This is all very true. It's simply too early to determine much other than :
The X1 initially sold REALLY well with the price drops, and is now falling. But how far will it fall?
We still have yet to really see what Sony has planned for the US this holiday, and it seems ludicrous that they don't have some surprises.
A positive for X1 is that this action can hopefully spark some clearing of the old SKUs that weren't selling well. It is often overlooked how damaging it can be to overproduce/overload the channel, because then more attractive newer SKUs have less space to go, and retailers are more hesitant to place big orders for them. This early November boost gives them more credibility and the odds of getting big orders coming in for BF through Christmas.
X1's big problems however don't really include this Nov/Dec. Even if they lose, it won't be by a huge margin (they won't win by much either if they do of course). Their huge issue is that sales are almost certainly going to tank hard from Dec 26th onward. The baseline demand hasn't been there, and the lineup seems heavy towards things that will favor PS4 all the way into deep in 2015.
I actually think this is great for gamers, one company losing pretty hard on a regular basis, as it creates pressure to make better deals.
If X1 hadn't lost so many NPDs in a row, often by huge percentages, would we see these excellent $349 bundles a year in? Not a chance. And unless we're living in a true bizarro-world, Sony will come out with some great deals to counter as well, as surely they won't simply do nothing for the rest of the year, it would be incredibly ignorant to believe that. And in 2015 when the X1 is getting pummelled, we have an excellent chance of seeing $299 and even $249 X1 deals by mid-year.
i'm not sure how quickly sony can just announce a bundle or whatever. at this point the holiday plan is more or less set and we'll see how things ride out. the big wild card is sony's december event. the highest sales week is the last week before xmas and if sony can highlight just how much is coming in early 2015 as compared to xbox's lack of anything they could really take the wind of of ms's sails especially if sony has something really good to annouce.