So those who say 100 million PS4s sold is impossible, either consider the overall market for game consoles to be smaller than previous generations (the 7th in particular), which may well be true as a sizable portion of the Wii consumer base won't be buying another console this generation, or consider that unforeseen events will result in the PS4 losing marketshare over the duration of the 8th gen.

Either is plausible, but saying that the console market will remain healthy enough to sustain similar sales and that the PS4 will continue to outperform the XBO and Wii U seems more likely, making that 100 million sold number seem more plausible by comparison.

If it really did sell 10M already in less than a year it's looking good. However, if PS4 doesn't last very long, like only 5 years, that is impossible.

I dont think we can make an accurate prediction until PS3 hits end of life. It will hit that number +20-40million taken back from MS. Im not sure why anyone thinks the console market is shrinking, but you never know that could play out.

Only reason numbers may be lower(IMO obviously) is I dont know how long Sony/MS will support their devices this time around. Both consoles are considerably weaker than PS3/360 were to the technology of that time.

Possible? I think 100 Million is all but guaranteed. I'm thinking more along the lines of 120 million

I don't see the PS4 lasting long enough to get to 100 million.

With this new "fighting with PCs" gameplan, they will have to plan a hardware upgrade sooner or later. They are already starting to slip on the price-to-performance issue by the most basic midrange of PCs, and this is only going to get worse as new GPUs/CPUs/etc come out and push down the price of older hardware which was comparable or better than anything in the PS4.

When AMD launches the next wave of Athlon budget chips for mad overclocking, and the new wave of GPUs to kick down the price of everything below the R9 280, you're going to be able to build a budget PC <$400 with far better hardware than the PS4. Once that starts happening, Sony will have issues, I think. Especially if the whole "1080p/60FPS" fight continues to run into delays or "cannot get it".

Meh, PS4 will not last long, and the PS2 had no smartphone and tablet competition, also the PS2 had the DVD-player killer app.

I'm a huge PC gamer, but only a tiny percentage of gamers are both able and willing to build their own. Leaving them with prebuilts. I do think PC gaming will continue to grow, but not explode. What is going to happen : Nintendo will bring a new more powerful unit closer to ps4 level in 2016 or 17 at the latest, but it will launch at 249 or less. Ps4 will be 299 by holiday 2015, and 249 or less by holiday 2016. Microsoft will begin killing xb1 investment and support beginning in 2016 (really a bit before, but it will be most visible in 2016 onward). Xb1 will end sales in 2017 at the latest. Microsoft will transition to making PC games, and later possibly games for other platforms. That will mean no big pressure to replace ps4, and we're on for a 8-10 year gen.

This is overestimating the size of the gaming PC market. Yes, the overall market is by far the largest, but the number of gaming PCs that are custom built remains a minority share of the overall PC gaming market. It goes without saying that the market for $300 and higher VGA card set ups is equally in the minority.

Even when $100 VGA cards can outperform consoles, you're still looking at the smaller desktop PC market, which while larger than the custom built gaming PC market, is still a shrinking market. 

That said, the PS4 and XBO do seem like they were built, spec-wise, around a 5 year product cycle compared to the 7th gen. This is not to say that either or both won't see continued support and sales well beyond 5 years. 

I wasn't really talking about the >300$ price cards, I meant that as the next renditions (R9 285 for example) comes in, all the cards below it around to get cut down in price. This includes old cards which used to be >100$ coming down to or around 100$. So even if many buy prebuilt (which, honestly, I sort of doubt) the specs in the prebuilts, even the cheapos, will be getting better and better.

That said, I agree that the PS4/XBO seem built for much shorter lifespans. They just didn't start out with the same "oomph" the 7th generation in terms of tech gap. But once the PS5/XBEleven come out, the PS4/XBO will sales will start to fall off but that rate is hard to guess at so it may well march its way, albeit slowly, to 100m.

I got a head "ace" from your post too. ;p

OT: No doubt in my mind PS4 will reach 100m, even PS3 is going to end up near that.

The market will decline, but the bulk of that decline will be on Xbox and Nintendo.