Because in the post I quoted you said that UC4 would need to have a 1 out of 4 attachrate to sell more than 5 million. So either you thought it releases this year, or you think the PS4 will only have sold 20 million by late 2015 :-O

Sure I'll bet. UC 4 will have sold more than 5 million by the end of 2016 (yes, 2016). 

I don't care who makes more, as long as Nintendo profits I'm happy.

All I can say is Nintendo is taking a lot of my student loans :P

I don't think its turning much of a profit, if any at all.

There's a reason why they don't bother with supporting it first-party, or in general even shipping it outside of Japan. The money they have to spend marketting, stocking, and even building the thing costs them too much given the returns to justify it. If the n3DS eats more and more into their niche establishment in Japan, it really will turn into a money pit they will have to discontinue.

And I also said that it would have to sell 7m this holiday to even hit 20m by 2015. I ALSO said (in the very next sentence, even), that even if in 2015 they sell 20m, it would be difficult since the last UC had less than 1 in 10 owners purchasing. I even posted the 10-week countdown thread (authored by myself) which doesn't include UC4 in this year.
Smh

5million by 2016? HAH
Ccertainly aiming low there. And here you both are telling me I'm being ridiculous, when you're giving it 2 holidays before 5m. pfft.
Again, let's make this simple. I'm not going to wait 2 years to finish this argument.

How about this.
No more than 1.7m first week
No more than 2.4m first month
No more than 4m by jan 1 2016

Jan 1 2016? That's not the bet I want to take. But it'll do way more than 1,7 million first week!

no, I'm saying that the lifetime sales will be way more than 5 million, and I assume you're talking lifetime as well. I don't think it'll pass 5 million before the end of 2015!

If you use attach rate from a system late in it's lifetime then the numbers will obviously be skewed. In that case, SSBU will only have a 1 to 9 attachrate, and will only sell ~2 million lifetime. We both know it will be waaay higher, which just proves that you can't use past attachrate to predict future sales. In that case Halo 3/4 would have a 1 to 2 attach-rate on the 360 and they'd sell 40 million each. Did that happen?

You know, if we dig around the financials, maybe we'd get a true idea how much of that profit comes from not being 3rd party.

I give it 3 years to do 6 millions

I remember when people said Uncharted 3 will not sell more then 3 millions it does the double you and people always underestimate this IP

Teeqoz you said it would hit 10m easily. Small44, you implicitly agreed with him by countering me on his post.
Yet both of you only think it will do 5m by jan 1 2016?

Ok, how about this.
1.7m first month
Jan 1 2016 3.2m
2m more sold in 2016 for a total of 5.2m

Would you take that bet? Both of you said way higher than 5m, but you're holding me to 5m? That's really cowardly to not defend your analysis like that.

Microsoft will pull the most profit in 2015, I think Nintendo will also pull a much smaller profit and Sony will probably have around 2b loss

We're talking game division. Obviously MS will post the most profit. They are the only ones that are actually a functional company with lots of other successful products.