I think Nintendo will just be happy if they break even on the game. Of course judging by those Japanese preorders that's going to be difficult.

You think it will do 350k first week but not manage a million lifetime in the same OP?

Lol. A weird look at the situation, for sure.

Thats what happens when Nintendo can only get Niche companies whom are held back by last gen tech to make exclusives for them. I wonder what Platinums Xbox exclusive will look like when finally realized.

Ok, my projection for FW in Japan was spot on (30k - 40k), I hope the rest of the world also fall in line and the game reaches 200k FW.

LOL people have gone crazy about Bayo2! I cannot understand why some fans are soooo negative when there is gonna be a game with lots of potential. I mea, hey! Even ZombiU has sold 1 million (retail and eshop). It is very possible Bayo2 to sell even more than 1 million.

The way I see it this game has every chance of selling over a million copies lifetime, mainly because the 1st game sold over 2 million across PS3, 360 and it was very well liked by that install base, so there's already more than a million people that may like the franchise and want a sequel.
Many people (like me) do own both of those consoles, would like to play this and don't have the factor of the 1st game not being available on Wii U holding us back from buying a Wii U to play this game (plus Wii U isn't exactly expensive), so one game doesn't have to be a system seller when you've got two in a single package for a reasonable price.

The potential install base for this game could very well be higher than 2 million because more people than those that already played the 1st game could buy it.

Wii U seems to be gaining a good line-up of titles, that when you look at the breadth of exclusives is actually starting to make it seem like a good console to complement other platforms, at least as far as I'm concerned.

yeah it sold that much after it hit bargain bins. And it was released on TWO consoles that both have sold 80mil+ each. Even discounting MP owners that has to be a combined install of 100mil. so 2 mil sold is nothing to be proud of and lets be real here Wii U isnt going to get anyhwhere near the install base of either PS3 or xbox360

It doesn't really matter in the context of this debate what price the game sold for on PS3 and 360 (TBH the majority of most game sales, even the highest scoring titles likely had huge sales at bargain prices compared to launch price). The point was that the series has that install base. If the game's good enough or people loved the 1st one enough then they'll likely want the sequel. Wii U doesn't have to sell over 100 million units of hardware to eventually sell 2 million copies of this game or even a little over a million, it just has to be a good enough game to interest it's target audience and gain enough marketing to let those people know it exists.

Exactly and it was a new IP, had crappy graphics and got mixed to bad reviews.

I still haven't heard a convincing argument why despite Bayo1 selling 2 million on PS360 and this being insufficient to justify a sequel, why selling 1 million on Wii U (if it even gets that far) will be a 'success' for Nintendo. I mean I know Platinum doesn't care because they've already been paid, but Nintendo will want to make that money back.

We're only guessing the breakdown of costs for developing and publishing a game. But Sega had the numbers, knew exactly what Bayo1 cost to make and revenue it generated, and decided not to proceed with its sequel. That should tell you that unless Bayo2 is significantly cheaper than Bayo1 to make (despite being from reviews a larger, more fleshed out game), then 1 million sales isn't going to be enough to cover the cost of Bayo2 AND the port of Bayo1.

Sure, its on one console instead of two, but developing the game engine is only a small part of the total game development, the creation of all the graphic and sound assets, level design,voice acting, etc, are shared across platforms. Developing a game for one console is unlikely to be significantly cheaper than developing for two or more. Actually, with the port of Bayo1, effectively it has cost them the same as releasing on multiple platforms, because they've had to rewrite Bayo1 for the Wii U, making 1 million sales even less likely to generate a profit for Nintendo than before.