Kresnik said:
Vita had momentum in early 2013 after the price cut, which was frittered away by the middle months of the year and then was built up again after the slim release. They carried that on with at least some compelling software in Q1 and a particularly strong March and at least a couple of desirable games a month. Momentum has been lost given that we're literally just waiting for November with Dengeki Bunko and Phantasy Star. Does 3DS have a particularly strong Q1/Q2 to keep any of this momentum they've built up, or will they have to do it again from scratch? |
The Vita thing was a lot of mismanagment and, as I alluded, the system just doesn't have killer apps to maintain "hype" momentum even during doldrums and middle-ware release schedules. The price cuts don't usually, I feel, amount to much momentum long term. They are just pent up fringe-sales that give a nice, temporary boost. Refreshes are the bigger deal or the come-off from a killer release schedule that got things moving. They squandered that momentum off the Slim with... well being Sony. They killed the unit and any of its momentum when they said they wouldn't be supporting it.
As for the 3DS, its hard to say. That's why I left my analysis as "pending" because I don't know when Xeno, STEAM, or a number of other titles that have been announced, will launch. Moreover, the 3DS is really wierd with announcing games a handful of months ahead of release rather than years+. Titles will pop in out of nowhere. Right now, Q1 looks weak but not nearly as bad as Q1 2014. It will be an interesting thing to see if this massive holiday momentum atop of the strength of the new hardware, will be used or squandered. I don't think Nintendo will willingly squander this because this is their "hold" till 2016's new hardware (likely). The WiiU pipelines have already been fed at this point, too.
Same with WiiU, really, it should see a decent upswing but I see the sales floundering after a while just as they did after MK8, since after Smash... there's nothing big left except Zelda/Xeno a long ways away. Maybe they'll be able to maintain momentum in 2015 with their supposed game per month schedule, maybe enough to keep themselves neck and neck with the PS4 for a while. But the WiiU will no doubt start getting phased out... or not. If they can bake the die-shrunk cores into their next hardware, their developments on the WiiU will hardly be wasted ones (or they can just use the, by then, next generation of K1 or whatever else is out, and just adapt their previous code for easy compatability as they'd still be on RISC). Let all their Garage devs get to work on the WiiU/HD and get them ready for the next gen.
Kresnik said:
A baseline should hold at least, because they've got long-term desirable software, but I'm not seeing anything to suggest that this isn't just going to be a nice spike to hardware (like an exaggerated version of what Vita had in early 2013) and then a fall back down to whatever levels it should be. A mid-tier port and an untested IP aren't really going to change that. |
This is what we'll have to wait and see.
STEAM could do well given the pedigree and the recent, strong success of Fire Emblem. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a Fire Emblem that utilizes the n3DS hardware for FEET!