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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales October 13-19 2014

Kresnik said:

Vita had momentum in early 2013 after the price cut, which was frittered away by the middle months of the year and then was built up again after the slim release.  They carried that on with at least some compelling software in Q1 and a particularly strong March and at least a couple of desirable games a month.  Momentum has been lost given that we're literally just waiting for November with Dengeki Bunko and Phantasy Star.

Does 3DS have a particularly strong Q1/Q2 to keep any of this momentum they've built up, or will they have to do it again from scratch?

The Vita thing was a lot of mismanagment and, as I alluded, the system just doesn't have killer apps to maintain "hype" momentum even during doldrums and middle-ware release schedules. The price cuts don't usually, I feel, amount to much momentum long term. They are just pent up fringe-sales that give a nice, temporary boost. Refreshes are the bigger deal or the come-off from a killer release schedule that got things moving. They squandered that momentum off the Slim with... well being Sony. They killed the unit and any of its momentum when they said they wouldn't be supporting it.

As for the 3DS, its hard to say. That's why I left my analysis as "pending" because I don't know when Xeno, STEAM, or a number of other titles that have been announced, will launch. Moreover, the 3DS is really wierd with announcing games a handful of months ahead of release rather than years+. Titles will pop in out of nowhere. Right now, Q1 looks weak but not nearly as bad as Q1 2014. It will be an interesting thing to see if this massive holiday momentum atop of the strength of the new hardware, will be used or squandered. I don't think Nintendo will willingly squander this because this is their "hold" till 2016's new hardware (likely). The WiiU pipelines have already been fed at this point, too.

Same with WiiU, really, it should see a decent upswing but I see the sales floundering after a while just as they did after MK8, since after Smash... there's nothing big left except Zelda/Xeno a long ways away. Maybe they'll be able to maintain momentum in 2015 with their supposed game per month schedule, maybe enough to keep themselves neck and neck with the PS4 for a while. But the WiiU will no doubt start getting phased out... or not. If they can bake the die-shrunk cores into their next hardware, their developments on the WiiU will hardly be wasted ones (or they can just use the, by then, next generation of K1 or whatever else is out, and just adapt their previous code for easy compatability as they'd still be on RISC). Let all their Garage devs get to work on the WiiU/HD and get them ready for the next gen.

Kresnik said:

A baseline should hold at least, because they've got long-term desirable software, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest that this isn't just going to be a nice spike to hardware (like an exaggerated version of what Vita had in early 2013) and then a fall back down to whatever levels it should be.  A mid-tier port and an untested IP aren't really going to change that.

This is what we'll have to wait and see.

STEAM could do well given the pedigree and the recent, strong success of Fire Emblem. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a Fire Emblem that utilizes the n3DS hardware for FEET!



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vivster said:

In that case it doesn't matter how big the actual fanbase is if they just make them buy multiple things :)

This touches on something that's been bothering me a lot lately. There are two ways for a company to grow its profits: attract new customers, or make more money off existing customers.

The most successful consoles (in terms of install base, by nature of attracting a larger market) targeted the former strategy. The NES, PS1, PS2, Wii, DS, they all aimed to broaden their target market. The latter strategy could be related to DLC and paid services like Xbox Live. Granted, at first Xbox Live was far superior to online services on other consoles, so it did attract a larger userbase thanks to that. But over time, as Sony caught up with Microsoft in that regard, Xbox Live Gold shifted from a reason to own the console to another expense of owning it.

This latter strategy is not necessarily a bad thing. For instance, one reason the Wii is treated so dismissively in certain circles is because Nintendo didn't target enough money from each owner. Gamers want to play games, they want to buy more games. Having fewer games you want to buy is not a selling point for a console. Every time someone says they "won't buy a console for one game" they are suggesting that the console in question would be more appealing to them if there were more opportunities for them to spend money on it.

But now it feels like every company in the industry is just trying to get more money from their existing customers, and is not trying to expand their target market, save for the "aim for the COD crowd" mentality that has taken hold of a lot of publishers. More series being annualized, more DLC for finished games, more spin-offs and merchandise.

As a Nintendo customer, this is frustrating for me. Nintendo has been in the red for a couple of years, and I can plainly see that their strategy to get back in black is to make more money from me (and other existing Nintendo customers like me). New 3DS, themes & face plates, Amiibo, Mario Kart DLC, even Hyrule Warriors. This isn't always bad -- Mario Kart 8 DLC is a lot of content for a low price, there's nothing wrong with that at all. But Nintendo can only make so much profit from me; I can't buy everything they make, nor would I want to if I could. I really hope the New 3DS attracts some new 3DS owners, and isn't just a reason for current 3DS owners to spend more money on hardware. Because so far, it being bundled with Monster Hunter in Japan and the only announced exclusive being Xenoblade has me doubtful that this product will appeal to many gamers who weren't already interested enough in the 3DS to have bought one.



guys people want the new bundles so wii u sales will go down
then shoot up pass 15k when they come with captain toad



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the_dengle said:

 I really hope the New 3DS attracts some new 3DS owners, and isn't just a reason for current 3DS owners to spend more money on hardware. Because so far, it being bundled with Monster Hunter in Japan and the only announced exclusive being Xenoblade has me doubtful that this product will appeal to many gamers who weren't already interested enough in the 3DS to have bought one.


Refreshes tend to dip into a new market pretty normally as many buyers won't adopt the first hardware itteration for various (often times sound) reasons (like I won't buy a X1 or PS4 OG because I hate bricks), and at least if Japan is anything to go by there are still plenty of new buyers of the console that aren't double-dippers. Nintendo is also known for revisions and 4G is actually a great way to tap into newer markets as people can use it as a gateway with a popular brand. Same with the Smash n3DS LL and the new Pokemon. This year, at least westward in NA/EU, the 3DS has been basically without sellers except for a few chance moments like Smash, Default, and TL, so nothing is spurring on new markets here to go out and buy the system.

Hardware will only go so far on its own out of its original itteration, every console ever is an example of this. The 2DS, while not very relevant, is still 2.5 million or so sold consoles that wouldn't have otherwise sold because they are targetting a different group and offering something different. The n3DS offers the idea of a better user experience which is good for older generation owners as well as a good marketting ploy for would-be owners.



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Mnementh said:
estebxx said:
Kresnik said:
estebxx said:

are you talking about MH3G for PS3? because to my knowledge it wasnt localized sadly, also glad to know that someone else also wants it on a proper console, and yeah lets hope 4G gets the same treatment some time in the future (and this time please localize it Capcom!).


He's talking about Tri Ultimate for WiiU.


Ah ok, thats good as well, i just got confused since i was talking about sony, but a Wii U port is great as well, although what i really want is an MH thats made for consoles and that takes advantage of the hardware.

Taking advantage of power will not happen, the sales on home console are too low for that to justify the investment. I assume also on 3DS it isn't utilizing the full power, graphically Monster Hunter isn't revolutionary, I do like the gameplay.

Thats sad and more than likely the thruth however... i cant stop thinking in a hypothetical scenario, how great MH would be if it used the whole power of a Wii U or a PS4.

On regards to your other comment (that i didnt quote). yeah i got confused since there was a MH PS3 game and i didnt knew it was ported and localized to the Wii U, (i thought the Wii U game was just another game).



RolStoppable said:

Good, another Nintendo fan that I can definitely put into the camp of people who understand that not every game being specifically targeted at them is actually beneficial in the long run. Although you always clearly displayed above average intelligence, so this revelation doesn't really feel special.


Burn-out is a real thing.

Which is why I am glad we have something like Toad and Splatoon. Fuck, I don't even know who/what Splatoon is targetting. Needs more space marines if its actually trying to target "mature" seven year olds. (Oh and Bayo2, which I totally forgot for some reason.)



Looks like the N3DS and N3DSLL weren't enough to stop the YoY decline.



Poor WiiU those numbers are horrible



AshKetchum1992 said:
Poor WiiU those numbers are horrible


All sales numbers are horrible,  except 3DS.