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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Tracking vs. Reality (PS4)

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What do you think about VGChartz tracking of the PS4?

3M+ overtracked 44 6.89%
 
2M+ overtracked 15 2.35%
 
1M+ overtracked 38 5.95%
 
Spot on! 53 8.29%
 
1M+ undertracked 300 46.95%
 
2M+ undertracked 37 5.79%
 
3M+ undertracked 39 6.10%
 
Who cares? 47 7.36%
 
I do care, but won't vote. 44 6.89%
 
TL;DR 21 3.29%
 
Total:638
Danman27 on 01 October 2014
Aura7541 said:
I'm very curious to see how off VGC is going to be when Sony announces that they sold 15 million PS4s.


I would guess around 500,000 undertracked. The general trend so far is overtracking the xbox one and undertracking the ps4. 



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wary-wallaroo on 01 October 2014
Arkaign said:
wary-wallaroo said:
Kerotan said:


I don't believe that excuse at all. They gave the 360 over 1 million imaginary numbers in Germany but won't do it for the PS4? It's common knowledge that the PS4 is undertracked on here for ASIA for starters and probably most of the EU. 

 

WHat were the reasons behind VGchartz being banned on neogaf anyway? 


From what I understand (never actually asked since the mere mention of this can get you banned on GAF), but ioi used to have an account there and often posted data that inflated 360 numbers to make it look better. Eventually, the mods got pissed and just banned it, so they banned ioi's new site as well to make sure the numbers didn't come back (VGC).

 

This is why I find the disparity between treatment of Xbox numbers and PS numbers to be somewhat telling. Not qutie a conspiracy theories when it seems we have at least some facts to back up the assertion. 

Fascinating. Do you have links to any of those threads on there?

FWIW I enjoy VGC and do not intend to attack the site, but it is pretty obvious that regardless of intent the PS4 numbers and Xbox numbers are regularly mistracked (not always, but 'often' enough to be a trend) in opposite directions. X1 was overtracked, and PS4 undertracked.

I just bear that in mind and it's useful to form an accurate analysis by contrasting VGC numbers with NPDs.

We're all human, we all have biases whether we admit it or not. I am somewhat ambivalent towards Sony and negative towards Microsoft myself.


Again, that's the story I've heard on GAF. I've searched for threads and I've seen the threads started by ioi there from a few years ago (and yes, it's clearly inflated for Xbox), but I make no claim of any kind here. Just offering that input. And again, I've never asked myself, I just learned this from those that did ask and were responded to by SalesGAF veterens like Aquamarine.

I enjoy VGC too, it just get's really annoying when it seems different rules apply to PS than those that apply to Xbox numbers. Not to mention, yes, sometimes GAF aggregate predictions tend to be just as accurate as VGC (and I believe even aggregate predictions here do too), and those are complete guesses. 



kinisking on 01 October 2014
wary-wallaroo said:

Yup, sounds about right. To this day, I still don't get why it's only PS consoles that seem to suffer from sometimes severe undertracking. Never seems to be an issue with Xbox, and hell, it's much more prone to being overtracked. I wonder if there's any truth to the whole Neogaf rumors about VGC's banning.

 

I'm sure VGC will put the X1 on top a few weeks this year, before inevitable correcting their mistakes in a few months to show that the X1 didn't actually win a single week. Hell, this week feels incredibly undertracked.


You don't think it'll win China week. 100k on first day. Not including other places and halo mcc? Wow



Ltd predictions by the time 9th Gen comes out

Ps4:110million

Xbox one :75 million( was 65) 

Wii u: 20 milliion

Puppyroach on 01 October 2014

It's great to see these threads, since it shows a real commitment to the site and having as good a tracking as possible. It's why some of us come here actually :). I'm guessing it is undertracked by almost half a million, which hopefully will be somewhat corrected after the quarter shipments are revealed.



wary-wallaroo on 01 October 2014
kinisking said:
wary-wallaroo said:

Yup, sounds about right. To this day, I still don't get why it's only PS consoles that seem to suffer from sometimes severe undertracking. Never seems to be an issue with Xbox, and hell, it's much more prone to being overtracked. I wonder if there's any truth to the whole Neogaf rumors about VGC's banning.

 

I'm sure VGC will put the X1 on top a few weeks this year, before inevitable correcting their mistakes in a few months to show that the X1 didn't actually win a single week. Hell, this week feels incredibly undertracked.


You don't think it'll win China week. 100k on first day. Not including other places and halo mcc? Wow


No I don't, because even without China, the PS4 should easily be outselling it by 100k plus, so that 100k won't put it on top. As I've said before, VGC will put it on top for the week but I've no doubt it'll be adjusted down in the future, just like it happened this year.

And beside, I don't think it did 100k on the first day in China, wasn't that shipped? Or did we get actual confirmation it was all sold through?



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kinisking on 01 October 2014
wary-wallaroo said:
kinisking said:
wary-wallaroo said:

Yup, sounds about right. To this day, I still don't get why it's only PS consoles that seem to suffer from sometimes severe undertracking. Never seems to be an issue with Xbox, and hell, it's much more prone to being overtracked. I wonder if there's any truth to the whole Neogaf rumors about VGC's banning.

 

I'm sure VGC will put the X1 on top a few weeks this year, before inevitable correcting their mistakes in a few months to show that the X1 didn't actually win a single week. Hell, this week feels incredibly undertracked.


You don't think it'll win China week. 100k on first day. Not including other places and halo mcc? Wow


No I don't, because even without China, the PS4 should easily be outselling it by 100k plus, so that 100k won't put it on top. As I've said before, VGC will put it on top for the week but I've no doubt it'll be adjusted down in the future, just like it happened this year.

And beside, I don't think it did 100k on the first day in China, wasn't that shipped? Or did we get actual confirmation it was all sold through?

Wasn't there just a less than 100k difference this week. Why would there be a bigger difference with Russia (15k preorders) the China (100k),uk price cut (should do a 10k boost since fifa is there too)? Besides. A month I can understand. But you seriously don't think halo can pull of a week? You're overestimating the os4 and underestimating the Xbox one imo



Ltd predictions by the time 9th Gen comes out

Ps4:110million

Xbox one :75 million( was 65) 

Wii u: 20 milliion

Aura7541 on 01 October 2014
wary-wallaroo said:

No I don't, because even without China, the PS4 should easily be outselling it by 100k plus, so that 100k won't put it on top. As I've said before, VGC will put it on top for the week but I've no doubt it'll be adjusted down in the future, just like it happened this year.

And beside, I don't think it did 100k on the first day in China, wasn't that shipped? Or did we get actual confirmation it was all sold through?

The 100k was shipped because otherwise, MS would have already clarified that they are sold through a la Sony's 10 million PS4s announcement in Gamescom. Neither have we heard MS saying stuff like "the X1 is selling gangbusters in China and we're struggling to meet up with demand from retailers."



Aura7541 on 01 October 2014
BraLoD said:
Aura7541 said:
I'm very curious to see how off VGC is going to be when Sony announces that they sold 15 million PS4s.


By when do you expect it to be announced? I mean, Sony official 15M report.

I would say after Black Friday.



wary-wallaroo on 01 October 2014
kinisking said:

Wasn't there just a less than 100k difference this week. Why would there be a bigger difference with Russia (15k preorders) the China (100k),uk price cut (should do a 10k boost since fifa is there too)? Besides. A month I can understand. But you seriously don't think halo can pull of a week? You're overestimating the os4 and underestimating the Xbox one imo

There was less than 100k difference this week, again, because I think the PS4 is being heavily undertracked. This will no doubt be rectified to show the actual case after we have actuals (and even then, VGC will takes it's sweet time before bumping the PS4 up as they should). The PS4 number provided for the week makes absolutley zero sense

 

Aura7541 said:
wary-wallaroo said:

No I don't, because even without China, the PS4 should easily be outselling it by 100k plus, so that 100k won't put it on top. As I've said before, VGC will put it on top for the week but I've no doubt it'll be adjusted down in the future, just like it happened this year.

And beside, I don't think it did 100k on the first day in China, wasn't that shipped? Or did we get actual confirmation it was all sold through?

The 100k was shipped because otherwise, MS would have already clarified that they are sold through a la Sony's 10 million PS4s announcement in Gamescom. Neither have we heard MS saying stuff like "the X1 is selling gangbusters in China and we're struggling to meet up with demand from retailers."

That's what I'm assuming too. And even if they did sell through 100k, the PS4 should still be on top (again, once adjustments come in). 



DaltonAbbey on 01 October 2014
kinisking said:
wary-wallaroo said:

Yup, sounds about right. To this day, I still don't get why it's only PS consoles that seem to suffer from sometimes severe undertracking. Never seems to be an issue with Xbox, and hell, it's much more prone to being overtracked. I wonder if there's any truth to the whole Neogaf rumors about VGC's banning.

 

I'm sure VGC will put the X1 on top a few weeks this year, before inevitable correcting their mistakes in a few months to show that the X1 didn't actually win a single week. Hell, this week feels incredibly undertracked.


You don't think it'll win China week. 100k on first day. Not including other places and halo mcc? Wow


By My Math(TM) China had to sell +65k first week for xb1 to beat ps4. if 100k was sold through then it did it, if it was shipped it depends on how much was sold through. 

MCC week is doubtful, will surely win US but still lose every other region. Will depend on how big the gaps are in each of them.