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Forums - Sales Discussion - 16th August HW up; + adjustments; PS4 at 9.9M

ICStats on 27 August 2014
kitler53 said:
ICStats said:
kitler53 said:
Yafea said:
I'm keeping my numbers low to surprise myself later :P but with the upcoming holidays and all the game, especially destiny. I think 15 is more likely, probably 16-17, heck maybe even 18 million by then.


which numbers are you predicting?  16M is a reasonable prediction for ps4 sales in 2014 but LTD at the end of 2014 will be about 21M.

Huh, PS4 is not likely to sell another 11 Million by the end of the year.  16-17 Million LTD by end of 2014 is reasonable.

go check our database if you don't believe me but year after year,. system after system,.. historical presedence says that:

(sales in jan-aug) x 2 ~= (sales in sept - dec)

run the numbers for all the systems for the last 5 years and you'll see that factor always lands between 1.8 and 2.4.

even with 2 weeks of data missing in august,.. ps4 as sold 5.3M units so far so ~10.6M in sept-dec should be a reasonable expectation.

I ran the numbers for PS3 & X360 (posted a about it a week or two ago) and it's not a solid 2X.  There's a range from around 1X to 2X.  Historically 2X range is in the best case scenarios with price cuts and blockbuster games launching.

PS4 hasn't had a price cut and doesn't have such a big title releasing, so I'm expecting between 1.2X & 1.5X, so 6.5~8 Million.  10+ Million would be outstanding.



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AZWification on 27 August 2014
CGI-Quality said:
North America = 51,601
Globally = 48,259

My eyes must be deceiving me!

Those X1 sales are obviously globally in the... ah, fuck it! :-S



                
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Mystro-Sama on 27 August 2014

Phil right now:

 



GribbleGrunger on 27 August 2014

God only knows what will happen when the PS4 starts getting more Japanese centric games. Hopefully TGS delivers and we'll start to see 20k - 25k averages in Japan with decent spikes when great games release. For me, it's feasible that the PS4 could see an average of 180k - 220k weekly in WW sales next year (IF Japanese devs pull their fingers out)



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Burek on 27 August 2014

An appeal to all people in Tier 1 countries:
"Please buy more XOnes! It's a perfectly good console. Every week of poor sales just brings another multiplatform franchise closer to timed exclusivity moneyhat."

I am scared to think that some might even go full exclusive if this trend continues.



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Yafea on 27 August 2014

The 9.9 is killing me. I want to see the big 10 on the front page.



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Clyde32 on 27 August 2014
GribbleGrunger said:
God only knows what will happen when the PS4 starts getting more Japanese centric games. Hopefully TGS delivers and we'll start to see 20k - 25k averages in Japan with decent spikes when great games release.


I doubt that one. It's hard enough for the Vita to get that average.



MRKs on 27 August 2014

Doomtrain's next stop : Microsoft XboxOne  :P



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Teeqoz on 27 August 2014
Ka-pi96 said:
Yay new numbers
Europe > N. America for PS4 Woooooooooooohoooooooo! Europe FTW!


Just wait. Someday, 

Europe > Global numbers for PS4.



GribbleGrunger on 27 August 2014
Clyde32 said:
GribbleGrunger said:
God only knows what will happen when the PS4 starts getting more Japanese centric games. Hopefully TGS delivers and we'll start to see 20k - 25k averages in Japan with decent spikes when great games release.


I doubt that one. It's hard enough for the Vita to get that average.

The Vita is clearly fighting against an established handheld brand AND mobile phones. The PS4 is a different proposition.



 

The PS5 Exists.