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Forums - Sales Discussion - I've a good way to estimate digital sales on consoles!

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 



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I dunno. We could try to figure out a trend but games that are only available digitally would probably not follow that ratings to sales ratio.



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

Quite a few people have suggested this over the years so you're not alone. However, basing a theory entirely on one game's sales/rating is just wrong. Now, if we had sales and ratings of like 50 games, then sure, that'd be somewhat reliable.



I think that would be too inconsistent and it would rely on too many assumptions for it to be accurate



                  

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Jizz_Beard_thePirate said:
I think that would be too inconsistent and it would rely on too many assumptions for it to be accurate


:( 

Do we know any sales for definite of digital PSN games? Lets make a list of 10 of them. 



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Kerotan said:

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 

@bolded is the reason why this is NOT a good way to estimate digital sales. 



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

benji232 said:
Kerotan said:

Came across this ages ago but only signed up recently so never got to say it. 

You can look that numbers up but a few months back Minecraft announced how many digital copies they'd sold on the PS3 store. It sounded like a lot so I went onto the site and checked the number of ratings it had. It worked out that for every 50 people that bought it (roughly) 1 of them rated it. 

This is only 1 game but if you matched up officail numbers for known games and checked their ratings I'm sure we could find a god average. 

The likes of infamous second son have 10k ratings on the store so would it make sense if that game had 500k downloads? Anyway this IMO is our best way to estimate digital sales for a game. 

Destiny PS4 has around 6k ratings I think so that prob has a good 300k digital copies sold. 

@bolded is the reason why this is NOT a good way to estimate digital sales. 


what are the official download numbers for second son? enlighten us please. 



Its an interesting proposition, I encourage you to do more work around this and try to find an ecvation - if at all possible



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

This about Watch Dogs (from Gaf): http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=852745

PS4XB1 digital share of is 10%, with the XB1 being a bit more than 10% and the PS4 a bit less than 10%.
The digital share for 360PS3 is only 3 to 5%.

 

Nintendo in 2012 report:   http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/121025/03.html

Without any advertisements in the mass media, the world average ratio of digital download sales of packaged software as of the end of September varied from slightly more than 3% to slightly over 10% of the total sales,



Is there any site that has estimated digital sales for PSN/XBLA? I know Gamasutra sometime has reports done for XBLA, but that's all I've seen.

I'd love to know the sales figures for Mega Man 9/10, Journey, Shovel Knight, SOTN, etc...