 10TF they now have room for next gen assets and features or improvements in tech that we simply aren't seeing today on top of that.

With 12TF they have more power than they would need for next gen 4k gaming in a console form factor. 

Now having said all that, I don't even think we will end up with a 12TF GPU. I think it will be much more. At least 15TF if not 16TF on an APU design and as much as 20TF+ if going the discrete CPU/GPU route.

Its easy to get misguided when looking at the GPU TFs alone as an indication of what next gen would bring. But thats just one part of the equation. The reason the PS5 will be much better than the PS4 is because everything will be much better. CPU/GPU/Ram/Bandwidth/IO bus/Thermals....etc. Everything.

Radeon R9 Fury X (275W 28 nm) lauched jun 2015 and it was a 8.6 teraflop graphic card. 512GB/s bandwith.

Radeon RX vega air(295W 14 nm FinFet) launched Aug 2017 and it was a 12.7 teraflop  graphic card. 484 GB/s bandwith, but utilize beter compression tech. 

So, two years and two months,

and AMD could improve flops by 47%, 26 months later with the new architecture.

Now, PS4 pro lauched nov 2016 with 4,2 Teraflops. Let say PS5 launches nov 2020. 48 months later.

If AMD is able to keep its pace in performance improvements, and that gets harder and harder, 

and launchs a 7 nm+ gpu, we can expect:

48 months x 47%(amd improvement) /26 months = 86.7% more performance.

4.2 Tf PS4 pro x 1.867 = 7,84 teraflops. (a little more than 4 x standar PS4)

But, let say Sony try harder, with better cooling, like with Msoft One X. 

One X lauched Nov 2017. It´s a 6 teraflops machine.

Again  let say PS5 launches 2020. 3 years later.

36 months x 47%(amd improvement) / 26 months = 65%

6 Tf XBoX X x 1.65 = 9,9 teraflops. 

So I really don´t understand on what basis one would expect 15 Teraflops on an APU!.

I said I´m expecting 10-12 Teraflops for 2020 and I´m being optimistic.

of course that performance can go higher if they go discrete. 

Edit: I was checking Radeon RX Vega 56 

Specs 10.5 Teraflops. 410 GB/s Bandwith. 210 W. Lauched August 2017. Mostly a 4k 30fps graphic card.

Now, XBox one X peaks 172 W in Gears of War 4.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/11992/the-xbox-one-x-review/6

Take away CPU side consumption, fans, disks, and what´s for the GPU side of the apu? 100w?

Now if they can reduce Vega consumption by half in 3 years, you can have a 10 Teraflop GPU on PS5. Or Sony can go the Nvidia route, which is much more complicated.

Well if they want to keep it at PS4 prices than i see it something like this.

Entry Level Price $399-$499
12TF AMD GPU
16Gigs of GDDR5
8 Core AMD CPU
2TB Harddrive

Premium Price $799-$999
16TF AMD GPU
20Gigs GDDR5
8 Core AMD CPU
2TB SSD Harddrive

With the price hike in PC hardware atm its hard to see next gen consoles being sold at a good price.

Thats because you are basing your calculations off the wrong constants. Look at it this way instead.

Forget whatever one GPU or the other has achieved and how, instead look at the individual compute units and their clocks.

So start with the PS4 OG.
PS4OG = 20CU (2 deactivated)@800mhz = 1.8TF (28nm)
PS4pro = 40CU (4 deactivated)@911mhz = 4.2TF (16nm)

What does that tell you? Exactly doubling the GPU Compute units should theoretically give you 3.6TF. Assuming the clocks stays identical. However, because the GPU has been upclocked from 800mhz to 911mhz that TF value went up from 3.6TF to 4.2TF. And this is before any architecture inprovements have been taken into account.

Now lets use the XB1X as the base.

XB1X = 44CU (4 deactivated)@1172mhz = 6TF (16nm)
PS5/XB2 = 88CU (8 deactivated) @1172 = 12TF (7nm)

Now I am even lowballing this, because

1. one constant going from higher to lower fabrication processes is being able to clock higher because of better thermal efficiency. So at the very least the next gen GPUs should be clocked higher than the 1172mhz seen in the XB1X. 
2. I am assuming that as much as 8 CUs will be deactivated to improved yields.
3. We are not taking any architectural design improvements into account.