You are right, as soon as the people in tier 2 stop importing from tier 1, the baseline for tier 1's will be lower so it will cushing the efect of the bump. Even tou, more people may buy it now since the prices could be lowered from official launch, altho its unlikely, most contrys charge a high import tax and both microsoft and retailers have to make a profit. So sales wont spike as much as people think.

Not even in your dreams would it get a 50k launch week, for a console already available and not favorable to beging with. The most we will see is like a 20k bump while the other tier 1 gets like a 6-10k reduction and after the initial week the baseline will have increasted by like 2-5k. These are tier 2 for a reason, they sell combiened 50k in like 3-5 months.

Your hopes are the most unrialstic for japan. If the ps4 cant manage a 10k baseling with more games that apeal to the japanese market, why would the x1 even launch at 20k? I expect like a 5k-10k launch then drop to sub 1k.

TLOU 1M on VGC, so 1,5M at least in reality

Yeah, for one whole week. then wii u is back above it.

I'm curious to see Destiny effect on X1, Watch Dogs had no effect, some people said it's because of hte price cut, still, it didnt get a big boost after price cut.

I bet it will only get a boost of 100k maximum.

^ this.

People dont seem to realise that multyplats only give the x1 a one week boost and not even that big. The week after sales will go back to awful. The only thing is that on october and november there are a lot of games releasing so we will have to wait untill january to see the real baseline, wich I belive will be around 50k and slowly go down to under 30k in the following 3 months, then a boost for another week when witcher and batman come out, then sad again. But this time it will continue to be bad untill the summer for quantom brake wich will give like a 2-3 week boost then under 40k again untill the holidays.

Well price/performance on 8th gen the best win all should be happy !

True, first time in the history the winner has the best price for the best quality. So it's really stupid to say it's not deserved when the PS4 is the console deserving it the most among all the winners through gaming history.

And now we got the information that new bundles, one with physical mario 3d world + nintendo land and another with Mk8 + nintendoland will release mid september. considering xone is quite overtracked in US, it's weekly baseline is 10k lower than vg chartz currently shows. so it's possible it won't be above wii u even on destiny week. but the new bundles followed by bayo 2 and fatal frame on japan + Hyrule warriors on west on the following weeks will make sure xone won't be ahead of wii u for more than a week or two.

I think people are massively overstating the impact of MCC, it will primarily sell to xb1 owners who are already on board, the most die hard brand fans. 360 showed that the US has no brand loyalty in the larger market space. And the inertia that ps4 gets from destiny will be an unstoppable force. The only chance x1 has is for ps4 shortages to be widespread, a very real possibility, then they can hope to convince impatient buyers to go with the x1 instead of waiti

I had no idea about those bundles. I thought for sure that september would go in x1's favor, but if what you say is true then the wii us momentum will just keep going strong. 

But what are the prices for those bundles? Still $300 I hope.