Their site is more inaccurate, and the figures have not always been within a million apart. Their Wii numbers had been consistently low, and now suddenly they're consistently higher. Their PS3 numbers were way too low for a long time, now they're much closer. And their 360 numbers are the big controversy, as they marked Microsoft's statement about 10 million shipped as sold, thus making their numbers over a million off. I don't really care about their number incrementer, though when a console reaches a landmark like 7 million, it is not because it passed their counter, it is because the company themselves announced it, or it is reported in various official sources.

Oh, I'm not saying nexgenwars is the end all, be all of console sales, nor is this site, I'm just saying that it's pretty odd how a lot of people attack the site at any chance given...

The question is fairly simple. Do you want linear extrapolation? If within 1 million is good enough, then certainly linear extrapolation would suffice.

The thing about extrapolation is that it's just a linear model and you plug in parameters. And as you all know you can adjust your parameters to fit observed data. That is the criticism for nextgenwars--the numbers are "fitted".

At vgcharts, it's a diffrent methodology. As far as we've been told, they actually collect data from US retailers, and media create or famitsu numbers for japan (is that right?). They are actively trying to secure data for "Others". This approach is a much more satisfactory methodology. 

 

 

 

So Wii is reaching 7 million, and Xbox 360 is only at around 9 million? Wow, the Wii sure is catching up fast.

What's the fuss with this thread? The front page numbers is 6.92 million, and the Wii sells 80 thousand in about 3 days. So yes, the Wii has sold 7 million. (It looks like the first post was edited, but come on: everyone who believes VGC numbers thinks that Wii has just passed 7 million.)

wii_are_better_than_ said: Oh, I'm not saying nexgenwars is the end all, be all of console sales, nor is this site, I'm just saying that it's pretty odd how a lot of people attack the site at any chance given...

nextgenwars has been consistently way off since the count started. To me, the counter is ridiculous. And no matter your feelings on the counter, if you start with way-off numbers no average counter is going to help anything. Why would you be content with a website that just blatantly guesses? I could just as easily create a site with a forum and auto-updating guesses, but so what? At least vgchartz is trying to accurately predict numbers based on real facts. vgchartz also adjusts data so that it's accurate. nextgenwars seems to respond to what the majority of fans want. Wii numbers are suddenly too high? What a surprise...Sony numbers always too low? Go figure.

 

windbane said: nextgenwars has been consistently way off since the count started.

Way off from where? Reality, or similar sites?

The Wii number as always seemed about right. The PS3 number seems a bit low, but with it selling not so great in either Japan or NA, and supposedly doing better than expected in other places where numbers are not so easy to come by, it's hard to tell. The 360 number is the one which raises the most doubts.

But first of all, what's that number supposed to be? They hint at sales to retailers. Well Micrososft publicly announced at CES, in January, they'd shipped 10.4 million consoles to retail. Four months later and with the Elite now selling, they're at 10.7 - which is actually low considering Microsoft's forecasts of 12 million by June (already down from 13-15 million).

If you decide to go with VGChartz, you'll find a difference of 1 million consoles between Microsoft's "shipped", and VGCharz' "sold". Now this just brings an honest question, is it likely that those 1 million consoles, representing ~10% of all LTD sales, have been sitting somewhere in retail warehouses for 4 to 6 months? I find it odd, but I'm just an outsider, and this might be "business as usual".

Again, this does not mean I distrust VGChartz numbers. Actualy, I respect this site a lot (and a lot more that NGW), because they've shown a consistent track record of correcting its estimates when and where appropriate. And that's what's most meaningful to me: realising these are all estimates (even NPD's are), subject to errors. Not a silly piece of code that makes a site more fashionable.

Hey, Wii just passed the 7 million mark.

Hehee. I was bored/unemployed (like i am at this moment) at some point at end of 2006. Here's what it collected from their site: X-Box 360 PS3 Wii 23:14 20.11.2006 X=7,136,085 P=260,545 W=678,302 23:56 7,138,361 260,767 679,864 12:41 21.11.2006 7,180,541 264,871 697,364 21:10 7,208,790 267,619 708,613 00:20 22.11.2006 7,219,335 268,645 712,812 1:30 7,223,220 269,023 714,359 14:00 7,265,345 273,122 731,133 17:20 7,275,890 274,148 735,332 21:00 7,288,155 275,341 740,216 00:00 23.11.2006 7,298,145 276,313 744,194 1:05 7,301,753 276,664 745,631 2:10 7,305,360 277,015 747,067 12:20 7,341,269 280,509 761,366 15:50 7,350,870 281,443 765,189 2:10 24.11.2006 7,385,280 284,791 476,671 13:35 7,410,639 288,490 486,672 22:05 7,429,407 291,244 494,118 1:39 25.11.2006 7,437,282 292,400 497,243 15:31 7,467,899 296,893 509,390 5:23 26.11.2006 7,498,517 301,386 521,537 17:30 7,525,050 305,279 532,064 23:00 7,537,378 307,088 536,955 4:13 27.11.2006 7,548,896 308,778 541,524 10:30 7,562,807 310,819 547,043 15:00 7,572,779 312,283 551,000 0:55 28.11.2006 7.594.675 315,496 559,687 14:37 7,624,888 319,929 631,673 Real N. confirmed. sales 20:55 7,638,799 321,970 637,192 1:46 29.11.2006 7,649,507 323,542 641,441 21:52 7,693,888 330,054 659,048 1:38 30.11.2006 7,702,205 331,275 662,348 16:37 7,735,288 336,129 675,473 23:08 7,749,677 338,241 681,182 1:20 1.12.2006 7,754,535 338,953 683,109 17:03 7,789,237 344,046 696,877 1:00 2.12.2006 7,806,827 346,627 703,856 21:06 7,851,135 353,128 1,121,434 Japan release 3:02 3.12.2006 7,864,272 355,056 1,126,646 13:58 7,888,413 358,599 1,136,224 1:45 4.12.2006 7,914,431 362,416 1,146,546 1:48 5.12.2006 7,967,570 370,214 1,167,629 16:23 7,999,733 374,934 1,180,389 3:35 6.12.2006 8,024,463 378,562 1,190,200 14:00 8,047,463 381,937 1,199,325 0:12 7.12.2006 8,069,984 385,242 1,208,260 13:21 8,098,983 389,497 1,219,765 20:49 8,115,506 391,922 1,226,321 0:03 8.12.2006 8,122,645 392,970 1,229,153 European release, waiting confirmation for selled units amount ! 15:00 8,155,839 397,840 1,242,322 0:12 9.12.2006 8,175,968 400,794 1,250,308 13:02 8,204,267 404,947 1,261,536 1:10 10.12.2006 8,231,095 408,883 1,272,179 1:19 11.12.2006 8,284,381 416,703 1,293,320 23:40 11.12.2006 8,333,767 423,949 1,312,913 3:28 12.12.2006 8,342,120 425,175 1,316,227 15:03 8,367,696 428,928 1,326,374 0:44 13.12.2006 8,389,040 432,060 1,334,842 13:30 8,417,266 436,202 1,346,041 0:28 14.12.2006 8,441,480 439,755 1,705,647 21:59 8,489,026 446,732 1,724,511 3:36 15.12.2006 8,501,427 448,552 1,729,431 12:55 8,521,999 451,570 1,737,592 2:27 16.12.2006 8,551,880 455,955 1,749,447 17:04 17.12.2006 8,637,109 468,462 1,783,261 2:00 18.12.2006 8,656,834 471,356 1,791,087 16:16 8,688,371 475,984 1,803,599 0:25 19.12.2006 8,706,330 478,619 1,810,724 18:51 8,747,031 484,591 1,826,871 0:52 20.12.2006 8,760,315 486,541 1,832,142 2:13 21.12.2006 8,816,288 494,754 1,854,348 3:06 22.12.2006 8,871,267 502,822 1,876,161 7:01 23.12.2006 8,932,907 511,867 1,900,616 4:18 24.12.2006 8,979,901 518,763 1,919,260 2:10 25.12.2006 9,028,183 525,847 1,938,415 1:39 27.12.2006 9,133,026 801,232 1,980,011 After this point, i started to follow vgcharts.org :p

KruzeS said: windbane said: nextgenwars has been consistently way off since the count started. Way off from where? Reality, or similar sites? The Wii number as always seemed about right. The PS3 number seems a bit low, but with it selling not so great in either Japan or NA, and supposedly doing better than expected in other places where numbers are not so easy to come by, it's hard to tell. The 360 number is the one which raises the most doubts. But first of all, what's that number supposed to be? They hint at sales to retailers. Well Micrososft publicly announced at CES, in January, they'd shipped 10.4 million consoles to retail. Four months later and with the Elite now selling, they're at 10.7 - which is actually low considering Microsoft's forecasts of 12 million by June (already down from 13-15 million). If you decide to go with VGChartz, you'll find a difference of 1 million consoles between Microsoft's "shipped", and VGCharz' "sold". Now this just brings an honest question, is it likely that those 1 million consoles, representing ~10% of all LTD sales, have been sitting somewhere in retail warehouses for 4 to 6 months? I find it odd, but I'm just an outsider, and this might be "business as usual". Again, this does not mean I distrust VGChartz numbers. Actualy, I respect this site a lot (and a lot more that NGW), because they've shown a consistent track record of correcting its estimates when and where appropriate. And that's what's most meaningful to me: realising these are all estimates (even NPD's are), subject to errors. Not a silly piece of code that makes a site more fashionable.

That is exactly what happened. In the days leading up to the end of the year, Microsoft shipped 360's until they met their goal of 10 million, with no regard to the retailers they were shipping them to.

 SINCE december 31st (i think was the date) they shipped only 500,000 more.

They have NOT reached 10m sold, and reached 10m shipped almost 5 months ago, if i remember right.