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Can PS4 do what Wii never did? Now with Poll back in.

Forums - Sales Discussion - Can PS4 do what Wii never did? Now with Poll back in.

Will PS4 get through 2014 as the highest selling console every week of the year?

Yes 140 50.72%
 
No - Xb one will beat it at least once 55 19.93%
 
No - Wii U will beat it at least once 21 7.61%
 
No - Both Wii U and Xb on... 33 11.96%
 
Don't know/don't care/see results 27 9.78%
 
Total:276
Welfare said:
binary solo said:
Welfare said:
Xbox One already outsold the PS4 one week, Titanfall week. VGC has March US numbers under tracked by over 32k, which was probably taken away from that week, so it is very easy to see that the Xbox One was over PS4 WW for that one week.

32K isn't undertracked. The difference is about 11% and both NPD and VGC have a margin for error. NPD is a more accurate approximation but it is not 100% accurate. At some point in future VGC may adjust by 5% or so, but that adjustment won't all be in Titanfall week. It is possible that VGCwill eventually give that week to Xb one, but there is absolutely no certainty of this. Certainly no one anywhere in the world can provide evidence to refute the number VGC has for Xb one for that week. And in all likelihood VGC has Xb one's worldwide LTD tracked pretty accurately at least through to July.

Also PS4 remains chronically undertracked by about 2-300K. Who's to say PS4 isn't undetracked that week? Especially given PS4's VGC number is 26K less than NPD for March.

32k is under tracked. No other way of looking at it. NPD's margin of error is way lower than VGC's.

PS4 is under tracked 2-300k after August. November 2013 - June 2014 are pretty much an accurate LTD for the PS4. The majority of that 23k would easily go to Infamous week.

VGC once had Xbox One win Titanfall week, but after adjusting March for no reason, ioi had PS4 beat the One.

They could just as easily undertrack the pre-launch week slump, and the 2nd week drop, in both cases. Yes NPD has a much lower MoE than VGC, but that doesn't mean NPD is the absolute stdnard and that any VGC discrepancy is wrong by that exact amount. You and I, and VGC and NPD have no idea what the true sales for any given week are, you no one knows if or by how much the tracking of any given week or month is out. Legitimate under(over)tracking is when the discrepancy for a given time period between a less accurate and more accurate tracking service is significantly outside the MoE and therefore one or other is patently wrong (usually the less accurate system). A 32K discrepancy between NPD and VGC for the month is not a significant enough gap to be regarded as an absolute undertrack necessitating adjustment.

The fact of the matter is there is no unequivocal evidence to show that TF week so undertracked that Xb one actually was the lead console for the week. So VGC is what it is and that's the objective information we go with. You can believe Xb one had higher sales that week, but that's all it is, a belief. My thread is based on objective information that isn't created from my own personal opinion. Everyone knows, and ioi has explained, that the number they post is a most likely number based on their raw data, but that may only have a 60% confidence, if any 2 consoles are within a few % then there is almost as much likelihood of the true positions being the opposite of what is published. But 60% confidence that A is ahead of B is better than 40% confidence of the opposite. And when you do statistics you go with the most likely outcome not the least likely, if you are going to attempt to draw some conclusions. However the people who prefer B to be ahead of A are always able to claim that there is a high chance of this being true, and that is a fair statement, but not a basis for drawing further conslusions or making assumptions.

Also, just because the USA's error for the week is likely to be on the under side does not mean the errors for all other markets are the same. VGC may have over-tracked in other markets which may even things out. So even accepting for argument's sake that the US number for TF week puts Xb one up on PS4 in the USA, it may be that if the rest of the world is over-tracked the overs and unders cancel each other out, and we end up with the same relative positions.  Do we have evidence to support a global undertrack trend for Xb one? My understading is that MS's 5 million shipped announcement, plus whatever people have been able to conclude about LTD shipments up to the end of June suggests VGC worldwide tracking has been OK for Xb one.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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yes it will and it will again in 2015 and 2016



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

binary solo said:
brute said:
I haven't checked the charts, but which week did Wii lose in 2008?

Another thing that got lost in the doube thread debacle. I put this sentence into the original original OP, but it got lost in this duplicate thread.

Wii almost made it in 2008, but it got pipped by PS3 on 14 June 2008.

It's now in the OP.


I happened to be one of those who boosted the PS3 sales that week. I bought the MGS4 bundle the second it came out on June the 12th, it was really exciting!



I dunno, the China launch may have given xbone enough of a boost to beat out ps4 last week, 2015 Halo 5 could well beat ps4, beyond maybe it can.



binary solo said:

That is to be the best selling home console every week for a full year. Wii almost made it in 2008, but it got pipped by PS3 on 14 June 2008.

THE POWA OF MGS4!!

SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!!



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Welfare said:
binary solo said:
Welfare said:
Xbox One already outsold the PS4 one week, Titanfall week. VGC has March US numbers under tracked by over 32k, which was probably taken away from that week, so it is very easy to see that the Xbox One was over PS4 WW for that one week.

 

 

VGC once had Xbox One win Titanfall week, but after adjusting March for no reason, ioi had PS4 beat the One.


It's called PS4 undertracking, not no reason. XB1 did not win that week.



So to quote ioi from the 27 Sept Sales thread http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=191302&page=3 :

"We're estimating about 70k or so for the first week based on some XBL analytics (applying similar useage ratios as in other Asian countries) but clearly this has a fair margin of error. I'd say somewhere between 50 and 80k would be a reasonable range for China week one but there will be a big dropoff."

The gap for 27 Sept week is 65K. I think China needs to be a minimum of 80K for Xb one to to be likely to win China week. Because Xb one had the Fifa bundle boost I expect Xb one to drop off somewhat more than PS4 in the rest of the countries, and there's also the T2 round 2 countries that will also drop off. Counterbalancing that is FH2 launch, but that game has nothing on Fifa for pushing hardware.

I'm guessing PS4 about 180K and Xb one about 170K for China launch week, if Ioi's estimate is right. If it ends up at 80K then it could be very close.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Well, so far China launch week seems to have PS4 narrowly ahead. Will be interesting to see what adjustments do. TBH I think PS4 is a bit on the low side because Shadow of Mordor launched to very good numbers (better than Fifa) in the USA but PS4 is shown as having dropped 9%. I think it's more likely that it was flat or even slightly up.

Europe will have tumbled of course because SoM won;t be a patch on Fifa in those markets. But I still reckon it will have held better than is shown and I wouldn't be surprised to see PS4 adjusted closer to 200K. Xb one rose much higher on launching in several Tier 2 markets and the official Fifa bundle, meaning it would have naturally fallen a lot, but China, SoM and FH2 compensated. So Xb one looks like it's about right.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix