Let us look at some facts, at least facts insofar as acceptance of VGC data goes:
PS3 monthly sales for first 2 full calendar years (2007 and 2008):
- 2007 - Lowest month =240K (Feb 2007 before Europe and rest of world launch), highest month (excl Nov and Dec) = 985K (March EU and RoW launch month), Nov + Dec = 3.56 million. Full year sales = 7.9 million
- 2008 - Lowest month = 489K (July), highest month (excl Nov & Dec) = 1 million (January), Nov+Dec = 3.4 million. Full year sales = 10.4 million
Xbox360 monthly sales for first 2 full calendar years (2006 and 2007)
- 2006 - lowest month = 298K (August), highest month (excl Nov & Dec) = 483K (April), Nov+Dec = 2.9 million. Full year sales = 6.8 million
- 2007 - Lowest month = 267K (July), highest month (excl Nov & Dec) = 824K (Sept, price cut?), Nov+Dec = 3.2 million. Full year sales = 7.9 million
Wii U monthly sales for first 2 full calendar years (2013 and 2014(YTD))
- 2013 - lowest month = 94K (May), highest month (excl Nov & Dec) = 217K (March), Nov+Dec = 1.6 million. Full year sales = 3.1 million
- 2014 (YTD) - lowest month = 119K (May), highest month (excl Nov & Dec) = 383K (June but there's sill Aug-Oct), Nov+Dec = TBC. Full year sales (YTD) = 1.7 million
Wii U's best month in its first full year was worse than PS3's worst month, and PS3's worst month was before it had launched in the EU. In its second full year Wii U's best month was better than 360's worst month, but well short of PS3's worst month. It's Nov+ Dec sales for its first full year were significantly less than 360 and PS3. Indeed Wii U's FULL YEAR sales for 2013 were less than PS3's 2007 Nov+Dec.
What does that tell us? While people think PS3 was a disaster, it in fact has had the best start, by a considerable margin out of these 3 consoles. That PS3 was eclipsed by the Wii, and 360 already had a 5 million lead, and the weight of expectation from PS2 is what makes PS3's start look so bad. But in fact it was a pretty good start, and you can see that the seeds of a successful sales (albeit not profitable) generation (except compared to PS2) were there from the start.
You can also see that by the end of PS3's second full year on the market it was on the cusp of passing GC's LTD. So in now way shape or form can one say that PS3's early generation was not a solid set up for how it ended up selling. Basically PS3 was a financial disaster, but it was never really a sales disaster.
And by the end of Xbox360's second full year on the market it was well over half way to Xbog's LTD, being at 15 million in sales and only 9 million short. With Xbox 360 off to a reasonable start it is fairly clear that 360 was in for a considerable improvement over Xbog. However most people would have said 50 million was Xb 360's likely LTD. So doesn't that qualify Xb360 as a late bloomer? Well not really. Xbox 360 road the wave of the motion control craze, it was not Xbox360 in itself, nor any existing franchises that gave Xbox 360 its second wind. It was Kinect, and without Kinect Xbox 360 would have faded fast. Xbox was not a late bloomer, but it did get a second wind. And those are two different things. And the fact remains, Xbox 360 was always on for a signifiant expansion over and above Xbog even it it had followed a normal console cycle trajectory and peaked in its 3rd year (as it looked like it had done when 2009 was 1 million less than 2008).
So, how do people believe Wii U's trajectory will be different with some sort of mythical late bloom that just does not seem to have ever happened in home console sales history? Games? well yes games are necessary to sell a console. But SSB is literally the last of the big names for Wii U. Nintendo has played all of it's aces except for SSB. The only >10 million seling Wii game left to be given an outing is Super Marion Galaxy, and SMG2 sold significantly less than SMG, so who knows whether the galaxy name has much pulling power in it? Not as much as the Mario games that are already out and not as much as SSB.
Nintendo has a strong B-list no doubt, peobably the best B-list, quality wise, of any of the big 3. But the pulling power of the B-list just isn't the same. The B list can and will help Wii U keep on selling through the generation, but they can't cause a late bloom.
Price cuts? Price cuts will hapen with all the consoles, they have a predicatble effect, they will help sustain Wii U sales but they will not cause a late bloom, because PS4 and Xb one will also have lower priced consoles and they will continue to claim their share of the market.
People will buy a second console late in the gneration, and it will mostly be Wii U? I'm not so sure about that, and 2nd console buyers are not so numerous as to cause a late bloom phenomenon.
Amiibo? Maybe, they are Skylanders Nintendo style right? So not so much an innovation, and I think will primarily appeal to the Nintendo fans, who already have or are already going to buy Wii U and help it on its way to 20-25 million. That's not late bloom. But it could become huge, maybe, I don't think it wil. It will sell well in it's own right probably.
Nintendo will innovate the next gimmick, like with Wiimote. Gimmicks can certainly capture the market, and this is what I think could cause that late bllom, though more of a second wind like Kinect was. But this is blind optimism because there's nothig on the horizon that looks like the spiritual successor to Wiimote.
Late blooms Just don't happen.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
