By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Looking forward. PS4 vs XB1 vs WiiU

Intrinsic on 18 October 2014

Goint to cover certian aspects of all the platforms and what they could/would do going forward. Lets discuss these aspects and which of them are most likely to happen or would be most beneficial.

STRATEGY XB1 PS4 WiiU
Price Drop

This is probably the most obvious approach for MS. and one that they could just as easily afford. More so than anyone else in the race. If MS wanted to, they could drop to $299 as early as May 2015 and still be able to pack in two games and a3 months  free XBL.

 Sony could also drop the price of the PS4 if they really needed to. But sony is in a position where the profits they make from simply selling PS4 hardware is too good pas up. The PS4 also has shown that it could still outsell the XB1 even if its more expensive. Sony would no doubt drop the price eventually, but I don't see this happenning before holiday season 2015 if at all in 2015. Its more likely to happen around may/june 2016.  Nintendo needs to drop the price of the wiiU. And fast. I am actualy surprised they haven't done so already. Dropping its price to $199 may just be the shot in the arm the console needs. However i fear they will wait for one of the other platforms to first drop to $299 then pull of a reactive price drop of their own.  both bad decisions. Its hard to fathom what they are waiting for to drop the price.
Upgrade programme/ subscriptions This is somthing else only MS may be able to do. Though it could be an impossible sell to their share holders. MS can pretty much win this gen overnight if they offered a new XB1 to every 360 owner if they brought in their 360 and dropped off $150. Such a deal would be too much to pass up. However MS would be taking a minimum $200 hit on every console swapped. But everyone that owns a 360 will be lining up to make that swap.  Finacial disaster? Maybe. But that $200 hit can be made back from every new user in less than 18 months. Sony can't do this. However, if Ms does it sony would have to find a way to match it even if it means making those that made that swap pay more for PS+ or something along those lines. Sony could also partner with certain companies to make it possible too. Its a good thing for sony that this has very little chance of happenning. Nope. Not in a million years. Nintendo would probably beat you to death with a toothbrush if you even as much as suggested this to them.
Hardare redesign There no doubt is a hardware redesign just around the corner for the XB1. I expect we see it as early as next year and right around the time that the all encompassing windows 10 comes out. I expect a smaller console, bigger HDD and cheaper price. This could spur some interest and help boost sales. It worked for the PS3 so it could for MS. Not expecting to see a redesigned PS4 till 2017 . Especially when you consider that a redesign from MS would probably only bring their console to around the size of the PS4. There is no reason for sony to do this just yet. I expect we just see SKus with bigger HDDs and different colors. A Red and/or Blue official PS4 next year joining the black and white SKUs. Sony has got a taste of the new colored SKU sales boost coolaid. They will be coming back for more. I am drawing a blank here. What or how can you do anythig to the wiiU. Have a much cheaper SKU without the wiiU screen controller? Not gonna happen. Different colors? They have already tried that. Make it smaller? No need. 
Bail Out Call it a four year cycle and start the next one in fall 2017. They have done this before and they could do it again. Thoug this time it could be a lot harder for MS cause I fear their board would not be as supportive. I don't think third party publishers would be too happy either. But there is no better way to hit the reset button. They would in the very least try and come out a year before the next PS console though. And X86 in their next box means guaranteed BC too (the the ESRAM could be problematic). MS would also have to do more work into building a new console than sony as I believe tehy will never make the same mistake they made this gen again. Sony is going to want to milk this generation as much as they can. Its the first time since the PS2 that they have a console that is profitable on seling hardware this early into a generation. They are dominating the market right now and things could only get better. They would have an eye on it though. If there is was one advantage  in going with X86 architecture is that it making a new console probably has never been easier. especially for sony. This is because the PS4 is a perfectly designed architecture for a game console, so sony doesn't really have to go too far back into the drawing board. Just improve everything as much as possible. And we will also have a PS5 that is fully compatible with the PS4. 8 core CPU clocked at 4ghz? done. 125 CU GPU clocked at 1Ghz? No problem. 16GB GDDR5 (or its future iteation) with 1.5TB of memory bandwidth? Yup. As I said, just build on everything in there already. Would probably benefit most from a bail out. But i doubt they are in a position to do that. If nintendo could get a new console out as early as next year. even if said console is exactly as powerful as a PS4/XB1 and come in at a lower price, full BC and an upgrade plan for everyone that bought a wiiU and NOT CALL IT a WIIanything. I think they are the least likely to be affected by such a decision and stand the most to gain. All they have to answer to are their 7M fans that has already picked up a wiiU. Third parties aren't supporting them now but if they made an x86 console too they could very well have third party support by default. And if they don't they should lobby for it. Dare I say I feel nintendo needs something like this more than anyone else. But i fear their window is next year... anything later than that and they are locked into this generation till whenever MS/Sony releases their new console.

so what do you guys think? 



Around the Network
mii-gamer on 18 October 2014

I don't think a New Ninty console next year with an x86 archi thingy is a good idea.

1. 3rd party support is not guaranteed
2. They will be playing catch-up with all the momentum in favor of the competition
3. They will be screwing over their loyal fanbase

They have to ride out the storm while attempting to build a stronger foundation for their next endeavor. i.e Build up their online, new ip's etc

Sony is in a good position with the ps4, they just need to keep up the good work

Microsoft should build up their first party strength to better compete against the ps4. A hardware design could do wonders



Intrinsic on 18 October 2014
kowenicki said:
Good summary. Valid observations you have there I think.

But it does make me laugh when people act as though MS have to get shareholder permission to do something. Sure, they have shareholders, just like Sony and Ninty (though Ninty is slightly different). Fully listed companies dont ask shareholders for permsission or even opinion when they make business decisions.

Well true, companies don't have to take permission from their share holders per say, but te board of directors is made up of the most prominent share holders and they usually speak for the rest of them. Its no secret that the Xbox brand is not very popular in the house of Microssoft right now. Proposing anything that could mean biting a $200M bullet won't be very well supported. $200M is what MS will lose if they lost $200 on every XB1 sold based on a swap system for every 1M swaps.

Funny enough, if you think about it... $200M isn't that bad if it would mean that that you could build your install base quickly. I eman think about it, spend $1B and gurantee that you increase your user base by 5M in record time or spend $1B on marketing and have zero effect on your user base.



daredevil.shark on 18 October 2014

For the sake of debate I want to say, early bail out is never a valid option. It will kill the system. Early bail out means sega saturn / dreamcast scenario again.



vivster on 18 October 2014
kowenicki said:
Good summary. Valid observations you have there I think.

But it does make me laugh when people act as though MS have to get shareholder permission to do something. Sure, they have shareholders, just like Sony and Ninty (though Ninty is slightly different). Fully listed companies dont ask shareholders for permsission or even opinion when they make business decisions.

Will they at least consider their feelings?



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Around the Network
shogunknight on 18 October 2014

This is a really good analysis, and pretty much true based on the three console makers. Depending on the outcome of this holiday, MS may begin some sort of restructuring (price and probably even hardware) as soon as next year (thats if PS4 wins US and UK holiday among others). I dont think nintendo would cut its WiiU cycle short until they release most of their 1st party titles



platformmaster918 on 18 October 2014

I disagree on the first 3. MS has lots of money but they spend it and look at their earnings on a product by product basis like any other company. They look at how much they've put into Xbox vs how much they've gotten out. Would they really be willing to cut price or have an expensive buy in program losing further money (at least initially)? I think Sony is just as likely to do either of those things and they will react to a price cut by MS if it happens. Though it may be delayed as I think PS4 will still win sales even with one. If MS cuts in May then I think Sony would cut in September at the latest which means in time for most of the sales of the year. MS can obviously redesign earlier but that's only because their console has so much wasted space right now and I'm not sure if it would open it up for a pricecut anymore than right now.




Get Your Portable ID!Lord of Ratchet and Clank

Duke of Playstation Plus

Warden of Platformers

man-bear-pig on 18 October 2014

Nice thread. Never thought about the whole trade in idea, which is genius. Hope someone from M$ is reading this!



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

teigaga on 18 October 2014

In regard to the X1 bailout, I think 3rd parties will love it. If we're already seeing a difference between PC and PS4 games in terms of visuals, just imagine what it will be in 2017. Third parties will repeat what they done this gen and deliver the Xbox10 the same games as the PS4 but at a higher graphical performance. The cost to them will be minimal but it will probably boost overall software sales as new hardware tends to do that and the X1 will still be there for them to support too.

For the Wii U however I think your idealised bailout is far too soon. If they offered a new console next year, they would loose a ton of goodwill from consumers, especially core ninty fans. Who would rush out to buy a new system if they abandoned their previous one after 2 years? What 3rd parties would in a hurry to support said system? They'd also arrive just as the PS4 and X1 move into their stride, making the new console irrelevant in the process. They need to wait for X1 and PS4 to pass their peaks (late 2016 at the earliest). This also leaves room for them to develop hardware which can demonstrate a notable leap over the previous gen (think dreamcast vs Xbox) and also develop a strong portfolio of launch year games.



Intrinsic on 18 October 2014
platformmaster918 said:
I disagree on the first 3. MS has lots of money but they spend it and look at their earnings on a product by product basis like any other company. They look at how much they've put into Xbox vs how much they've gotten out. Would they really be willing to cut price or have an expensive buy in program losing further money (at least initially)? I think Sony is just as likely to do either of those things and they will react to a price cut by MS if it happens. Though it may be delayed as I think PS4 will still win sales even with one. If MS cuts in May then I think Sony would cut in September at the latest which means in time for most of the sales of the year. MS can obviously redesign earlier but that's only because their console has so much wasted space right now and I'm not sure if it would open it up for a pricecut anymore than right now.

It depends on how you wanna look at it. A buy in/trade in system is not as bad is it looks if these consoles are already making a profit on hardware as it stands. And Not only can MS afford it, they can do that for aabout 10M units then stop the programme. That would cost them about $2B. They can make that money from those same 10M new gamers in under a year if they do it all right. Its a lot to ask though, but its actually a really great way to boost your user base. 

And you are right on the money with the redesign for the XB1. There is a lot of wasted space in there. I thiknk a redesigned XB1 coupled with a price drop to $300 will happen next year. Not cause redesigning the console will save them anything... more for the great press.

 

daredevil.shark said:
For the sake of debate I want to say, early bail out is never a valid option. It will kill the system. Early bail out means sega saturn / dreamcast scenario again.

An early bail out worked wonders for the original xbox leading into the 360. Well at least a 4 year bail out is the kinda early i was referring to when talking baout XB1. No later than next year is what I have in mind when referring to the wiiU. If MS bails out in 2017 and releases a console that is way more powerful than the XB1 and fully BC, but yet continues supporting the XB1 for at east another 3 years... the transition will be practically painless. And being an x86 based console this would actually be really easy to do. The XB2 could just play XB1 games at 4k@60fps and get the odd XB2 dedicated game every once in a while. If sony doesn't respong in kind by the time sony comes around to it the XB2 could have an install base of over 10M.