sony said there will be less AAA first Party exclusives this gen.
so probably they try to get third Party ones. would make sense

and with the dead xb1 in Japan we have japanese games at least ps4 exclusive unless MS fight for multiplat

PS1 and PS2 got exclusive third party games not only because they had an install base advantage.

But because it was much easier and cheaper to develop only for one platform especially the PS1 vs N64.

Today, with all the pre-backed engines and shared development cycle only a 90% domination would prevent a third party to be exclusive without a marketing/funding deal.

The Xbox One sells way too much software for it to be ignored. It's also similar to the PS4 in architecture so abandoning it wouldn't make sense. Maybe for certain genres like JRPG, but that won't be much different than last gen.

Very unlikely. It would be a very bad business decision. It is like the PS4 had 90% of the make share. Those 10M + (beg. of next year) Xbox One users are potential buyers and selling a AAA only on one console is a very bad move for a third party (they have nothing to win by helping one or another).

I don't think so. Third party's won't neglect the X1 since it would be a lot of lost potential sales.

Only in regions where XB1 is nonexistent or for games that are too small to be on both, barring financial help. Getting development priority is much better, since we've all seen what happens when XB1 gets hardware priority.

If a game sell 5 mill on the Ps4. it will sell around 500 000 on the XB1. it's still 5.5 million with a marginally profitt for the developers lol

No. X1 (at least right now) looks like it will sell decent amount, and third party's wouldn't want to ignore such a large userbase and lose potential sales. Also, devs don't want one console dominating the market since they like competition and getting money from exclusive advertising, DLC etc. .

Definitely yes for Japanese 3rd party and indie games. However, more prominent 3rd party games like Assassin's Creed, COD, and Battlefield will stay multiplat. It will also be more difficult than last gen for MS to buy 3rd party exclusives or timed-exclusives.

Maybe some 3rd party developers might decide to make some more exclusive games for PS4, mostly those games which sell better in Europe. Multiplatform games sell always better on PS4 in the Global charts due to the far bigger user base, but they still sell good on XOne, so I doubt many dev/publishers will waive a slice of earnings.