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Forums - Politics Discussion - China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy

freedquaker said:
MDMAlliance said:

There's also the fact that China is cheating by artificially keeping their currency low.  That will eventually come back and bite them in their butts.


I am not exactly sure about their practices but additionally, one needs to look into the share of consumption in the economy. We don't typically do this, as the shares usually do not change as much between countries (or at least stable over time) but Chinese economy is an ANOMALY. What do I mean by that?....

Now, the well being of people is not measured in income but CONSUMPTION, and for example, if you are investing most of your income, and there is hardly anything left to consume, then you may LOOK wealthy but you are actually MISERABLE. In US, the share of consumption is 70% whereas it is measly 35% in China. This means, whatever number you see in Chinese GDP/cap PPP, the Chinese actually end up spending only 35% of it.

Let me give you an example....

GDP-PPP(2013), from IMF

US : $ 53.001

Consumption share : $37100

China : $ $11.868

Consumption share : $4.154

 

So the difference is much larger than it appears...


I actually have a class where we had to discuss this topic, and this was one of the things I was going to bring up, but the professor thought I was talking too long already, as I was talking about the need for a transitioning labor force as China would need to do to increase their production while not having to spend larger amounts of money for operation as the pressure to create a more fair wage for the people working in the factories.



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As many said, China's GDP is still behind the USA. It will still takes decades before it surpasses USA but this will definitely happens. My estimate is sometime around 2040.



Why did this happen? simple answer

"Fuck our children. Fuck our countries future. fuck everything but my wallet."

Because "I want to get even richer I see no reason why I would earn 100k a month I want 1m a month because I am the boss of an important company" something like this happens.

If we would pay our employees good money and would stop overpaying managers and bosses etc we would not need to get all our stuff "made in china". But its about short term profit all the time. The people in charge dont care if all of us normal people are unemployed in 10 years.

We can make so much stuff extremely cheap but we charge way to much (because it goes to people that are completely irrelevant and their positions should either not exist at all or they get paid way to much)

I can buy a 3m HDMI cable for 15€ at our local electronics store. Or I can buy 10m for 3€ from someone that imported chinese cables (probably made in the same factory as the 15€ cables). that person adds 10% to the price as his profit and then sells it on Amazon marketplace and does not even charge for shipping.

Tbh serves us right. It is NOT the consumers fault for wanting to get things as cheap as possible its the companies fault for having arbitrary pricing so their higher-ups can do this:




MDMAlliance said:
freedquaker said:
MDMAlliance said:

There's also the fact that China is cheating by artificially keeping their currency low.  That will eventually come back and bite them in their butts.


I am not exactly sure about their practices but additionally, one needs to look into the share of consumption in the economy. We don't typically do this, as the shares usually do not change as much between countries (or at least stable over time) but Chinese economy is an ANOMALY. What do I mean by that?....

Now, the well being of people is not measured in income but CONSUMPTION, and for example, if you are investing most of your income, and there is hardly anything left to consume, then you may LOOK wealthy but you are actually MISERABLE. In US, the share of consumption is 70% whereas it is measly 35% in China. This means, whatever number you see in Chinese GDP/cap PPP, the Chinese actually end up spending only 35% of it.

Let me give you an example....

GDP-PPP(2013), from IMF

US : $ 53.001

Consumption share : $37100

China : $ $11.868

Consumption share : $4.154

 

So the difference is much larger than it appears...


I actually have a class where we had to discuss this topic, and this was one of the things I was going to bring up, but the professor thought I was talking too long already, as I was talking about the need for a transitioning labor force as China would need to do to increase their production while not having to spend larger amounts of money for operation as the pressure to create a more fair wage for the people working in the factories.


A small correction,

I was referring to the GDP/cap PPP... I forgot to add the "/cap" part. Anyways...As you said, the main reason for rapid increase in Chinese GDP is sort of the artificial state incentives for investment, industrial production and exports... Well, this does not happen in the natural way, thus leading to an unparalleled imbalance between investment and consumption.

Although high investment is a good thing for the FUTURE of the country (and the prospective income), this unbalanced and rapid growth leads to major problems such as...

a) Extreme income inequality, especially benefitting those who take those initiatives but leave others with little return

b) High inflation, putting even more pressure on the ones who are on the wrong side of the equation

c) Minimal or negative returns to marginal investment, as returns to investment diminishes rapidly and too much investment goes to waste, not only as lost income but also unreaped benefits (consumption) and depleted resources.

d) Permanently distorted labor and economic market (due to rapidly increasing wages, radically changing employment structure, rapid urbanization etc)...

....



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

It should also be pointed out that, largely, you can ignore the Chinese gov't data. It's about as accurate as the Soviet's was, back when their economy was doing gangbusters.

For instance, food prices are going up in double digits, real estate is in a bubble, transport and travel costs are going up. The purchasing power of any given remnimbi is falling fast, faster than the dollar. Now, are people making more each year the surpass this chronic inflation? According to the Government, yes. But they claim inflation is just 2-3%.

The fact that the typical Chinese saver is now trying to get their money out of China says that even their population ain't buying it.

Incidentally, USA gov't data is bullshit too.



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bucky1965 said:
Shadow1980 said:

It's worth pointing out that this is in large part due to China's population, which is roughly four times that of the United States. Population can skew total GDP in a more populous nation's favor (e.g., Nigeria's GPD is larger than Norway's, but only because its population is about 35 times larger). In terms of raw 2013 GDP numbers from the IMF, the U.S.'s GDP was $16.77 trillion while China's was $9.47 trillion. But the population difference makes China's per capita GDP far lower than that of the U.S. America's per capita GDP is about $53,000 while China's is a mere $7000. Even in PPP terms, which is the focus of the article, China's per capita GDP is less than a quarter that of the U.S.

All other things being equal, if China had the same population as the U.S., their GDP would be about a quarter of what it is and they'd end up dropping to 7th place in raw GDP numbers, right in between the UK and Brazil. Conversely, if their per capita GDP were the same as the U.S., their total GDP would be four times that of the U.S.; if every other country's GDP remained the same, that would result in China generating half of the global GDP. China's population is stabilizing, but assuming they're able to keep growing their economy it would have to be through increasing the per capita GDP. But there are likely some serious obstacles to indefinite economic growth, not just for China but any nation, including resources needed to provide sufficient energy, good jobs, and a good standard of living for everyone, but in China's case especially authoritarian regimes almost never have truly advanced economies, certain extremely oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE being exceptions as said resource generates the vast majority of their GDP (if the rest of the world could and did ditch oil entirely tomorrow, it would cripple the economies of OPEC nations). It's probably no coincidence that OECD nations and nations listed as "advanced economies" by the IMF (both groups with significant membership overlap) are all multiparty electoral democracies. Before its dissolution the Soviet Union had the second-largest economy in the world in terms of total GDP, but its per capita GDP was something like a third that of the U.S. Assuming they have the resources needed and having an authoritarian single-party government doesn't prove to be an obstacle (or they democratize), then it's possible that China can keep narrowing the per capita GDP, but I think a good argument can be made that their current growth is unsustainable given current conditions. I don't think anyone can realistically expect any nation to indefinitely experience double-digit GDP growth every year. There are always limits to growth.

So, while China's GDP is large, it's not because they are as well-off as America economically. It's because there's over 1.3 billion people in China. In essentially every way that counts the U.S. is better off. The UN's Human Development Index ranks the U.S. at #5 while China is only at #91. 27% of Chinese people are living on less than $2 per day according to the World Bank, while in the U.S. it's a negligible amount. According to the World Bank the market capitalization of listed companies in the U.S. is five times larger. Even in terms that aren't purely economic, the U.S. is better off. Americans live longer and healthier. China is increasingly more polluted, with more deaths per capita from air pollution (Because who cares about clean air when you have an economy to grow? I doubt the CPC does.). China is a single-party authoritarian state, while the U.S. is a multi-party democracy; the Freedom House report gives America top ratings for political and civil rights, while China has consistently received very poor ratings. According to Corruption Perceptions Index, America's government ranks 19th least corrupt among 177 nations, while China only ranks #80. It's quite clear that the U.S. simply has a better overall economy, standard of living, and quality of life than China. China has a long way to go before they join the ranks of developed nations like the U.S., Japan, and the member states of the EU.


Don't believe everything you read.

LMAO!!!

What an epic rebutal to his points xD



atma998 said:
As many said, China's GDP is still behind the USA. It will still takes decades before it surpasses USA but this will definitely happens. My estimate is sometime around 2040.


Actually at current growth rate it will surpass the US within the next decade and will be more than double the US by 2030-2040.



I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.



nanarchy said:
atma998 said:
As many said, China's GDP is still behind the USA. It will still takes decades before it surpasses USA but this will definitely happens. My estimate is sometime around 2040.


Actually at current growth rate it will surpass the US within the next decade and will be more than double the US by 2030-2040.


Not at all.

 

Current USA GDP is at 16.77 trillion vs. 9.47 trillion for China.

Lets say China's GDP growth is 6% per year in average while USA one is 3% than it means that it will takes until 2033 before China surpasses USA.

That said I don't think China will be able to maintain a 6% GDP growth for 20 years in a row as the growth tend to decrease as China is getting richer.



curl-6 said:
I may be a bigot for saying this, but the thought of China as the world's superpower frightens me.

Im just going to ask why??

If I actually responded to you I would probably piss off a majority of the users here =P