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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD: Halo MCC Vs. LittleBigPlanet 3 Vs Smash WiiU

 

How will they rank?

Halo MCC, LBP3, Smash 24 4.80%
 
Halo MCC, Smash, LPB3 178 35.60%
 
Smash, Halo MCC, LBP3 212 42.40%
 
Smash, LBP3, Halo MCC 45 9.00%
 
LBP3, Halo MCC, Smash 12 2.40%
 
LBP3, Smash, Halo MCC 29 5.80%
 
Total:500
Hedra42 on 25 October 2014
Seece said:
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:
 

Attach rate hasn't been very kind to WiiU so far tho has it? I mean at least in the first month.

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase, that's about 17%~ attach rate. Super Mario3D World did 220k on a 1.6m userbase (during November/Black friday) that's a 14%~ attach rate.

Titanfall did 1.1m~ on a 2.5m install base. Over 40% attach rate.

Also, Halo 3 (which came out around same time Halo 5 will come out) had a 40% attach rate, and I think Gears had a 30% attach rate too.

Bolded statement and comparisons are irrelevant for predictions because of inconsistent number of days of sale, how big the user base was before the bundles came out, and in one case, which gen it was. I could argue that in its first month of sale, Nintendoland's attach rate was 79%, but that would be ridiculous.

But for the hell of it -

Mario Kart did 400k on a 2.4m userbase (17%) in just 2 days. First month from release date: 1.9/6/6 - 29%.

Super Mario 3D world did 240k on a userbase of 4.2m, (14%) in 9 days. First month from release date: 552k/2m - 25%.

Titanfall did 1.1m on a 2.5 install base (over 40%) in 18 days. First month from release date: 948k/2.6 - 37%.

Halo 3 did 2.4m on a userbase of 6.4 (37%) in 5 days. First month from release date: 3.2/6.8 - 47%

 

Not as bad as you claim.

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.

Nope, this isn't hilarious, it's pathetic - for using 2 days of sales at the end of May to suggest that Wii U has a low attach rate in the first month generally. I'm pointing out that the examples you used to back it up are irrelevant, because of the varying dates they come out during the month.



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Seece on 25 October 2014
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.

Nope, this isn't hilarious, it's pathetic - for using 2 days of sales at the end of May to suggest that Wii U has a low attach rate in the first month generally. I'm pointing out that the examples you used to back it up are irrelevant, because of the varying dates they come out during the month.

They are similar time frames to Smash, as is the Halo MCC to Titanfall and Halo 3. Thus they are the most relevant.

And "first month" in these terms obviously means its first NPD.



 

ExplodingBlock on 25 October 2014

Voted Halo, Smash, and LBP3
Halo will win because of America
Smash will be close, but I think Wii U will still be ahead of XB1 by November, however Halo will win because most of the XB1 install base is in America
LBP3 was never really a big seller and although PS4 has a bigger install base than Wii U and XB1, it probably will not sell nearly as much



Welfare on 25 October 2014

1. Halo MCC (Halo alsways sells well in the US. Will have a huge attach rate)
2. Smash (Only major game coming out for the Wii U this holiday. Will also have a huge attach rate)
3. LBP3 (It'll sell alright, but I doubt it'll sell much compared to the other 2)



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

DélioPT on 25 October 2014

Tough cal, to be honest.
Although i put Smash in front of Halo MCC, i'm not really sure. Maybe it will happen, not much because of the competition for Halo, but more because of the PS4 success that will drive people away from it, specially during thanksgiving.

And if amiibo is marketed correctly, it could really benefit Smash sales.



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hiimnew on 25 October 2014

I don't think MC will sell as much as people are expecting. LBP won't sell to the current PS4 install base

SSB>MC>LB



Hedra42 on 25 October 2014
Seece said:
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.

Nope, this isn't hilarious, it's pathetic - for using 2 days of sales at the end of May to suggest that Wii U has a low attach rate in the first month generally. I'm pointing out that the examples you used to back it up are irrelevant, because of the varying dates they come out during the month.

They are similar time frames to Smash, as is the Halo MCC to Titanfall and Halo 3. Thus they are the most relevant.

And "first month" in these terms obviously means its first NPD.

Smash is coming out on 21st November. It will have 9 days sales, compared with Mario Kart 8's 2 days sales.

MK8 reached 17% in 2 days. In fact, had it been released 7 days earlier, it would have been around 22%.

Super Mario 3D World only did 14% in 9 days.

Even when put on a level ground, you can't gauge it in this way - the appeal of the game itself and the way it is packaged has a lot to do with it. Not only that, Smash Bros is a real wild card this time around - Nintendo's marketing strategy with the staggered release of the 3DS and Wii U and interconnectivity between the two versions of the game will either be a stroke of genius and hugely enhance sales of software and hardware, or it will be a complete failure and do nothing. Opinions on that are very much divided.

But to state that a console has a generally low attach rate by citing the attach rate of a game after 2 days of sales is nonsense - especially when comparing with Titanfall, which was released on the 11th of the month.

 



Seece on 25 October 2014
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:
Hedra42 said:
Seece said:

This is all so hilarious because, actually, it is your sums that are irrelevent. We're talking NPD November here. Those are the sales they did on the userbase by the end of November NPD. So what they did the following month has no bearing on this thread.

Smash will also get around 9 days, so you apply the attach rates I came up with to see how it'll fare in November ... NPD.

Nope, this isn't hilarious, it's pathetic - for using 2 days of sales at the end of May to suggest that Wii U has a low attach rate in the first month generally. I'm pointing out that the examples you used to back it up are irrelevant, because of the varying dates they come out during the month.

They are similar time frames to Smash, as is the Halo MCC to Titanfall and Halo 3. Thus they are the most relevant.

And "first month" in these terms obviously means its first NPD.

Smash is coming out on 21st November. It will have 9 days sales, compared with Mario Kart 8's 2 days sales.

MK8 reached 17% in 2 days. In fact, had it been released 7 days earlier, it would have been around 22%.

Super Mario 3D World only did 14% in 9 days.

Even when put on a level ground, you can't gauge it in this way - the appeal of the game itself and the way it is packaged has a lot to do with it. Not only that, Smash Bros is a real wild card this time around - Nintendo's marketing strategy with the staggered release of the 3DS and Wii U and interconnectivity between the two versions of the game will either be a stroke of genius and hugely enhance sales of software and hardware, or it will be a complete failure and do nothing. Opinions on that are very much divided.

But to state that a console has a generally low attach rate by citing the attach rate of a game after 2 days of sales is nonsense - especially when comparing with Titanfall, which was released on the 11th of the month.

 

Eeesh, you're still missing the point.

The games I used are relevent for this discussion because they offer a similar time frame.

Halo releases on the 11th, so did Titanfall.

Mario Kart towards the end (thus the super low attach rate for a huge game) and Super Mario 3D the exact same week Smash will.

If MK and Mario had released on the 1st and aquired the 30%~ attach rate like you show, how would that benefit Smash predictions given it launches later in the month? Because as my figures show it wouldn't have a 30% attach rate.

But I'm not even saying Smash can't have a 30% attach rate, it has all the chance of performing much better than Mario and Mario Kart, it's just there as a guide.



 

Hedra42 on 25 October 2014
Seece said:
Hedra42 said:

Smash is coming out on 21st November. It will have 9 days sales, compared with Mario Kart 8's 2 days sales.

MK8 reached 17% in 2 days. In fact, had it been released 7 days earlier, it would have been around 22%.

Super Mario 3D World only did 14% in 9 days.

Even when put on a level ground, you can't gauge it in this way - the appeal of the game itself and the way it is packaged has a lot to do with it. Not only that, Smash Bros is a real wild card this time around - Nintendo's marketing strategy with the staggered release of the 3DS and Wii U and interconnectivity between the two versions of the game will either be a stroke of genius and hugely enhance sales of software and hardware, or it will be a complete failure and do nothing. Opinions on that are very much divided.

But to state that a console has a generally low attach rate by citing the attach rate of a game after 2 days of sales is nonsense - especially when comparing with Titanfall, which was released on the 11th of the month.

 

Eeesh, you're still missing the point.

The games I used are relevent for this discussion because they offer a similar time frame.

Halo releases on the 11th, so did Titanfall.

Mario Kart towards the end (thus the super low attach rate for a huge game) and Super Mario 3D the exact same week Smash will.

If MK and Mario had released on the 1st and aquired the 30%~ attach rate like you show, how would that benefit Smash predictions given it launches later in the month? Because as my figures show it wouldn't have a 30% attach rate.

But I'm not even saying Smash can't have a 30% attach rate, it has all the chance of performing much better than Mario and Mario Kart, it's just there as a guide.

OK now I see where you're coming from.

Just be a little clearer for us relative newbies here, ok? :P



MoHasanie on 25 October 2014

MCC will sell the most, and LBP the least.



    

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