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Week 4/6: DONE!!! Prediction: XB1 to outsell WiiU LTD Black Friday

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Will XB1 Outsell WiiU LTD on Black Friday?

Yes 100 52.08%
 
No 92 47.92%
 
Total:192

Yup. I don't believe the gap is 1.3m on the front page (though no adjustments have happened yet). I think WiiU was around 7m end of September and believe XB1 needs adjusting up, as 1.55m/1.75m on shelves is too much.

EDIT 11th November - **XB1 needs adjusting up a LOT based on 10m shipped~ and WiiU down 100k**

I believe it was 6.1/6.2m end of September. So the gap is around an average of 850k~


Half of Oct 4th, Oct 11th and Oct 18th = 200k for XB1 so gap decreases to 650k~

5th Nov Update - Gap decreased 180k~

**NOTES** - Adjustments are yet to happen.

W/E 25th Oct - Should see another 80k lead, LTD Gap 570k~

5th Nov Update - Gap decreased 90k
13th Nov Update - Gap decreased 50k (LTD GAP 1.1m)


**NOTES** - XB1 adjusted down 40k for seemingly no reason, given we just had the 10m shipped data. I await further adjustments. LTD GAP is 1.1m


W/E 1st - Is a bit of a hard one, Sunset Overdrive, White bundle sold out (but limited anyway) but more importantly the $349 deal. Since the deal was announced XB1 shot up on Amazon and is outselling PS4 there 2:1. But most of those bundles don't release until the following week (2nd) except one, the regular sku, which rose. I'm going to guess 50k WiiU vs 180k XB1, that's a 50k rise from Sunset, bundles and the regular sku rising. 130k Lead, LTD Gap 440k~

11th Nov Update - Gap decreased 88k
13th Nov Update - Gap decreased 111k (LTD GAP 990K)

**NOTES**
- XB1 closed the gap 88k but then was adjusted up based on the 10m XB1 shipped news, so now stands at 111k for this week, that's still about 20k less than I predicted. LTD GAP is 990k


W/E 8th
- Is going to be mental. All those XB1 bundles you see in the top 50 on Amazon (COD and AC being top 10, regular, AC Kinect being top 50) will release the first day of the tracking period, then 2 days later Call of Duty releases. 75k WiiU Vs 300k+ XB1, at least a 225k lead, LTD Gap 215k~

13th Nov Update - Gap decreased 342k (LTD GAP 648k)

**NOTES** - XB1 saw sales triple in the US this week, selling over 415k WW. Gap decreased 117k more than I expected which makes up for the last 2 weeks despite adjustments that do not favour me. LTD GAP is 648k



W/E 15th. Assassins Creed, HALO MCC along with continued bundles. WiiU around 90k (continues to be up YOY) and XB1 250k, 55k~

W/E 22nd. This is a very tricky week. Smash Bros WiiU releases which is sure to give it a huge boost it is however US only. GTAV also releases, but that is being advertised on PS4. 200k WiiU (MK was 140k) Vs 230k XB1. 25k~

W/E Black Friday - XB1 will go bananas in America = 25k remaining gap demolished.



 

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That'd be pretty close to my prediction way back when. I think I predicted in a thread somewhere that it would take 52 weeks, so one year after launch to pass the WiiU



 

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Maybe. Now predict when the VGC frontpage will reflect that^^



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vivster said:

Maybe. Now predict when the VGC frontpage will reflect that^^

Well exactly, I have a feeling the adjustments won't match my opinions, but they seem perfectly fesible and logical.

1.1m/1.3m stock on shelves for XB1 is more than enough ... and 300k for WiiU is low as it is. It shouldn't be below that like it was all last Q (70k ...)

I'll know if this panned out right, if the gap is below 500k Black Friday and no adjustments were made.

(And will declare myself victorious)



 

Its impressive how xbox one on amazon is going at the moment... probably why all the amazon threads have dried up. lol

Xbox ONE consoles currently at number 9, 10, 44, 46

PS4 consoles at numbers 11 and 29

WiiU at number 75



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What a safe prediction. Must have taken you ages to come up with that?



kowenicki said:
Its impressive how xbxo one on amazon is going at the moment... probably why all the amazon threads have dried up. lol

Xbox ONE consoles currently at number 9, 10, 44, 46

PS4 consoles at numbers 11 and 29

WiiU at number 75

Indeed. Call of Duty week is going to be ridiculous. Just a shame MS didn't bother in Europe/elsewhere.



 

maverick40 said:
What a safe prediction. Must have taken you ages to come up with that?

Considering people are still 50/50 on whether WiiU will overtake XB1 at all?

But yeah it's safe IMO

Still tho, keep on contributing like always.



 

Pretty much writing on the wall after shipments were revealed.



Going for the record of "Most XB1 vs Wii U Sales Threads On the Front Page," I see.