That was it's first year on the market. Brand grew over in 2007-2010. Look at the yearly charts.

This is the biggest point of all.

PS4 sales will increase. What can we attribute that to?

WiiU sales will increase. What can we attribute that to?

Of course XB1 sales will increase. Can we attribute that to Tier2? Not necessarily, even if we got some figures showing 2k here, 6k there, etc, because those sales rates are at some degree already counting as XB1 sales FROM import territories. Europe is awash in import consoles at major retailers all over the place, it's cake in basically all EU and Eastern European Tier2 countries to get an XB1 already, at a great price (in some cases better than the 'official' prices due to heavy discounting/bundling in Germany/etc).

The real test will be any changes in global gap. Will the average % of sales differential increase or decrease? Will the raw number differential increase or decrease?

This month?

25%

Baseline?

5 to 10%

See, that's the trick though. If PS4 in September is 25% (probably a lot higher honestly) higher in sales than August, what could we attribute that to?

We lack the proper context for this because we're headed into much busier months starting NOW.

It would be a failure of absolutely magnificent proportions if September wasn't larger than July or August.

But if PS4 rises at a higher % than XB1 does from August to September globally, does that mean Tier2 did nothing? No, not really.

The problem for this whole thing is that it's impossible to know how much impact this has. As noted, 'new' sales in Tier2 after official launch may coincide with lower sales from countries that they import from. And simultaneously, if 'import' XB1s are freely available at a cheaper price than 'official' XB1s in particular countries, then sales might appear to be a total disaster in that country, but in reality the country may be buying a fair number of them (but those sales count for the country of import origin, not inside that particular country).

But this is the XBOs first year in the market as well, and it has less japanese appealing games than the 360.

You know that in japan the ps4 is at 6k and the wiiu at 8 ?

And You expect the one to do 3/5k per week ? (on bad weeks ?) It wil be 500/700 per week in japan probably after the launch.

Anyway, the tiers 2 country for the 360 represented something like 10% of the total martket, so if we add 10% to the current numbers of the xbox one (50k/60k), then i think it will be something between 5k/7k boost.

Well, this isn't true. It's launching with Forza 5 and DR3, both of which make X1 far more appealing the 360's launch lineup.

It doesn't have Blue Dragon, LO, Infiniute Undiscovery, Tales of Vesperia, SO4, etc. on the way though.

I will refrase:

With the new territories the XOne sales will be 25% higher than it would be without. Sales will probably incrise more due to Destiny and pre hollydays sales. Sales start to rise in September and grow until November and stays flat in December. The 25% effect will be deluted month over month untill it´s close to normal sales rate.

It´s fairly ease to estimate the impact of these new territories in the base line sales, just look at the ratio of previous generation and how PS4 is doing right now. You can assume the XOne could do better or worst than the PS360 or the PS4, and trace a projection. 

The question isn't what it'll do in 6-8 months, but what's going to happen after September. 

That is in the bad months of Summer.

It could be close to 50k or more in the Hollydays season.