What exactly has changed? The first bayonetta received very good reviews too and didn't exactly set the world on fire until it hit the bargain bin, and if its sales so far in Japan is any indication whatsoever then it is going to have to over perform dramatically in the West to make up for those numbers.

There's no way in hell (or heaven) it'll make its budget back.

It'll probably sell better than it initially appeared; and miles better than Wonderful 101.

I'd be much more willing to change my outlook if I saw a notable marketing campaign for Bayo 2 than seeing high reviews. Far as I've seen advertising has a much more significant effect on overall sales than any reviews can (on average). The only hope Bayo 2 could have is some amazing word of mouth but only being on WiiU limits how much benefit you can get from that.

That's too high of a hurdle to be not a flop. I don't see it getting close to 1 million so by your definition it will flop IMO. But I would say for B2 on a Nintendo console 500k is more the flop/not flop target. And I think 500k is likely. So by my definition I don't think B2 will flop, and I never did. What I always did think, and still do, is that Bayonetta is not a good fit with Nintendo and it won't thrive there, nor will it do anything for the Wii U.

My definition of flop is not making back the money invested in a product. And since we know Beo2 cost twice as much to develope than Beo1 it is a guaranteed flop considering sega didn't want to develope it after the first one. It's really just another L for platinum and Nintendo.

Didn't expect it not to have a high metascore, so Idk why I should change my mind now.

1m is a nice number, but even last gen we saw it not being enough for many games (especially exclusives!). Bayonetta 2 isn't a game that's ultra cheap to produce so that selling 100k in Japan and not releasing anywhere else would be enough. Including the original Bayonetta only increases the dev costs.
I don't see how any money could be made out of this project.

I don't believe it will surpass the figures made by the original game. I don't believe either it will make enough to cover the budget. Critically acclaim? Why not? Flop? Most likely.

I just tried the demo and have to say it is a really fun and good looking game. I am unfortunately strapped for time and cash so I am going to wait to get it. My next purchase will be Smash. I hope it does well but honestly I will be surprised if it does well above 500K.

It wont sell a million so yeah, it will flop. First game had great reviews as well and only managed mediocre sales on consoles with much larger audiences and fanbases more interested in this type of game.

My guess is that in two years bayonetta 2 will be in the 500-700k range.

What has changed is a far more resourceful publisher that can continuously promote the game.

Additionally, this is also platform with much fewer options for the userbase. Bayonetta had to compete against the 360 and PS3 vast, impressive library. That's why it ultimately became forgotten.