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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4: 21 million sold by the of 2014? The statistics No.

soony_xbone_U on 26 November 2014
colafitte said:
 


Look, I took my shipment numbers from what I thought PS4 was going to sell, not otherwise, so if PS4 shipments are not enough for you, then PS4 will probably ship more than 21'5. 

Ok then?


That would at least make more sense.

Sony Ps4 shipped vs sold through over the last year

4.5m shipped end of December 2013
4.2m sold through as of 28th December 2013
7.5m shipped end of March 2014
7m sold through as of 6th April 2014
10.2m shipped end of June 2014
10m sold through as of 10th August 2014
13.5m shipped end of September 2014


sources:
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/14q2_sonypre.pdf slide 24
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-global-cumulative-sales-surpass-42-million-239114161.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-70-million-units-worldwide-255558241.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/playstation4-ps4-sales-surpass-10-million-units-worldwide-270947031.html

 

mabe that deseve an own thread



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ICStats on 26 November 2014
VanceIX said:
bouzane said:

He is actually saying six and half million in six weeks and it's worth noting that the competition is currently having very little impact on the PS4, especially the WiiU. Additionally, it doesn't matter what games are being released on the other consoles because the Xbox has very little presence outside of the USA/UK and Halo isn't going to change that. That being said, I think that 21 million by year's end is a bit of a stretch, I personally expect the PS4 to reach approximately 20 million but I have been wrong before.

He's comparing it with the Wii, which was MUCH cheaper than the competition and had a killer game (Twilight Princess) out at the time.

Yeah, no, this is a bad comparison. The PS4 is $50 more expensive than a One bundled with free games and much more expensive than a Wii U, and has no real killer exclusive out right now, while the Wii U has Smash and the One has MCC. 

I doubt the PS4 reaches anywhere close to 21 million. Maybe 18-19 at most, but not 21.

You're right it seems really unlikely.

PS4 is still tracking higher than Wii, but what the OP is missing is that it's not going to keep tracking 32.88% higher average.  It's now 23.59% higher average.  Next week it will likely track higher as PS4 will sell 1 Million+, but after that it's unlikely to keep tracking that way.

-----Wii 2007--------------------PS4 2014-------------------
Nov 03: 296,372-----------Nov 01: 336,109 = 13.41% higher
Nov 10: 282,996-----------Nov 08: 555,726 = 96.37% higher
Nov 17: 469,651-----------Nov 15: 502,084 = 6.91% higher
Nov 24: 673,069-----------Nov 22: 734,388 = 9.11% higher
Dec 01: 699,757-----------Nov 29:
Dec 08: 728,498-----------Dec 06:
Dec 15: 686,612-----------Dec 13:
Dec 22: 1,462,609---------Dec 20:
Dec 29: 737, 820-----------Dec 27:



My 8th gen collection

bouzane on 26 November 2014
VanceIX said:
bouzane said:
VanceIX said:
LordLichtenstein said:
VanceIX said:

Instead of posting a gif, how about making an argument, for why it can't reach 21 million?

You are saying that the PS4 will sell almost 7 million consoles over the span of a month, with both of its competitiors aggresively slashing prices and having the bigger hits over the time period.

Yeah, the GIF is self-explanatory.


He is actually saying six and half million in six weeks and it's worth noting that the competition is currently having very little impact on the PS4, especially the WiiU. Additionally, it doesn't matter what games are being released on the other consoles because the Xbox has very little presence outside of the USA/UK and Halo isn't going to change that. That being said, I think that 21 million by year's end is a bit of a stretch, I personally expect the PS4 to reach approximately 20 million but I have been wrong before.

He's comparing it with the Wii, which was MUCH cheaper than the competition and had a killer game (Twilight Princess) out at the time.

Yeah, no, this is a bad comparison. The PS4 is $50 more expensive than a One bundled with free games and much more expensive than a Wii U, and has no real killer exclusive out right now, while the Wii U has Smash and the One has MCC. 

I doubt the PS4 reaches anywhere close to 21 million. Maybe 18-19 at most, but not 21.


The PS4 doesn't need exclusive games, superior multiplatform titles are doing the job just fine. Additionally, Grand Theft Auto is a lot more popular than Twilight Princess and it's only one of many games releasing for the system this month. Face it, there is no competition for the PS4 in any region outside of Japan, USA and UK. I doubt that the PS4 is going to sell 21 million units but I also think that your 18-19 million prediction is too low.



Kerotan on 26 November 2014

I think 20M plus is a given now. Sony will probably announce 20M or very close to 20M shipped at the December event. MS spinning that 10M number will backfire big time because otherwise Sony might have been happy to just say 18M sold to consumers at the December event. But if they say almost 20M it sounds so much better.



Burner37 on 26 November 2014
BraLoD said:
You can add another 700K+ to the PS4 there


And adjust down last week numbers :(



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Jabbamk1 on 26 November 2014

This will be interesting to track, not only sold through but sold in numbers as well.

The Wii had a wicked sell in this quarter for 2007 so it'll be interesting to see if the PS4 can match that and achieve a similar sell through.



2Ultra on 26 November 2014

My chin rubbing though process says it maxes out around 18 million by the end of the year .



LordLichtenstein on 26 November 2014

UPDATED OP:

-----Wii 2007--------------------PS4 2014--------------------------------------

Nov 03: 296,372-----------Nov 01: 314,356 = 06.07 % (17,984)
Nov 10: 282,996-----------Nov 08: 553,533 = 95.60 % (270,537)
Nov 17: 469,651-----------Nov 15: 481,003 = 02.42 % (11,352)
Nov 24: 673,069-----------Nov 22: 734,388 = 09.11 % (61,319)
Dec 01: 699,757-----------Nov 29:
Dec 08: 728,498-----------Dec 06:
Dec 15: 686,612-----------Dec 13:
Dec 22: 1,462,609---------Dec 20:
Dec 29: 737, 820-----------Dec 27:

4 Weeks: 1,722,088-------4 Weeks: 2,083,280 = 20.97 % (361,192)

Total: 6,037,384-----------Total: 7,303,395 (estimated)

Total: 19,508,070----------Total: 20,307,425 (estimated)

This weeks drop from 32,88 % to 20.97 % was expected, maybe not by this much, but adjustments were made.
Next week (Black Friday) PS4 should be on 30+ % again, hopefully. 

I personally believe PS4 will sell over 1 million next week, on Black Friday. My argument - it was able to sell 734,388 the week before. Also, more and more European contries have adopted Black Friday since 2007.



Kerotan on 26 November 2014
LordLichtenstein said:

UPDATED OP:

-----Wii 2007--------------------PS4 2014--------------------------------------

Nov 03: 296,372-----------Nov 01: 314,356 = 06.07 % (17,984)
Nov 10: 282,996-----------Nov 08: 553,533 = 95.60 % (270,537)
Nov 17: 469,651-----------Nov 15: 481,003 = 02.42 % (11,352)
Nov 24: 673,069-----------Nov 22: 734,388 = 09.11 % (61,319)
Dec 01: 699,757-----------Nov 29:
Dec 08: 728,498-----------Dec 06:
Dec 15: 686,612-----------Dec 13:
Dec 22: 1,462,609---------Dec 20:
Dec 29: 737, 820-----------Dec 27:

4 Weeks: 1,722,088-------4 Weeks: 2,083,280 = 20.97 % (361,192)

Total: 6,037,384-----------Total: 7,303,395 (estimated)

Total: 19,508,070----------Total: 20,307,425 (estimated)

This weeks drop from 32,88 % to 20.97 % was expected, maybe not by this much, but adjustments were made.
Next week (Black Friday) PS4 should be on 30+ % again, hopefully. 

I personally believe PS4 will sell over 1 million next week, on Black Friday. My argument - it was able to sell 734,388 the week before. Also, more and more European contries have adopted Black Friday since 2007.


do you not think EU numbers for PS4 will drop a little next week after the boost the far cry and gta bundles gave it? 



elazz on 26 November 2014
Kerotan said:
LordLichtenstein said:

UPDATED OP:

-----Wii 2007--------------------PS4 2014--------------------------------------

Nov 03: 296,372-----------Nov 01: 314,356 = 06.07 % (17,984)
Nov 10: 282,996-----------Nov 08: 553,533 = 95.60 % (270,537)
Nov 17: 469,651-----------Nov 15: 481,003 = 02.42 % (11,352)
Nov 24: 673,069-----------Nov 22: 734,388 = 09.11 % (61,319)
Dec 01: 699,757-----------Nov 29:
Dec 08: 728,498-----------Dec 06:
Dec 15: 686,612-----------Dec 13:
Dec 22: 1,462,609---------Dec 20:
Dec 29: 737, 820-----------Dec 27:

4 Weeks: 1,722,088-------4 Weeks: 2,083,280 = 20.97 % (361,192)

Total: 6,037,384-----------Total: 7,303,395 (estimated)

Total: 19,508,070----------Total: 20,307,425 (estimated)

This weeks drop from 32,88 % to 20.97 % was expected, maybe not by this much, but adjustments were made.
Next week (Black Friday) PS4 should be on 30+ % again, hopefully. 

I personally believe PS4 will sell over 1 million next week, on Black Friday. My argument - it was able to sell 734,388 the week before. Also, more and more European contries have adopted Black Friday since 2007.


do you not think EU numbers for PS4 will drop a little next week after the boost the far cry and gta bundles gave it? 

Don't think so. Playstation is taking over living rooms. There is a lot of advertising currently and Holidays are approaching. PS4 is getting really popular and people are played out with their tablets and hardcore console gaming is on the rise. Word of mouth is also really good and as that everyone wants to play with each other this is going to be a huge factor as well. I think next week will be more or less the same with a margin of +/- 10%



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