They are at 14.4M on VGC. It's heavily undertracked, so we can assume it is between 15M to 15.4M, for Nov 15. Global data from VGC for PS4 just arrived for Nov 22 and it did 730k, so we have it at 15.2M in VGC and probably almost 16M in real numbers. BF must add almost 1M, Christmas another 1.5M, so it's on 18.5M. It won't do less than 1.5M on the first weeks of December, putting it at 20M easily. It's not that far from 21, just split this extra million between the other weeks and we are good to go.

I don't think there will be more than 1m ps4 on shelves in January. More than 1'5m on shelves for holiday season is normal, and after holiday season is when less consoles on shelves there are, so less than 1m in just January is normal too. In my opinion, if PS4 sells 20'5 aprox., 21'5 m shipped is more than enough.

And that 3x markets you say is 80-90% of the sales from over that 100 you say there are right now, so there's no such difference compared to last year.

This is what I wrote in the "18 million sold PS4's possible by the end of the year?":


" If we assume VG Chartz is accurate (IMO PS4 is still under tracked), then PS4's at 14.4M by the 15th of November, it's doing 500K a week and Black Friday could easily see at least 800k, if not a million, so in that case we're looking at 15.7-15.9M by the end of this month.
18M is easy and probably far lower than anyone should expect at this point.

Personally I think PS4 should have sold over 14M by the end of last month. I think Destiny, the White model and Driveclub weeks are each still under tracked by 100k-200k each week respectively, even going back to when Sony announced they'd sold over 10M (between the 9th and 16th of August) VG still has PS4 at 9.9M, when it should probably be over 10M potentially anywhere below 10.5M.
I think COD week should be seeing even better sales than Destiny, possibly another 300K on top of what it's marked down as on here. I'm personally setting my numbers for the 15th of November as being 15.5M PS4's sold, with 600K-700K for last week (22nd Nov) and a further 1.1M for Black Friday week.
I put PS4 as selling 17.2M by the end of this month.

Personally I think it will go on to sell another 3M units next month at least, if not closer to 4M, so IMO at a minimum 20M is what PS4 will sell by the end of this year, although I don't think it topping 21M is out of the question.


I think Sony can easily ship 22M by the end of this year, if they upped their average over the 15months it will have been shipping to 1.46M a month, not that hard considering they were at 1.1M a month average over the first 3 months of shipments last year. "

21 million will likely require a ~6 million selling December, the Wii had one insane week above 1.4 million in 2007 but was nowhere near 6 million for December. 21 million is a really, really tough sell.

You expect PS4 at 15m before December??. PS4 already passed 15m before Black Friday week. PS4 will be more close to 17m than 15m....and this is even with VGC numbers that are probably undertracking PS4.

Exactly, I mean for the dates when Sony announced PS4 had officially sold well over 10M units VGChartz only has it at 9.9M, so it could easily still be under-tracked by 300K by that time alone. There are questionable tracks for when Driveclub came out, with another 2 new releases that week. Destiny and the White model release seem a bit low too IMO.

COD AW week only has a marginal increase from the week before, with the game selling a million more than the XB1, yet the numbers of hardware sales don't reflect that increase.

IMO 15.5M by the 15th of this month is probably be much bang on, with over 17M being likely by Black Friday, so it's nowhere near 6 million sales in a month, more like 3.8M or somewhere around that, unless at Black Friday week it sells 1.5M then we could be looking at 17.5M.

21M is very likely IMO, at the least well over 20M.

Whoa, wrong number... Sorry, just came home from a 49 hour shift.

5 million for December is still a tall order, I believe too tall, the last week is never very high and drops greatly from the previous three. It would need four weeks above one million in December alone, I just don't see that happening.

I talked about the number of different markets. Not the size. That should be obvious. But if u have to send consoles to 100 different markets compared to 30, you need more on shelfs, and more on your container ships. It all adds up with the other stuff.

Right now, the Ps3 and X360 both have about 1.5m on "shelfs" alone.
So 1.5m for the Ps4 this holiday season on shelfs + wahrehouse + transit is the absolut minimum possible.
If you want the Ps4 to sell through 21m until the end of 2014, the Ps4 need to average over 1m units sold in December per week.

If u sell over one million units per week, u want only 1.5m only shelfs? Sony don't want to sell out again. They need a safety buffer.


Sony will ship 19.5 - 21.5m Ps4 end of 2014 and will sell through 17.5 - 19m (my guestimate)

ufff 49h!!!, Don't worry, these months are crazy, we talk of a million more or less like if it was easy, we lose real perspective compared to the rest of the year and is very easy to change a million for another , but when a console like Wii or PS4 comes around this period of time, it's hard to bet against them, so I won't do it.

Look, I took my shipment numbers from what I thought PS4 was going to sell, not otherwise, so if PS4 shipments are not enough for you, then PS4 will probably ship more than 21'5. 

Ok then?