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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Why can't the U just be a late bloomer?

 

Will the U be a late bloomer?

Yes 203 68.35%
 
No 93 31.31%
 
Total:296

It could be a late bloomer, but lets be honest with each other, the chances are low, very low.



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no support from third parties



Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.

People believe the Wii U will sell less than the GameCube because of its current sales and low third party support compared to the PS4, One, and even the Wii. As a result, predictions of Wii U being a late bloomer will receive a lot of criticism. Yes, predictions of high PS3 lifetime sales in the early last gen were correct. However, these predictions were criticized because of PS3's initial low sales. There's a reason why some people use the "Specific Game" will save the Wii U joke. Its the same one used against those PS3 sale predictions.

In hindsight all of PS3 games, price cuts, and brand power from PlayStation contributed to the high PS3 large lifetime sales today. But since we are looking at Wii U's sale getting bigger in the present, optimistic prediction of Wii U's sales will receive the same criticism as the optimistic predictions of PS3 sales in the past.



RealGamingExpert said:
DerNebel said:
 

Metroid...reaaally?

People have been asking for Metroid since years.

It will sell systems to another audience than just Nintendo fans.

Well, if it's good of course.

Why should an almost 30 year old Nintendo franchise suddenly sell to other audiences than the Nintendo fans?

Also looking at sales Metroid really isn't that big of a franchise, so I don't see how that is one of the "real big bullets" when something like DK or Mario 3D world apparently isn't.



No...



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padib said:
Teeqoz said:


No, It averages roughly 80k until some crazy boost (~700k in one week) sometime in march lifts it up over 100k weekly

Why are you saying No, have you looked at the hardware graph? What chart are you using?

I am looking at the hardware chart, and here is what I see (starting Feb 3rd where I see baseline start):

Feb 03 70k
Feb 10 67k
Feb 17 53k
Feb 24 50k
Mar 03 80k
Mar 10 80k
Mar 17 60k
Mar 24 603k*
Mar 31 162k*
Apr 07 118k*
Apr 14 97k*
Apr 21 83k*
Apr 28 78k
May 05 80k
May 12 70k
May 19 65k
May 26 65k
Jun 02 63k
Jun 09 59k
Jun 16 60k
Jun 23 58k
Jun 30 61k
Jul 07 63k

With an average baseline (which ignores peaks and downslopes which are not baseline, marked in bold-italics) of: 65.7k

So I was off by 5k. Sue me?


But why're you starting at Feb 03 and stopping at Jul 07? The sales jump to 90k in the week ending Jul 14 without any big releases, while it's at 74, 79, and90k respectively in the three weeks before Feb 03.

 

I'll admit though that my first comment where I asked if you had checked the numbers I only started at the corresponding week of the year (Aug 25th) and only checked the weeks close to that, so that's why I was off on my numbers there.

 

And you still haven't told me why you're comparing PS3 first year sales with Wii U second year sales.

 

Oh and, I edited my comment that you quoted because when I first made it I had only checked the four weeks straight after the crazy boost, and I assumed that it was a baseline boost. Straight after I had commented that I went back to the numbers and saw that it didn't get a baseline of ~100k that I assumed so I changed my comment.



DerNebel said:

Why should an almost 30 year old Nintendo franchise suddenly sell to other audiences than the Nintendo fans?

Also looking at sales Metroid really isn't that big of a franchise, so I don't see how that is one of the "real big bullets" when something like DK or Mario 3D world apparently isn't.

I didn't say that Metroid is going to sell a lot, but it's definitely giving core gamers another reason to want a Wii U.

Once the library has enough to offer for that audience they might consider it.

DK and Mario 3D World on the other side appeal to plattforming fans and they should already have the Wii U by now.



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https://www.youtube.com/user/RealGamingExpert

Many reasons.

Just the first few that spring to my head:

- Late bloomers normally have long tail ends of their lifespan. Nintendo consoles tend not to have particularly long tail. PS360; PS2 etc. all got boosted (or are being boosted) by third parties continuing to release games cross-gen, making them attractive long after the platform holder has moved on to something else. WiiU doesn't have much third-party support in the start of its life; it's not going to have any towards the end of its life.

- PS4 has shown that consumers will rush out and buy a console despite it having not many particularly noteworthy games. During the same period of WiiU's life, it was selling appallingly. I'd put this down to the fact that, quite frankly, it's an unappealing console due to its power and controller. There's nothing that can change that at this point; only price cuts can soften the blow.

- Nothing Nintendo has shown or has hinted at for WiiU has any kind of particular game-changing potential. Mario Kart is a "safe" game. Smash is a "safe" game. Next year's lineup is full of existing franchises with Splatoon thrown in, a game which may well be great but I don't think has much chance of becoming a craze. A craze is what is needed to really propel the console into the upper leagues at this point. I suppose you could say Amiibo has potential, but to me it's just their attempt at cashing in on a craze which started 3 years ago and isn't so much a craze anymore.

If Nintendo keep producing WiiU's and keep making games for it then it'll keep selling. I'm sure it'll sell at least double its LTD sales by this date. If by that definition it'll be a late bloomer to you, then sure, it certainly can be a "late bloomer". It'll have a good holiday. Smash will help. Amiibo might do something. But I don't think any of these things are going to propel WiiU to any kind of levels of success.

 

Edit: Oh, and I forgot the most important thing: Negative stigma.  It's an uphill struggle to remove that, and WiiU has a pretty bad stigma among gamers at the moment. 



No 3rd party thats why.

And kart was no major savior. Just look at ndp.



I think it's very likely. Most Nintendo console start off their lives selling good (or in Wii's case great) and then after about 4-5 years the numbers drop. I think 2013 might have been Wii U's year of amnestyand maybe we'll see more support later on in its life, where the Wii lost it after 2010



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Thanks for all the great memories!