They will have the same games. Just like the iPhone/iPad/iPod Touch have the same apps. That's the whole point of the idea. Consumer just chooses which form factor(s) suit their lifestyle. 

The honest truth is the "home variant" likely isn't going to sell that much ... if Fusion sells say 80 million LTD, the home version probably will account for 20 million of that ... but it's just gravy for Nintendo. They longer have to be tied to a sinking console if its not doing well, instead whatever it sells, it's just a bonus for them. 

Besides a "Nintendo PS4" would basically just be a Wii U-2 dead end. No one is going to buy that. If Nintendo is making another traditional console IMO it has to compete with the PS5 (five, not four). And I don't think Nintendo has any intention of going there. 

Fusion home variant can be a nice, very low cost "console", same way VitaTV is dirt cheap. It'll be a very cheap way for a person to get into the Nintendo ecosystem (sub $200 IMO). Honestly is Nintendo even interested in making games with graphics better than the Wii U in 1080P with some prettier shader/lighting effects? Because home Fusion device should be able to deliver that.  

The handheld variant will probably cost a bit more (again same as Vita + Vita TV) ... handheld has the cost of the LCD/touch panel, which is huge, the home variant has no screen, even if it has 2-3x the CPU/GPU cores, chips are actually not that expensive. I think it'll be something like $219.99 for the portable version and $179.99 for the home version. 

I agree with your basis, but I think the home variant could be a bit stronger than what you suggest - definitely not PS5 level, but PS4 pretty easily - and still very affordable.  Games on the handheld-to-games on the console will be very similar to playing a game on two different level PCs:  Handheld = Tomb Raider at "minimal settings"; console = Tomb Raider at "ultra settings" with tressfx.

3DS will sell 20+ million in both North America and Europe individually.

That's more than the GameCube in both of those territories WW.

They still have some juice there.

Coming up with gimmicks to sell hardware is not easy. You don't just snap your finger, a lot of it boils down to timing, having some fortune in finding the right idea, and really ... a lot of luck. Nintendo tried with glasses-free 3D and a tablet controller to find the next fads and failed. I guess vitality sensor never even made it out of their R&D because it simply doesn't work on large portions of the population. 

MS bailed out on Kinect too. I think in general people are getting tired of controller gimmicks ... after last gen of plastic guitars, balance boards, Wiimotes, steering wheels, cameras, plastic zappers, etc. etc. people are burnt out on accessorie garbage all over their living room.

The barrier of gaming has been broken down by the multitouch touch screen on tablets/phones now ... now anyone can play if they want to. That's what the DS Touch Generations and Wii Sports/Fit crazes evolved into. Apple won that battle. So that's not even a problem anymore either. Casuals are well served now and so are hardcore players.

I'm not doubting the 3DS success this generation. I'm doubting the market success for dedicated handheld games next generation. Dedicated gaming is becoming niche and the smart device gaming industry has potential to evolve into something bigger. Of course that's speculation, but its something to worry about.

And you're right that finding the next big thing (or gimmick as you see it) is difficult. But the reality is Nintendo consoles just don't sell without third party support or a interesting new device or game series.

I don't think the Fusion can sell 80 million systems if the Smart device gaming gets bigger and evolves into a fiercer competition.

Well you know what? Tough sh*t for Nintendo then. This is the industry they're in. No one said they're entitled to some easy road to success. Smart devices are here and aren't going anywhere. 

Putting the best of what they have into one software ecosystem is making their best case to the consumer is probably their best play now. 

Hardware gimmicks are done because in part people can see when you're just throwing gimmicks at them for the sake of having a gimmick. Touch screen gaming and motion gaming had a logical purpose people could understand ... breaking down the barrier for novice/lapsed gamers. But that barrier now is broken down and being (over) served by smart devices. So there's no need for Nintendo there. Anything else is likely them just forcing a gimmick, which people will see right through. 

PS4 level directly is probably a bit much. I think the handheld variant can be about 300 GFLOPS, and the home variant 650-900 GFLOPS ... that's a decent enough gap for the home games to run at full screen 1080P while ensuring that the handheld and home versions are a mostly seamless experience. 

You don't want to have a situation where the handheld version requires large resources to down port, you want devs to be able to make one version and easily scale them up and down. 

It may just be a better play for Nintendo to make the home variant as cheap as fu*k too ... a lot of people don't want to pay $300+ for a Nintendo console, but offer them something that can scale down in cost quickly to $149.99 lets say, has decent graphics, and tons of Nintendo games (not just new ones, but Nintendo needs to better leverage their back catalog of games too), and I think more people may be inclined to jump in. 

Well one being a phone for example is a pretty huge difference. Besides the different SKUs being different isn't bad really ... it gives incentive for a person to buy both if they have a large investment in the ecosystem already, a person who normally may only buy a Nintendo handheld may say "well gee, it would be nice to play some of these games on TV at home, maybe I'll pick up the Nintendo Fusion Home version too, it's pretty cheap". 

No they can't compete with PS5 (not even sure there will be an XB2) for raw power, but I don't think Nintendo really gives a crap about that anymore. For Nintendo's style, even Wii U level of power suits them just fine, and a Fusion home device honestly could be considerably more powerful than that if they really wanted it to be. I think it could be in the range of 800-900 GFLOPS with 3-4 GB of RAM (for games) and a more modern DX11 style graphical effects. That will result in graphics on screen for Nintendo games that I think most people will be quite happy with, especially if the price point is sub-$200. 

They need to leverage their Virtual Console back catalog better though and this system should also be able to rework Wii U titles so it has a lot of software to play from day 1. 

Two SKUs isn't a benefit on a company if both SKUs are sluggish. Imagine Wii U/3DS were one product line ... in that case, they would be on pace to sell 100 million units between them for one generation (and games like Mario 3D World would have access to a larger userbase) ... but seperately they weaken Nintendo's case that this was a successful gen for them. 

Could work, but if Nintendo goes that route then they'd need to launch the unit(s) sooner than later - probably fall of 2016.  That will likely give them a two year head start over the competition, but it'll really suck for people who just bought a WiiU in 2015.

Also, they better hope that 3rd parties are keen on the idea of having their games follow this handheld/TV dynamic because they won't be getting any of the games that PS5/XB2 will be.

 there wont be any reason to buy the console apart from the graphical upgrade and more comfortable controls...