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Forums - Sales Discussion - How much will Super Smash Bros. for Wii U sell in the first week in the US?

 

Do you think Smash Bros. U will sell over 500k in the US?

yes 259 87.21%
 
no 38 12.79%
 
Total:297
Seece on 22 November 2014
Materia-Blade said:
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

I know that mario kart 8 ended above people's general expectations.

This is smash, during holidays, it's on a whole different level than a collection.

This "collection" will outsell MK's first 2 months combined. Why do you keep trying to undersell it like it's not gonna do huge numbers.

Very much doubt Smash > Halo when NPD rolls around.

In US? because MK8 will probably be on top worldwide since week one. I'm not underselling, you are the one overselling, as if it were a brand new halo. I'm saying it will sell for what it is, a collection. if it were halo 5 vs smash wii u, then there would be competition.


Look at the thread title, nobody is talking about WW here.

You are underselling it. Halo MCC first week > first 4 weeks of Mario Kart



 

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OfficerRaichu15 on 22 November 2014
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:
Seece said:
OfficerRaichu15 said:

smash bros sells like crack in the US too...

Not like Halo, and the smaller userbase to boot.

why do you keep saying that? the smash fanbase is as big as halo's, but smash is a new game while this halo isn't.

Because that isn't true. Artificially high Wii sales of the game do not = fanbase, go look at other Nintendo franchises as a comparison for this.

Halo is in the 6 - 7m range (and 4m for side titles), Smash is in the 3 - 4m. And that's with it being a leggy franchise. So why people are expecting such a huge FW week on what is by far their smallest ever userbase for a Smash release is beyond me.

Like I said. What you're saying about Smash should be true about MK (Sold a lot last gen, huge franchise) yet it hasn't sold as fast as Halo MCC in the US.

Seece you do relize that halo got bigger because of casuals as well right



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

Seece on 22 November 2014
tbone51 said:
Seece said:

This "collection" will outsell MK's first 2 months combined. Why do you keep trying to undersell it like it's not gonna do huge numbers.

Very much doubt Smash > Halo when NPD rolls around.

Had to check, MCC FW > MK8 2 months (more like 37 days though) is definitely possible (885k sold).

Halo > Smash NPD, it also helps out that its 2 out 10 days longer for a bigger gap (note im not saying it would beat it same day release). That said SSBU>Halo in Dec, and might surpass it herein the US

BTW when does Nov NPD end? Nov 29th or Dec 6th?

29th, Dec is a 5 week month.



 

Seece on 22 November 2014
OfficerRaichu15 said:
Seece said:

Because that isn't true. Artificially high Wii sales of the game do not = fanbase, go look at other Nintendo franchises as a comparison for this.

Halo is in the 6 - 7m range (and 4m for side titles), Smash is in the 3 - 4m. And that's with it being a leggy franchise. So why people are expecting such a huge FW week on what is by far their smallest ever userbase for a Smash release is beyond me.

Like I said. What you're saying about Smash should be true about MK (Sold a lot last gen, huge franchise) yet it hasn't sold as fast as Halo MCC in the US.

Seece you do relize that halo got bigger because of casuals as well right

What has that got to do with anything? Halo has been in a consistant range (Halo 2 did on par with 4, 3 and such). And will continue to do those numbers this gen (Read, MCC won't do these figures obviously).

Smash last gen got a huge boost because everything on Wii sold well. Before that the Gamecube copy did well, but there is no precedence of Smash being huge in the US.

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=smash&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200

http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=halo&publisher=&platform=&genre=&minSales=0&results=200



 

OfficerRaichu15 on 22 November 2014
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

I know that mario kart 8 ended above people's general expectations.

This is smash, during holidays, it's on a whole different level than a collection.

This "collection" will outsell MK's first 2 months combined. Why do you keep trying to undersell it like it's not gonna do huge numbers.

Very much doubt Smash > Halo when NPD rolls around.

In US? because MK8 will probably be on top worldwide since week one. I'm not underselling, you are the one overselling, as if it were a brand new halo. I'm saying it will sell for what it is, a collection. if it were halo 5 vs smash wii u, then there would be competition.


Look at the thread title, nobody is talking about WW here.

You are underselling it. Halo MCC first week > first 4 weeks of Mario Kart

it needs over 400k more to beat mario kart's first week(Itll probably get 275k more so it should so a little over 1 million)

plus mario kart was a summer title vs a holiday blockbuster



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

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Materia-Blade on 22 November 2014
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

why do you keep saying that? the smash fanbase is as big as halo's, but smash is a new game while this halo isn't.

Because that isn't true. Artificially high Wii sales of the game do not = fanbase, go look at other Nintendo franchises as a comparison for this.

Halo is in the 6 - 7m range (and 4m for side titles), Smash is in the 3 - 4m. And that's with it being a leggy franchise. So why people are expecting such a huge FW week on what is by far their smallest ever userbase for a Smash release is beyond me.

Like I said. What you're saying about Smash should be true about MK (Sold a lot last gen, huge franchise) yet it hasn't sold as fast as Halo MCC in the US.

First, you can't discredit the wii just for convenience. worldwide, the smash fanbase is roughly the same size as halo's. since the halo fans are more concentrated in US, it's Us fanbase is bigger than smash's. those are facts. but MCC isn't a brand new halo and thus, won't have the selling power of one.

MK isn't front loaded and will end up way above mcc anyway. no need to compare those.



Seece on 22 November 2014
Materia-Blade said:
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

why do you keep saying that? the smash fanbase is as big as halo's, but smash is a new game while this halo isn't.

Because that isn't true. Artificially high Wii sales of the game do not = fanbase, go look at other Nintendo franchises as a comparison for this.

Halo is in the 6 - 7m range (and 4m for side titles), Smash is in the 3 - 4m. And that's with it being a leggy franchise. So why people are expecting such a huge FW week on what is by far their smallest ever userbase for a Smash release is beyond me.

Like I said. What you're saying about Smash should be true about MK (Sold a lot last gen, huge franchise) yet it hasn't sold as fast as Halo MCC in the US.

First, you can't discredit the wii just for convenience. worldwide, the smash fanbase is roughly the same size as halo's. since the halo fans are more concentrated in US, it's Us fanbase is bigger than smash's. those are facts. but MCC isn't a brand new halo and thus, won't have the selling power of one.

MK isn't front loaded and will end up way above mcc anyway. no need to compare those.

Based on sales data from this generation, yes we can.

Go look at Mario kart WiiU vs Wii, Donkey Kong, Just Dance, 2D Mario ect ect ect. Smash isn't as big in the US as the Wii figures suggest. At most it's at the Gamecube levels.

I just gave you links, ignore them if you want but they prove Smash userbase is not anywhere near Halos in the US. That is a fact.

MK will only end up above Halo MCC if it is heavily bundled, as the WiiU is gonna top out at 7m~ in the US lifetime max.



 

Materia-Blade on 22 November 2014
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

First, you can't discredit the wii just for convenience. worldwide, the smash fanbase is roughly the same size as halo's. since the halo fans are more concentrated in US, it's Us fanbase is bigger than smash's. those are facts. but MCC isn't a brand new halo and thus, won't have the selling power of one.

MK isn't front loaded and will end up way above mcc anyway. no need to compare those.

Based on sales data from this generation, yes we can.

Go look at Mario kart WiiU vs Wii, Donkey Kong, Just Dance, 2D Mario ect ect ect. Smash isn't as big in the US as the Wii figures suggest. At most it's at the Gamecube levels.

I just gave you links, ignore them if you want but they prove Smash userbase is not anywhere near Halos in the US. That is a fact.

MK will only end up above Halo MCC if it is heavily bundled, as the WiiU is gonna top out at 7m~ in the US lifetime max.

you mean the games that hasn't stopped selling? then why don't you discredit the x360 too? sales were unusually high for an xbox.

read up there, there's no denying in US, the halo fanbase is somewhat bigger than smash. but mcc won't sell anywhere near as brand new halos.

Mk8 will be also be way above mcc. halo 5 may be a different story.



Jranation on 22 November 2014

I would say 800k, and i think there would be a lot more physical version being sold due to:
People going to stores to buy gamecube adaptor and controllers. And amiibos.

In the end of the day, i see nintendo making so much $$$$$$ from all these things for smash.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Seece on 22 November 2014
Materia-Blade said:
Seece said:
Materia-Blade said:

First, you can't discredit the wii just for convenience. worldwide, the smash fanbase is roughly the same size as halo's. since the halo fans are more concentrated in US, it's Us fanbase is bigger than smash's. those are facts. but MCC isn't a brand new halo and thus, won't have the selling power of one.

MK isn't front loaded and will end up way above mcc anyway. no need to compare those.

Based on sales data from this generation, yes we can.

Go look at Mario kart WiiU vs Wii, Donkey Kong, Just Dance, 2D Mario ect ect ect. Smash isn't as big in the US as the Wii figures suggest. At most it's at the Gamecube levels.

I just gave you links, ignore them if you want but they prove Smash userbase is not anywhere near Halos in the US. That is a fact.

MK will only end up above Halo MCC if it is heavily bundled, as the WiiU is gonna top out at 7m~ in the US lifetime max.

you mean the games that hasn't stopped selling? then why don't you discredit the x360 too? sales were unusually high for an xbox.

read up there, there's no denying in US, the halo fanbase is somewhat bigger than smash. but mcc won't sell anywhere near as brand new halos.

Mk8 will be also be way above mcc. halo 5 may be a different story.

Still not looked at the links have you.

Halo 2 sold 7m~ despite much smaller userbase.

Halo MCC doesn't need to sell as big as mainline Halo to outsell Smash first week (or month). Mainline Halo is like 3.3m in the US first month. MCC only needs to be 1/3rd of that.