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Forums - Sales Discussion - Week 4/6: DONE!!! Prediction: XB1 to outsell WiiU LTD Black Friday

 

Will XB1 Outsell WiiU LTD on Black Friday?

Yes 100 52.08%
 
No 92 47.92%
 
Total:192
fluky-nintendy on 30 October 2014

You should have had predicted this in May or something, because now it's a very easy prediction :P



...Let the Sony Domination continue with the PS4...
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vivster on 30 October 2014
Seece said:
maverick40 said:
What a safe prediction. Must have taken you ages to come up with that?

Considering people are still 50/50 on whether WiiU will overtake XB1 at all?

But yeah it's safe IMO

Still tho, keep on contributing like always.

Don't confuse "people" with the ungodly amount of Nintendo fanboy lurkers making a joke out of all the polls.

Pretty sure that at least 100% of people with half of a brain knew from the start that X1 will crush Wii U.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

TheWPCTraveler on 30 October 2014
Seece said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:

Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.

I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~

Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~ This is assuming the Wii U and XB1 are accurately tracked on VGC, no? If we go by what you claim: that the XB1 is undertracked, and the Wii U overtracked, that gaps should be even smaller. ~600-620k at this point, if we assume an 850k gap by end-September.

W/E 25th Oct should see another 80k lead from XB1, 570k~ I'll trust you on this one, ~520-540k

W/E 1st is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose.

I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. So 130k gains, 440k~ I expect Wii U rising this week, slightly further. ~390-420k

W/E 8th is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases.

75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k gap. 215k~ I'll play it safe and give a range that I expect if I go by what you say, since I'm not experienced with what happens to XBoxes. Won't there be more impact on PS4, though? ~180-220k

W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~ Halo:MCC drops? Not gonna doubt these figures, but some Wii U bundles will release on this day, which may put Wii U past 100k. ~30k-70k

W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. I'm willing to bet WiiU could win this week with a huge boost, 250k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 75k~ SSB is big. I expect Wii U to sell at least a quarter million here. Bundles here and there, after all. Also, won't the impact GTA V has be slightly mitigated by both the PS4 release and the fact that it's available on last-gen? ~60-90k

W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 75k remaining gap demolished. It won't be broken this week, 50% chance. Who says Nintendo isn't capable of dropping the price as well, and throw a couple bundles our way?  You may as well factor what the PS4 can do here, too.

Comments in italics.

W/E 8th, COD is tracking ahead of PS4 standalone in US, despite the bundle. COD is biggest in US, along with the bundles (which have nout to do with PS4) = BIG week.

W/E 22nd, I just adjusted down my Wii figure as it's US only. I'm sure WiiU will be up YOY, but you have to remember it did 220k in the entire Nov NPD last year. Take that into consideration, because US is the only place that will get a Smash boost that week. GTAV will still help XB1, it's a huge franchise. It'll just do bigger and better on PS4. It's complimented by Dragon Age and Far Cry 4 releases as well that week.

W/E Black Friday - This is an American holiday and WiiU doesn't stand a chance against XB1 in America on Black friday. Not a chance.

Then, if I take into account what you said, won't the Wii U be overtaken on w/e 22/11?



 
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SweetTalia on 30 October 2014
vivster said:
Seece said:
maverick40 said:
What a safe prediction. Must have taken you ages to come up with that?

Considering people are still 50/50 on whether WiiU will overtake XB1 at all?

But yeah it's safe IMO

Still tho, keep on contributing like always.

Don't confuse "people" with the ungodly amount of Nintendo fanboy lurkers making a joke out of all the polls.

Pretty sure that at least 100% of people with half of a brain knew from the start that X1 will crush Wii U.

If that's the case.. there is a whole lot of ungodly amount of Nintendo fanboy lurkers ..go ahead and make a thread poll with sales prediction of x1vswiiU.. See the result for yourself.



Praise the One.

celador on 30 October 2014

Seems likely, although isn't exactly the greatest achievement given Wii U's abysmal sales



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Seece on 30 October 2014
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:
TheWPCTraveler said:
Seece said:

Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.

I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~

Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~ This is assuming the Wii U and XB1 are accurately tracked on VGC, no? If we go by what you claim: that the XB1 is undertracked, and the Wii U overtracked, that gaps should be even smaller. ~600-620k at this point, if we assume an 850k gap by end-September.

W/E 25th Oct should see another 80k lead from XB1, 570k~ I'll trust you on this one, ~520-540k

W/E 1st is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose.

I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. So 130k gains, 440k~ I expect Wii U rising this week, slightly further. ~390-420k

W/E 8th is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases.

75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k gap. 215k~ I'll play it safe and give a range that I expect if I go by what you say, since I'm not experienced with what happens to XBoxes. Won't there be more impact on PS4, though? ~180-220k

W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~ Halo:MCC drops? Not gonna doubt these figures, but some Wii U bundles will release on this day, which may put Wii U past 100k. ~30k-70k

W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. I'm willing to bet WiiU could win this week with a huge boost, 250k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 75k~ SSB is big. I expect Wii U to sell at least a quarter million here. Bundles here and there, after all. Also, won't the impact GTA V has be slightly mitigated by both the PS4 release and the fact that it's available on last-gen? ~60-90k

W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 75k remaining gap demolished. It won't be broken this week, 50% chance. Who says Nintendo isn't capable of dropping the price as well, and throw a couple bundles our way?  You may as well factor what the PS4 can do here, too.

Comments in italics.

W/E 8th, COD is tracking ahead of PS4 standalone in US, despite the bundle. COD is biggest in US, along with the bundles (which have nout to do with PS4) = BIG week.

W/E 22nd, I just adjusted down my Wii figure as it's US only. I'm sure WiiU will be up YOY, but you have to remember it did 220k in the entire Nov NPD last year. Take that into consideration, because US is the only place that will get a Smash boost that week. GTAV will still help XB1, it's a huge franchise. It'll just do bigger and better on PS4. It's complimented by Dragon Age and Far Cry 4 releases as well that week.

W/E Black Friday - This is an American holiday and WiiU doesn't stand a chance against XB1 in America on Black friday. Not a chance.

Then, if I take into account what you said, won't the Wii U be overtaken on w/e 22/11?

Possibly but I think it'll be black friday, because any miscalculations I've done that could benefit the WiiU will be made up in this week and then some.




 

ShootdaFrog on 30 October 2014

Nintendo fans sure are out of touch, those poll results on here lol.



vivster on 30 October 2014
SweetTalia said:
vivster said:

Don't confuse "people" with the ungodly amount of Nintendo fanboy lurkers making a joke out of all the polls.

Pretty sure that at least 100% of people with half of a brain knew from the start that X1 will crush Wii U.

If that's the case.. there is a whole lot of ungodly amount of Nintendo fanboy lurkers ..go ahead and make a thread poll with sales prediction of x1vswiiU.. See the result for yourself.

Why would I need to make a poll? Proof is already plenty.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=192373



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

mii-gamer on 30 October 2014

I picked no in the poll as it seems to rub people the wrong way here



SweetTalia on 30 October 2014
mii-gamer said:

I picked no in the poll as it seems to rub people the wrong way here

lol :-p



Praise the One.