Some people have been saying that Sept-Dec console sales comes out to be roughly double Jan-Aug sales for the same year. Meaning predictions are going around saying PS4 will be at 20 million by the end of the year. This 1:2 ratio may well be true for most years, or as an average, but when you look at the first full year of a console's life cycle the ratio seems to be closer to 1:1.

Wii's first full year it was roughly 1:1

360's first full year is was a bit over 1:1

PS3's first full year was about 1:1

Wii U's was 1:1.67 but that came with a price cut, but is still well short of 1:2

So as it seems like PS4 is heading for about 5.5 million for the year to 1 Sept, it means we're looking at around 6 million for Sept to Dec (give or take half a million). And as PS4 LTD is going to be at roughly 10.3-10.5 million for the LTD to 1 Sept, that means 16.3-16.5 million LTD.

I think 16 million LTD is a very safe bet, and 17 million is quite possible. But I think it will be stretching it to go much beyond 17 million LTD by 1 Jan 2015.

The picture of course is not rosy for Xb one if the 1:1 ratio for first full year holds true. For Xb one we're looking at around 2.3 million by 1 Sept, so we are looking at possibly no more than 3 million for the rest of the year. To give Xb one a grand total of around 8 million by 1 January 2015.

Wii U being in its second full year should get closer to the 1:2 level, which means it should also do about 3 million from 1 Sept to 1 Jan. And that will put it at 10 million LTD by 1 Jan.

Except PS4 is not selling like a first year consoles now is it, no reason why its xmas sales would be held to such low standards.

Its price and domination kinda throw any comparison out the window.

Yeah. Its possible. I predict 17 million.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=187909

Agreed. I would add that I think one of the undersestimated and major factor for the PS4 selling pattern is the PS4 production. Any leading console has always been extremely supply constrained on its first full year, especially the Wii. Without supply constraints, the Wii could have gone a lot higher than 1:1. The PS4 has an excellent and increasing production from the very beginning. It should realize its potential of sales on Christmas and vastly sell over 1:1. My bet !

the Wii wasn't selling like a first year console either, yet it still didn't beat the ratio >_>

i think 16 million is impossible.

ps4 sales in japan not are good, there aren´t japanase games that helps to sell consoles there.

if ps4 had japanase important games, now ps4 could have about 12 million systems sold worldwide.

i think it could be possible sell to the end of the year about 12-14 million.

september white ps4 bundel with destiny maybe sony gets about 1 million month for that pack.

august, october, november and december ps4 recives many games so the sales will be higger that weeks ago.

remenber: infamouse first light, driveclub, little big planet 3, walking dead, walking dead 2, wolf among us, assassins creed unity, fifa 15, pro evolution 15, wwe 2k15, nba 2k15, nfl 15, nhl 15, project cars, call of duty, lords of shadow, lords of fallen, destiny, injustice, warriors orochi 3, natural doctrine, sherlock holmes, shadow warrior, minecraft, alien isolation, raven´s cry, lego batman 3, the evil within, samurai warriors 4, project cars, far cry 4, dragon age, the crew, lara croft temple of osiris, etc..

more than 40 games in less than 4 months.

shouldnt be making anymore ps4 predictions after your PS4 will go below 100K WW weekly

no PS4 wont only sell 6M from now till end of year Sept is 1-1.5M Oct again 1-1.5M Nov we know BF will be 1M and in Dec we should see 2 weeks of 1M so thats 5M-6M right there

i do like your OP and kitlers analysis of 2X sales yous should post in here although i include july and aug
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=186376&page=1#

im personally thinking it will meet my goal or be very close to it 5% off but it all depends heavily on GTA5 if it dont release this yr than it wont happen

PS4 will sell between 18,000,000 and 20,000,000 by end of year.

Do you think that it is possible for Sony to surpass the Gamecube before this fiscal year ends? That means nearly 22 million consoles by the first of April 2015?

No wait!! I'll put the following in my signature: PS4 at 25 million by 31st March

Yeah, I could see 16m by January 1st, 2015. It'll beat my original prediction of around 15m; won't be at the 18m+ others have predicted.