Guys, I want to apologize for failing to get a contribution into the dawn of day 1.
I will not be available much this week either I'm afraid but I will do my best to contribute. *Please understand*
To start, I would like to post some notes I've taken during the night. They were mostly written as of the moment Nickles posted a solid analysis of Carl. I have struggled to catch up on 5 days worth of posts so I will offer an update ASAP. Here are my early notes in the meantime.
My reads so far.
Nickles laying traps for mafia. Playing very fairly. Here is a good example: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6663674. Being very analytical. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6665582
Carl accuses Nickles of using a poor trap that is offering a guilt-free lynch train day 1. Suspects Nickles for it.
Carl assumes day talk and uses a case of coaching amongst Nickles’ scummates to assume it. HoS Carl.
Carl seems to assume 3 mafia factions in early rvs quote post. Sure it is a joke post, sure it is an rvs post, but it is a clue. That is all town has to identify scum. (Similar tell for Impertinence). We still don’t know if the 3 races are in this game, but we do know that to assume 3 factions, it’s already a step ahead of assuming 1 faction at the time (we only knew of terrans).
Carl-Astro coaching. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6669123
Trucks supports Carl’s idea that Nickles’ self-vote obfuscates vote intent. Both Trucks and Carl may be misunderstanding Nickles’ play. True it may not be an excellent strategy, but I can’t see it as a scum tell on Nickles, especially given Nickles’ extensive analysis on Carl (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6665582). However in this case I’m inclined to believe that Trucks is town and Carl is mafia, by virtue of the aforementioned slips and by virtue of Carl’s twisting of facts, and that Trucks in contrast may simply be misunderstanding in a town vs town conundrum. I hold a FoS on Trucks for siding with Carl, but not more.
Despite Impertinence’s 3-race slip, I get a town read from how he read Carl’s misread of Nickles’ dogpile comment as scum paranoia. (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6663850)
I also like how he taunted Nickles in a scum trap here. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6663607. Town tell on this.
Spurgey seems town. His critical thinking of all players (Nickles, myself) with no preferential treatment gives me a town read on him. Him tunneling on me is typically Spurge.
Radish is Radish as usual. I can’t possibly see how he can opt for a no lynch on day 1, but alas. Nevertheless all the no lynch talk diverts town’s attention from proper investigations and for that reason I sense protoss scum.
Sparks is buddying Carl and casting suspicion on Nickles. I see that as scum protecting scum. Though mind you Sparks did a lot of things last game which made him look scummy, this game he’s playing very differently, almost too cautious. I don’t completely blame him, but I can’t help to be suspicious.
Wonk I don’t like this post. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6666869 At this point Nickles had already jumped from one person to another, and had to go through an FoS then a vote to actually land on Carl with a definite vote. Wonk saying that Nickles was bandwagoning at that stage in the game is “wonky” logic.
Cone The fact that he didn’t notice Carl’s two possible slips (multi-faction and day talk) is mind-boggling. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6667115 Apparently, to him, Carl destroyed Nickles’ arguments. mmhm
I will be voting for Carl once I've finished briding my reads of page 5 to page 7 at 100ppp (I've read parts of the end and most of the beginning).
One thing I never liked about this post is that this was padib's first post on day 2.
It includes nickles (who died during the night), but doesn't include hylian. Is that because padib didn't know nickles would be killed but did know hylian would be dead?